A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.
Develops a method for learning proposals in nested importance samplers.
Improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment for unstable models.
Hierarchical causal models help understand cause and effect in nested data.
A new sampling method estimates scores without training or nested MCMC.
We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). While direct evaluation of modelprobabilities is intractable in this setting, we show that by using c…
We study finite-sum nonconvex optimization problems, where the objective function is an average of nonconvex functions. We propose a new stochastic gradient descent algorithm based on nested variance reduction. Compared with conventional stochastic variance reduced gradient (SVRG) algorithm that uses two reference …
Let R be an o-minimal expansion of the real field, and let L(R) be the language consisting of all nested Rolle leaves over R. We call a set nested subpfaffian over R if it is the projection of a boolean combination of definable sets and nested Rolle leaves over R. Assuming that R admits analytic cell decomposition, we …
Nested Slice Sampling accelerates Nested Sampling for GPU acceleration.
Enhances Bayesian model selection for high-dimensional problems.
A novel bootstrap method improves concept drift detection in predictive models.
The paper analyzes MACD using operator theory.
Nested sampling improved for arbitrary priors.
Conditional Random Fields (CRF) are frequently applied for labeling and segmenting sequence data. Morency et al. (2007) introduced hidden state variables in a labeled CRF structure in order to model the latent dynamics within class labels, thus improving the labeling performance. Such a model is known as Latent-Dynamic…
We propose doubly nested network(DNNet) where all neurons represent their own sub-models that solve the same task. Every sub-model is nested both layer-wise and channel-wise. While nesting sub-models layer-wise is straight-forward with deep-supervision as proposed in \cite{xie2015holistically}, channel-wise nesting has…
Study cobordisms of nested manifolds and their invariants.
We develop nested automatic differentiation (AD) algorithms for exact inference and learning in integer latent variable models. Recently, Winner, Sujono, and Sheldon showed how to reduce marginalization in a class of integer latent variable models to evaluating a probability generating function which contains many leve…
NEST optimizes deep learning training by placing devices efficiently across networks and memory.
Nested learning improves model performance on multi-granular tasks.
Paper tackles robust model training with a new stochastic algorithm.
Quantum algorithm speeds up nested expectation estimation by nearly quadratically.
We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we show that it is non-trivial to select a good estimator without knowledge about the …
There is an increasing interest in estimating expectations outside of the classical inference framework, such as for models expressed as probabilistic programs. Many of these contexts call for some form of nested inference to be applied. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of nested Monte Carlo (NMC) schemes, for w…
Improved nested simulation for financial risk measurement.
Scalable tools for nested optimization in deep learning.
Paper proposes a new estimator for nested expectations with faster convergence.
Unified SGD method improves convergence for nested optimization problems.
Study improves accuracy of risk measures using advanced algorithms.
Nested dichotomies are used as a method of transforming a multiclass classification problem into a series of binary problems. A tree structure is induced that recursively splits the set of classes into subsets, and a binary classification model learns to discriminate between the two subsets of classes at each node. In …
New methods for estimating complex causal effects in econometrics.
The scientific method relies on the iterated processes of inference and inquiry. The inference phase consists of selecting the most probable models based on the available data; whereas the inquiry phase consists of using what is known about the models to select the most relevant experiment. Optimizing inquiry involves …
Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves involve calculation of a separate, nested, estimation. We investigate the statistica…
In this paper, we present UNet++, a new, more powerful architecture for medical image segmentation. Our architecture is essentially a deeply-supervised encoder-decoder network where the encoder and decoder sub-networks are connected through a series of nested, dense skip pathways. The re-designed skip pathways aim at r…
EENNs improve inference efficiency but need nested prediction sets for reliable uncertainty estimates.
We formalize the notion of nesting probabilistic programming queries and investigate the resulting statistical implications. We demonstrate that while query nesting allows the definition of models which could not otherwise be expressed, such as those involving agents reasoning about other agents, existing systems take …
Hidden variables are ubiquitous in practical data analysis, and therefore modeling marginal densities and doing inference with the resulting models is an important problem in statistics, machine learning, and causal inference. Recently, a new type of graphical model, called the nested Markov model, was developed which …
Generative model synthesizes complex data structures with composite and nested types.
Cross-validation estimates model performance on unseen data, not training data.
We develop a nested hierarchical Dirichlet process (nHDP) for hierarchical topic modeling. The nHDP is a generalization of the nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP) that allows each word to follow its own path to a topic node according to a document-specific distribution on a shared tree. This alleviates the rigid, …
Gradient-guided nested sampling improves posterior inference efficiency.
Paper tackles robust optimization under uncertainty using nested distance.
A new method sorts models to find the best one with minimal risk.
Proposes a Nested Block Model to unify various network block models.
New discrete cobordism category for nested manifolds and relations to algebraic structures.
The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.
The data torrent unleashed by current and upcoming astronomical surveys demands scalable analysis methods. Many machine learning approaches scale well, but separating the instrument measurement from the physical effects of interest, dealing with variable errors, and deriving parameter uncertainties is often an after-th…
A system of nested dichotomies is a method of decomposing a multi-class problem into a collection of binary problems. Such a system recursively applies binary splits to divide the set of classes into two subsets, and trains a binary classifier for each split. Many methods have been proposed to perform this split, each …
A new method for efficient nested Monte Carlo simulations in financial modeling.