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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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2855708541,139 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for nested prediction sets

EENNs improve inference efficiency but need nested prediction sets for reliable uncertainty estimates.

problem Non-nested prediction sets from standard uncertainty quantification methods in EENNs.
method Introduced anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs) tailored for EENNs.
result AVCSs generate nested prediction sets across EENN exits, addressing the issue of non-nested sets.

Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.

problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.

Conformal prediction is a popular tool for providing valid prediction sets for classification and regression problems, without relying on any distributional assumptions on the data. While the traditional description of conformal prediction starts with a nonconformity score, we provide an alternate (but equivalent) view…

2019-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

A system of nested dichotomies is a method of decomposing a multi-class problem into a collection of binary problems. Such a system recursively applies binary splits to divide the set of classes into two subsets, and trains a binary classifier for each split. Many methods have been proposed to perform this split, each …

2018-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Nested Slice Sampling accelerates Nested Sampling for GPU acceleration.

problem Challenging inference for complex, multimodal targets.
method Vectorized Nested Slice Sampling using Hit-and-Run Slice Sampling.
result NSS maintains accurate evidence estimates and high-quality posterior samples, robust on multimodal problems.

Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.

problem High-dimensional linear regression with predictor ordering impact.
method Combining model averaging with regularized estimators on the solution path.
result Nested model averaging with lasso and SLOPE outperforms competing methods.

This paper uses Nested Sampling to improve Gaussian Process uncertainty quantification.

problem Underestimating predictive uncertainty and overfitting in Gaussian Process models.
method Marginalises hyperparameters using Nested Sampling for spectral mixture kernels.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across various data sets.

Let R be an o-minimal expansion of the real field, and let L(R) be the language consisting of all nested Rolle leaves over R. We call a set nested subpfaffian over R if it is the projection of a boolean combination of definable sets and nested Rolle leaves over R. Assuming that R admits analytic cell decomposition, we …

2006-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified GP model optimizes hyperparameters with conditional dependence.

problem Efficient tuning of hyperparameters in neural networks.
method Unified Bayesian optimization framework based on a new Gaussian process (GP) model.
result Higher prediction accuracy and better optimization efficiency observed.

We propose doubly nested network(DNNet) where all neurons represent their own sub-models that solve the same task. Every sub-model is nested both layer-wise and channel-wise. While nesting sub-models layer-wise is straight-forward with deep-supervision as proposed in \cite{xie2015holistically}, channel-wise nesting has…

2018-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves predictive performance testing for high-dimensional data using exhaustive nested cross-validation.

problem Reproducibility issues in KK-fold cross-validation for high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a novel predictive performance test based on exhaustive nested cross-validation, addressing computational complexity with a closed-form expression.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Ridge-based methods in high-dimensional predictive performance testing.

GEFA predicts drug-target affinity using graph neural networks.

problem Accurate prediction of drug-target interactions for rapid drug repurposing.
method GEFA (Graph Early Fusion Affinity) is a novel graph-in-graph neural network with attention mechanism.
result GEFA effectively models drug-target interactions, demonstrating the effectiveness of pre-trained protein embedding and nested graph representation.

New discrete cobordism category for nested manifolds and relations to algebraic structures.

problem Discrete cobordism category for nested manifolds.
method Stratified Morse theory, Cyl-objects, doubling construction, cylindrical bar construction.
result Relations between Cyl-objects and algebraic structures like Temperley-Lieb algebras.

Proposes a method for explaining black-box models with nested feature attributions.

problem Making black-box models transparent and trustworthy.
method Model-agnostic local explanation method exploiting nested feature structure and consistency property.
result Accurate and consistent HiFAs and LoFAs estimated using fewer model queries.

Cross-validation estimates model performance on unseen data, not training data.

problem Understanding how cross-validation estimates prediction error and its limitations.
method Analyzing linear models and popular prediction error estimates, introducing nested cross-validation.
result Cross-validation estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets, not the model at hand.

A novel bootstrap method improves concept drift detection in predictive models.

problem Detecting changes in predictive relationships (concept drift) in data-driven applications.
method Developed a nested bootstrap procedure to calibrate control limits using the entire initial sample.
result The method yields more accurate baseline models and faster CL setup times.

