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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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137273410546 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for next word prediction

Language models help text classification tasks by predicting next words.

problem Lack of theoretical understanding of why language models perform well on downstream tasks.
method Mathematical study of the connection between next word prediction and text classification, formalizing it and quantifying the benefit.
result Language models that are ε-optimal in cross-entropy learn features that can solve classification tasks with linear approximation.

Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.

problem Understanding why language models generate coherent documents despite focusing on next-token prediction.
method Proving the power of next-token prediction in learning longer-range structure using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).
result Optimizing next-token prediction in RNNs yields a model that closely approximates the training distribution, even for long-range coherence.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has recently contributed to learning better representations in service of various NLP tasks. MTL aims at improving the performance of a primary task, by jointly training on a secondary task. This paper introduces automated tasks, which exploit the sequential nature of the input data, as second…

2017-09-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces a benchmark for predicting bankruptcy from text data.

problem Lack of a common benchmark dataset and evaluation strategy for unstructured data in bankruptcy prediction.
method Describes and evaluates several baseline models, including a bag-of-words model.
result A lightweight bag-of-words model performs surprisingly well, especially when considering data from multiple years.

It is common in modern prediction problems for many predictor variables to be counts of rarely occurring events. This leads to design matrices in which many columns are highly sparse. The challenge posed by such "rare features" has received little attention despite its prevalence in diverse areas, ranging from natural …

2018-03-18abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper takes a step towards theoretical analysis of the relationship between word embeddings and context embeddings in models such as word2vec. We start from basic probabilistic assumptions on the nature of word vectors, context vectors, and text generation. These assumptions are well supported either empirically o…

2019-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a training method for both better word representation and performance, which we call GROVER (Gradual Rumination On the Vector with maskERs). The method is to gradually and iteratively add random noises to word embeddings while training a model. GROVER first starts from conventional training process, and th…

2019-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

CNN predicts stock fluctuations using company news headlines.

problem Predicting next-day stock fluctuations based on company-specific news.
method Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with reduced filter dimensions and multiple hidden layers. Fine-tuned word embeddings and various filter widths.
result 61.7% classification accuracy achieved using pre-learned embeddings.

Paper presents ECL dataset for multi-modal bankruptcy prediction.

problem Developing models to predict corporate bankruptcy using textual and numerical data.
method Used ECL dataset to develop and evaluate classical and neural models.
result Textual and numerical data modalities complement each other for bankruptcy prediction.

The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence x1,..., xn,... of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) mu. After observing each outcome, it is required to give the conditional probabilities of the next observation. The measure mu belongs…

2014-08-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This thesis presents new methods for unsupervised learning of distributed representations of words and entities from text and knowledge bases. The first algorithm presented in the thesis is a multi-view algorithm for learning representations of words called Multiview Latent Semantic Analysis (MVLSA). By incorporating u…

2019-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

LLMs encode latent topic distributions, suggesting Bayesian inference.

problem Capturing topic structure from large language models.
method Connecting LLM optimization to implicit Bayesian inference and de Finetti's theorem.
result LLMs recover latent topic distributions, matching LDA-generated topics.

The abstract explains how word and relation representations capture semantic meaning.

problem Understanding how word and relation representations capture semantic meaning.
method Theoretical justification and extension of geometric relationships between word embeddings and knowledge graph representations.
result The geometric relationships between word embeddings correspond to semantic relations between words and entities in knowledge graphs.

Which song will Smith listen to next? Which restaurant will Alice go to tomorrow? Which product will John click next? These applications have in common the prediction of user trajectories that are in a constant state of flux over a hidden network (e.g. website links, geographic location). What users are doing now may b…

2015-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Self-supervised learning improves by predicting known information, reducing labeled data needs.

problem Efficiently learn useful semantic representations without labeled data.
method Develops a mechanism exploiting statistical connections between pretext tasks to learn representations that solve downstream tasks.
result Proves linear layer yields small approximation error and drastically reduces labeled sample complexity.

We show that the predictability of letters in written English texts depends strongly on their position in the word. The first letters are usually the least easy to predict. This agrees with the intuitive notion that words are well defined subunits in written languages, with much weaker correlations across these units t…

2007-10-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Reinforcement learning after next-token prediction aids in learning from diverse sequence lengths.

problem Learning from sequences of varying lengths and complexity.
method Introducing a framework to study reinforcement learning with autoregressive transformers, focusing on next-token prediction and mixture distributions of short and long sequences.
result Reinforcement learning after next-token prediction enables autoregressive transformers to generalize from long sequences, even when they are rare.

Stock prediction has always been attractive area for researchers and investors since the financial gains can be substantial. However, stock prediction can be a challenging task since stocks are influenced by a multitude of factors whose influence vary rapidly through time. This paper proposes a novel approach (Word2Vec…

2019-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

A new approach predicts next observations without explicit decoding for better control.

problem High-dimensional observations and unknown dynamics in real-world control tasks.
method Proposes a novel information-theoretic LCE approach using predictive coding to develop a decoder-free model.
result The model reliably learns a controllable latent space leading to superior performance.

This study tackles mutual fund portfolio prediction, focusing on novel items.

problem Predicting novel items in mutual fund portfolios is challenging and less explored.
method Created a comprehensive benchmark dataset and evaluated various recommender system models.
result Autoencoder-based approaches outperform state-of-the-art models in predicting novel items.

Enhances image captioning with novel context combination methods.

problem Improving machine learning for image captioning with structured learning and meaningful interpretation.
method Combines Feature Distribution Composition (FDC), Multiple Role Representation Crossover (MRRC) attention layers, and language decoder.
result Significantly improved image captioning performance (35.3%) and established new standards.

The paper distinguishes between conditional and marginal processes in language models and discusses conditions for usefulness.

problem The conditional nature of language models trained on observed sequences and the need for marginal text-only processes.
method Distinguishing between full conditional language process, marginal text-only process, and model-induced distribution; analyzing assumptions of stationarity and ergodicity.
result The marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation.

The study explores how Transformers predict the next token in a sequence.

problem Understanding the mechanism behind Transformers' autoregressive learning ability.
method Exploring the approximation ability of Transformers for next-token prediction through specific instances and a causal kernel descent method.
result Transformer models can learn context-dependent functions ff for next-token prediction based on past and current observations.

This paper examines how different decoding algorithms for LLMs align with various goals.

problem Consistency of decoding algorithms with different goals in LLMs.
method Analysis of greedy, lookahead, random sampling, and temperature-scaled random sampling algorithms.
result Random sampling is consistent with the true probability distribution, but other goals require optimal algorithms for specific probability distributions.

Sequence-to-Sequence (seq2seq) modeling has rapidly become an important general-purpose NLP tool that has proven effective for many text-generation and sequence-labeling tasks. Seq2seq builds on deep neural language modeling and inherits its remarkable accuracy in estimating local, next-word distributions. In this work…

2016-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Taureau uses Twitter sentiment analysis to predict stock market movement.

problem Predicting stock market movement using public opinion on Twitter.
method Obtained historical tweets, filtered and labeled, generated word embeddings, assessed sentiment scores, correlated with stock price movement, designed and evaluated predictive model.
result Taureau can predict stock price movement from lagged sentiment scores.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring…

2016-12-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Supervised topic models can help clinical researchers find interpretable cooccurence patterns in count data that are relevant for diagnostics. However, standard formulations of supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation have two problems. First, when documents have many more words than labels, the influence of the labels w…

2016-12-06abs ↗pdf ↗