A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new neural network for efficient density estimation.
Estimates causal effects using neural autoregressive density estimators.
Autoregressive models are among the best performing neural density estimators. We describe an approach for increasing the flexibility of an autoregressive model, based on modelling the random numbers that the model uses internally when generating data. By constructing a stack of autoregressive models, each modelling th…
Neural density estimators are flexible families of parametric models which have seen widespread use in unsupervised machine learning in recent years. Maximum-likelihood training typically dictates that these models be constrained to specify an explicit density. However, this limitation can be overcome by instead using …
Paper explores variable skipping to speed up range density estimation.
Normalizing flows and autoregressive models have been successfully combined to produce state-of-the-art results in density estimation, via Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF), and to accelerate state-of-the-art WaveNet-based speech synthesis to 20x faster than real-time, via Inverse Autoregressive Flows (IAF). We unify a…
We propose a supervised anomaly detection method based on neural density estimators, where the negative log likelihood is used for the anomaly score. Density estimators have been widely used for unsupervised anomaly detection. By the recent advance of deep learning, the density estimation performance has been greatly i…
Normalising flows (NFS) map two density functions via a differentiable bijection whose Jacobian determinant can be computed efficiently. Recently, as an alternative to hand-crafted bijections, Huang et al. (2018) proposed neural autoregressive flow (NAF) which is a universal approximator for density functions. Their fl…
A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple base density. Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choic…
ARCNPs improve CNPs by autoregressively modeling dependencies.
We introduce Hyper-Conditioned Neural Autoregressive Flow (HCNAF); a powerful universal distribution approximator designed to model arbitrarily complex conditional probability density functions. HCNAF consists of a neural-net based conditional autoregressive flow (AF) and a hyper-network that can take large conditions …
Paper uses GMM and MAF for probabilistic classification, outperforming simpler models.
AdaCat improves density estimation and planning in autoregressive models.
A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple density. The invertibility means that we can evaluate densities and generate samples from a flow. In practice, autoregressive flow-based models are slow to invert, making either density estimation or sample generation sl…
Bayesian method estimates Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive processes.
Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in steps rather than to lea…
Neural networks improve gravitational-wave parameter estimation.
ARTree uses deep learning to infer tree topologies efficiently.
We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractab…
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
Neural estimator improves mutual information estimation in high dimensions.
We present a method for feature interpretation that makes use of recent advances in autoregressive density estimation models to invert model representations. We train generative inversion models to express a distribution over input features conditioned on intermediate model representations. Insights into the invariance…
Autoregressive (AR) models have become a popular tool for unsupervised learning, achieving state-of-the-art log likelihood estimates. We investigate the use of AR models as density estimators in two settings -- as a learning signal for image translation, and as an outlier detector -- and find that these density estimat…
StrNN uses neural network structures to learn conditional independencies.
LMConv improves autoregressive models for image generation and completion.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
Flow-based generative models are a family of exact log-likelihood models with tractable sampling and latent-variable inference, hence conceptually attractive for modeling complex distributions. However, flow-based models are limited by density estimation performance issues as compared to state-of-the-art autoregressive…
Neural autoregressive models are explicit density estimators that achieve state-of-the-art likelihoods for generative modeling. The D-dimensional data distribution is factorized into an autoregressive product of one-dimensional conditional distributions according to the chain rule. Data completion is a more involved ta…
This paper compares log-likelihood and BLEU scores for sequence generation tasks.
Monotonic neural networks have recently been proposed as a way to define invertible transformations. These transformations can be combined into powerful autoregressive flows that have been shown to be universal approximators of continuous probability distributions. Architectures that ensure monotonicity typically enfor…
Autoregressive generative models consistently achieve the best results in density estimation tasks involving high dimensional data, such as images or audio. They pose density estimation as a sequence modeling task, where a recurrent neural network (RNN) models the conditional distribution over the next element conditio…
AR-CSM models use derivatives of univariate log-conditionals to estimate joint distributions efficiently.
The Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE) and its real-valued version RNADE are competitive density models of multidimensional data across a variety of domains. These models use a fixed, arbitrary ordering of the data dimensions. One can easily condition on variables at the beginning of the ordering, and …
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
Improved flow-based models capture dependencies better with multi-scale autoregressive priors.
The fundamental task of general density estimation has been of keen interest to machine learning. In this work, we attempt to systematically characterize methods for density estimation. Broadly speaking, most of the existing methods can be categorized into either using: \textit{a}) autoregressive models to estim…
We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data in order to learn a model of the likelihood in the region of high posterior dens…
New method estimates HMM hidden states efficiently.
WaveGrad generates high-fidelity audio using gradient estimation.
Flow-based generative models, conceptually attractive due to tractability of both the exact log-likelihood computation and latent-variable inference, and efficiency of both training and sampling, has led to a number of impressive empirical successes and spawned many advanced variants and theoretical investigations. Des…
Flow-based generative models are powerful exact likelihood models with efficient sampling and inference. Despite their computational efficiency, flow-based models generally have much worse density modeling performance compared to state-of-the-art autoregressive models. In this paper, we investigate and improve upon thr…
Paper proposes a neural network method for fast, interpretable AR model estimation.
New method estimates spin system mutual information using neural networks.
Graphical normalizing flows use Bayesian networks to improve normalizing flows' interpretability and performance.
New model handles missing data effectively in autoregressive models.
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score function as the driver of time-variation in the parameters of nonlinear models. T…
NQE uses quantile regression for fast SBI with cubic Hermite splines.
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.