A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Market maker handles negative prices with unique asset swapping.
Two new models improve option valuation for negative or mean reverting futures markets.
The paper models stock returns using -Gaussians and negative binomials.
Oil prices affect Russian banks' stability, with negative impacts from decreases.
Extends Black model to include commodities with potential negative prices.
New model shows negative resilience can improve trading efficiency.
Study reviews Bachelier model for negative oil prices post-COVID.
We show that the existence of an equivalent local martingale measure for asset prices does not prevent negative prices for European calls written on positive stock prices. In particular, we illustrate that many standard no-arbitrage arguments implicitly rely on conditions stronger than the No Free Lunch With Vanishing …
Paper defines when early exercise of American options is optimal under negative rates.
Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, t…
Paper examines floating exercise boundaries for American options in time-inhomogeneous models.
Gold prices show seasonal behavior, with January and July having opposite returns.
Proposes a new model for negative interest rates that fits market data closely.
The study provides a practical strategy for pricing and hedging equity-release mortgages guarantees.
If pricing kernels are assumed non-negative then the inverse problem of finding the pricing kernel is well-posed. The constrained least squares method provides a consistent estimate of the pricing kernel. When the data are limited, a new method is suggested: relaxed maximization of the relative entropy. This estimator …
GG distribution improves option pricing for negatively skewed spot price distributions.
New model explains price dynamics of Bitcoin with psychological factors.
The paper calculates Bachelier option prices using Taylor expansions and applies it as a variance reduction technique.
Data analysis with log-periodical parametrization of the Brent oil price dynamics has allowed to estimate (very approximately) the date when the dashing collapse of the Brent oil price will achieve the absolute minimum level (corresponding to the so-called singularity point), after which there will occur a rather rapid…
Solves super-hedging for financial models with uncertain prices.
Researchers calculate the price of a perpetual put option in Lévy models.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief abo…
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on …
Unified model integrates Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton for asset pricing.
Study near-maturity convergence rates of American put prices in Lévy models.
Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smar…
Market makers play an important role in providing liquidity to markets by continuously quoting prices at which they are willing to buy and sell, and managing inventory risk. In this paper, we build a multi-agent simulation of a dealer market and demonstrate that it can be used to understand the behavior of a reinforcem…
Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price to link storage theory with risk premium.
In this paper, we analyze Twitter signals as a medium for user sentiment to predict the price fluctuations of a small-cap alternative cryptocurrency called \emph{ZClassic}. We extracted tweets on an hourly basis for a period of 3.5 weeks, classifying each tweet as positive, neutral, or negative. We then compiled these …
In this paper we study the problem of maximizing expected utility from the terminal wealth with proportional transaction costs and random endowment. In the context of the existence of consistent price systems, we consider the duality between the primal utility maximization problem and the dual one, which is set up on t…
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
Study finds companies react negatively to material cybersecurity incident disclosures.
We study Betti numbers of sequences of Riemannian manifolds which Benjamini-Schramm converge to their universal covers. Using the Price inequalities we developed elsewhere, we derive two distinct convergence results. First, under a negative Ricci curvature assumption and no assumption on sign of the sectional curvature…
We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate de…
Price without transaction makes no sense. Trading volume authenticates its corresponding price, so there exist mutual information and correlation between price and trading volume. We are curious about fractal features of this correlation and need to know how structures in different scales translate information. To expl…
Model predicts jump risk premia influencing cryptocurrency futures and option performance.
This study investigates empirically whether the degree of stock market efficiency is related to the prediction power of future price change using the indices of twenty seven stock markets. Efficiency refers to weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in terms of the information of past price changes. The prediction …
Theoretical models applied to option pricing should take into account the empirical characteristics of the underlying financial time series. In this paper, we show how to price basket options when assets follow a shifted log-normal process with jumps capable of accommodating negative skewness. Our technique is based on…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detec…
We apply the potential force estimation method to artificial time series of market price produced by a deterministic dealer model. We find that dealers' feedback of linear prediction of market price based on the latest mean price changes plays the central role in the market's potential force. When markets are dominated…
We investigate the behavior of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is presumed to oscillate and damp in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. Complicated non-linear relations including inter-band positive correlatio…
Financial contracts with options that allow the holder to extend the contract maturity by paying an additional fixed amount found many applications in finance. Closed-form solutions for the price of these options have appeared in the literature for the case when the contract underlying asset follows a geometric Brownia…
The paper analyzes insurance pricing and capital allocation in imperfect markets.
Crowded trades cluster investors, affecting stock price stability.
A new method calculates accurate SABR model option prices and deltas.
Two sweeps of the Brennan-Schwartz algorithm solve American options under negative rates.
New method for pricing and hedging options in risky markets.