A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
MPE models traffic trajectory data to predict next locations.
Which song will Smith listen to next? Which restaurant will Alice go to tomorrow? Which product will John click next? These applications have in common the prediction of user trajectories that are in a constant state of flux over a hidden network (e.g. website links, geographic location). What users are doing now may b…
With the growth of using cell phones and the increase in diversity of smart mobile devices, a massive volume of data is generated continuously in the process of using these devices. Among these data, Call Detail Records, CDR, is highly remarkable. Since CDR contains both temporal and spatial labels, mobility analysis o…
TraLFM models human mobility patterns from traffic trajectories.
Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an -greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch s…
Paper proposes a GAN-based approach for RTLMP prediction.
This paper presents a novel framework for predicting shot location and type in tennis. Inspired by recent neuroscience discoveries we incorporate neural memory modules to model the episodic and semantic memory components of a tennis player. We propose a Semi Supervised Generative Adversarial Network architecture that c…
Study develops a new model for predicting individual mobility based on activity patterns.
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
GPR models epidemic spread on logarithmic scale.
Optimizes black-box functions with varying costs across multiple sources.
We consider the problem of locating a point-source heart arrhythmia using data from a standard diagnostic procedure, where a reference catheter is placed in the heart, and arrival times from a second diagnostic catheter are recorded as the diagnostic catheter moves around within the heart. We model this situation as a …
SHMM models human mobility from GPS and text data, overcoming text sparsity.
Study on sequential prediction with log-loss, focusing on well-specified and misspecified cases.
RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) play crucial roles in many biological processes, e.g. gene regulation. Computational identification of RBP binding sites on RNAs are urgently needed. In particular, RBPs bind to RNAs by recognizing sequence motifs. Thus, fast locating those motifs on RNA sequences is crucial and time-efficie…
Study predicts climate data at distant locations using machine learning.
Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critic…
Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
TIMeSynC combines financial service interactions for intent prediction.
Multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a common approach to address the extensive computationally demanding algorithms such as optimization, calibration and uncertainty quantification. Adaptive sampling for multi-fidelity Gaussian process is a changing task due to the fact that not only we seek to estimate the next samplin…
We present a novel human-aware navigation approach, where the robot learns to mimic humans to navigate safely in crowds. The presented model, referred to as DeepMoTIon, is trained with pedestrian surveillance data to predict human velocity in the environment. The robot processes LiDAR scans via the trained network to n…
Reinforcement learning after next-token prediction aids in learning from diverse sequence lengths.
Computational identification of promoters is notoriously difficult as human genes often have unique promoter sequences that provide regulation of transcription and interaction with transcription initiation complex. While there are many attempts to develop computational promoter identification methods, we have no reliab…
Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where the integration is tractable, we can sample new feature assignments according to …
A new approach predicts next observations without explicit decoding for better control.
This study tackles mutual fund portfolio prediction, focusing on novel items.
New method infers centromere locations in yeast using Hi-C data.
Proposes a feature transformation for spatio-temporal traffic models to improve performance and transferability.
Law explains how LLMs learn to predict next tokens.
An extreme wind speed estimation method that considers wind hazard climate types is critical for design wind load calculation for building structures affected by mixed climates. However, it is very difficult to obtain wind hazard climate types from meteorological data records, because they restrict the application of e…
The study explores how Transformers predict the next token in a sequence.
This paper examines how different decoding algorithms for LLMs align with various goals.
Model predicts next destination for users based on past trips and features.
Satellite images improve real-estate price predictions.
Social networks are getting closer to our real physical world. People share the exact location and time of their check-ins and are influenced by their friends. Modeling the spatio-temporal behavior of users in social networks is of great importance for predicting the future behavior of users, controlling the users' mov…
Bayesian method improves star location and flux estimation from coadded images.
The paper improves prediction and testing for signals from a linear combination of translated features with Gaussian noise.
Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring…
Forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI) is of prime importance to epidemiologists and health-care providers. Early prediction of epidemic outbreaks plays a pivotal role in disease intervention and control. Most existing work has either limited long-term prediction performance or lacks a comprehensive ability to captur…
We are now witnessing the increasing availability of event stream data, i.e., a sequence of events with each event typically being denoted by the time it occurs and its mark information (e.g., event type). A fundamental problem is to model and predict such kind of marked temporal dynamics, i.e., when the next event wil…
Market forecasts converge to true values if some agents are correct.
The tremendous growth of positioning technologies and GPS enabled devices has produced huge volumes of tracking data during the recent years. This source of information constitutes a rich input for data analytics processes, either offline (e.g. cluster analysis, hot motion discovery) or online (e.g. short-term forecast…
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on many visual recognition tasks. However, the combination of convolution and pooling operations only shows invariance to small local location changes in meaningful objects in input. Sometimes, such networks are trained using data augme…
In this paper we propose a new method to predict the final destination of vehicle trips based on their initial partial trajectories. We first review how we obtained clustering of trajectories that describes user behaviour. Then, we explain how we model main traffic flow patterns by a mixture of 2d Gaussian distribution…
Assessing the predictive accuracy of black box classifiers is challenging in the absence of labeled test datasets. In these scenarios we may need to rely on a human oracle to evaluate individual predictions; presenting the challenge to create query algorithms to guide the search for points that provide the most informa…
Many expensive black-box optimisation problems are sensitive to their inputs. In these problems it makes more sense to locate a region of good designs, than a single-possibly fragile-optimal design. Expensive black-box functions can be optimised effectively with Bayesian optimisation, where a Gaussian process is a popu…
Graph neural networks improve residential location choice predictions.
A fully-convolutional neural-network model is used to predict the streamwise velocity fields at several wall-normal locations by taking as input the streamwise and spanwise wall-shear-stress planes in a turbulent open channel flow. The training data are generated by performing a direct numerical simulation (DNS) at a f…