A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ResiliNet improves distributed neural network inference resilience.
New algorithm estimates eigenspace with faulty nodes, matching performance of existing methods.
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered as special cases. To uni…
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing individual banks; associated with each node is a balance sheet consisting of assets and …
Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.
We give the first efficient algorithm for learning the structure of an Ising model that tolerates independent failures; that is, each entry of the observed sample is missing with some unknown probability p. Our algorithm matches the essentially optimal runtime and sample complexity bounds of recent work for learning Is…
Credit networks represent a way of modeling trust between entities in a network. Nodes in the network print their own currency and trust each other for a certain amount of each other's currency. This allows the network to serve as a decentralized payment infrastructure---arbitrary payments can be routed through the net…
To improve the resilience of distributed training to worst-case, or Byzantine node failures, several recent approaches have replaced gradient averaging with robust aggregation methods. Such techniques can have high computational costs, often quadratic in the number of compute nodes, and only have limited robustness gua…
Machine learning has begun to play a central role in many applications. A multitude of these applications typically also involve datasets that are distributed across multiple computing devices/machines due to either design constraints (e.g., multiagent systems) or computational/privacy reasons (e.g., learning on smartp…
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic ri…
In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes…
We present a new application and covering number bound for the framework of "Machine Learning with Operational Costs (MLOC)," which is an exploratory form of decision theory. The MLOC framework incorporates knowledge about how a predictive model will be used for a subsequent task, thus combining machine learning with t…
Network analysis improves risk assessment for surety bonds.
New method disentangles shock diffusion on complex networks using graph planarity.
We propose a framework for distributed robust statistical learning on {\em big contaminated data}. The Distributed Robust Learning (DRL) framework can reduce the computational time of traditional robust learning methods by several orders of magnitude. We analyze the robustness property of DRL, showing that DRL not only…
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing informati…
GCNs favor high-degree nodes, leading to biased performance; a new method mitigates this.
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
With the development of neural networks based machine learning and their usage in mission critical applications, voices are rising against the \textit{black box} aspect of neural networks as it becomes crucial to understand their limits and capabilities. With the rise of neuromorphic hardware, it is even more critical …
Distributed model training is vulnerable to byzantine system failures and adversarial compute nodes, i.e., nodes that use malicious updates to corrupt the global model stored at a parameter server (PS). To guarantee some form of robustness, recent work suggests using variants of the geometric median as an aggregation r…
Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network metrics (for example DebtRank) of the interbank liability network which is availabl…
Study assesses how much security restaking protocols need to pay for.
New method for decentralized learning reduces data and computation needs.
Optimal bailout policies identified for financial institutions using AI.
OptIMIS method improves SRAM yield estimation efficiency and accuracy.
The events of the last few years revealed an acute need for tools to systematically model and analyze large financial networks. Many applications of such tools include the forecasting of systemic failures and analyzing probable effects of economic policy decisions. We consider optimizing the amount and structure of a b…
In distributed function computation, each node has an initial value and the goal is to compute a function of these values in a distributed manner. In this paper, we propose a novel token-based approach to compute a wide class of target functions to which we refer as "Token-based function Computation with Memory" (TCM) …
Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
Framework classifies machine learning failures into intentional and unintentional.
PAGER detects failures in deep regression models using a new framework.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline which is concerned with the analysis and prediction of equipment health and performance. One of the key challenges in PHM is to accurately predict impending failures in the equipment. In recent years, solutions for failure prediction have evo…
CalNF models rare failures with limited data, improving safety in autonomous systems.
Paper improves statistical efficiency of median-of-means estimator for Byzantine robust distributed inference.
This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
Study network equilibria in saturated systems, revealing how small shocks can trigger major losses.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
New method reveals why GNNs perform well on certain datasets.
Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.
We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of…
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimati…
Method distinguishes between failures and domain shifts in industrial data streams.
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
New method avoids failures in physics-constrained systems using active learning.