In this paper, we proposed a deep learning-based end-to-end method on the domain specified automatic term extraction (ATE), it considers possible term spans within a fixed length in the sentence and predicts them whether they can be conceptual terms. In comparison with current ATE methods, the model supports nested ter…

2019-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles robust optimization under uncertainty using nested distance.

problem Optimizing under distributionally robust uncertainty with nested distance.
method Equivalent recursive and dynamic programming reformulations for tractable optimization.
result Optimal robust policies can be found efficiently using convex optimization.

Study cobordisms of nested manifolds and their invariants.

problem Understanding cobordisms of nested manifolds and their invariants.
method Identify a nested analog of the Pontryagin-Thom construction and find spaces homotopy equivalent to nested Pontryagin-Thom spaces.
result Discover nested cobordism invariants and provide an alternative proof of Wall's splitting result.

Paper tackles robust model training with a new stochastic algorithm.

problem Training robust models against data distribution shift.
method Derives a novel dual formulation and proposes a nested stochastic gradient descent algorithm.
result Establishes polynomial iteration and sample complexities for large-scale DRO problems.

Nested dichotomies are used as a method of transforming a multiclass classification problem into a series of binary problems. A tree structure is induced that recursively splits the set of classes into subsets, and a binary classification model learns to discriminate between the two subsets of classes at each node. In …

2018-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

The data torrent unleashed by current and upcoming astronomical surveys demands scalable analysis methods. Many machine learning approaches scale well, but separating the instrument measurement from the physical effects of interest, dealing with variable errors, and deriving parameter uncertainties is often an after-th…

2017-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce an efficient algorithmic framework for model selection in online learning, also known as parameter-free online learning. Departing from previous work, which has focused on highly structured function classes such as nested balls in Hilbert space, we propose a generic meta-algorithm framework that achieves o…

2017-12-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantum algorithm speeds up nested expectation estimation by nearly quadratically.

problem Estimating repeatedly nested expectations with quantum computing.
method Proposes a quantum algorithm achieving nearly quadratic speedup over classical methods.
result Achieves nearly quadratic speedup for RNEs, up to logarithmic factors.

The paper proposes an efficient nested simulation design using likelihood ratio method.

problem Designing nested simulations with fixed outer scenarios and minimizing simulation effort.
method Proposes a bi-level optimization problem to decide inner replications and pooling strategies.
result Optimized design achieves $\cO(Γ^{-1})$ mean squared error of estimators.

Improved nested simulation for financial risk measurement.

problem Efficiently estimating nested risk measures in financial engineering.
method Reusing inner simulation outputs to improve efficiency and accuracy.
result The proposed approach outperforms standard nested simulation and regression methods.

Alt-GNNs improve travel mode choice modeling by integrating graph neural networks with GEV models.

problem Capturing alternative dependence in discrete choice models with predefined, symmetric, and uniform dependence.
method Introducing Alternative Graph Neural Networks (Alt-GNNs) that embed alternative dependence within a unified framework.
result Alt-GNNs significantly improve predictive performance over benchmark models in travel mode choice datasets.

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.

problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.

A new method for efficient nested Monte Carlo simulations in financial modeling.

problem Computational challenges in nested stochastic modeling for financial risk assessment.
method Sample recycling approach to speed up inner loop estimations.
result Significantly more efficient than traditional techniques.

New methods for time-to-event prediction are proposed by extending the Cox proportional hazards model with neural networks. Building on methodology from nested case-control studies, we propose a loss function that scales well to large data sets, and enables fitting of both proportional and non-proportional extensions o…

2019-07-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves involve calculation of a separate, nested, estimation. We investigate the statistica…

2017-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves predictive systems with better theoretical guarantees.

problem Constructing predictive systems with out-of-sample calibration guarantees.
method Residual Distribution Predictive Systems (RDPs) that nest conformal predictive systems and offer flexibility.
result Empirically, RDPs perform competitively with conformal predictive systems and can be implemented with various regression methods.

Gradient-guided nested sampling improves posterior inference efficiency.

problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions.
method Gradient-guided nested sampling combining differentiable programming, Hamiltonian slice sampling, clustering, mode separation, dynamic nested sampling, and parallelization.
result Significantly faster mode discovery and more accurate partition function estimates.