The paper develops bounds for predictive values in binary classification.
problem Lack of confidence intervals for positive and negative predictive values.
method Bi-criterion framework and distribution-free large deviation and uniform convergence bounds.
result New bounds for predictive values without relying on concentration inequalities.
A new method STMF improves missing value prediction using tropical semiring.
problem Limited capability of linear models to model complex relations.
method Sparse Tropical Matrix Factorization (STMF) using tropical semiring.
result STMF outperforms NMF on real data, especially in handling extreme values.
nUDEs use neural networks to model biology without negative values.
problem Unrealistic negative values in hybrid models of biology.
method Developed non-negative UDEs (nUDEs) with regularization techniques.
result nUDEs provide realistic solutions for biological models.
The paper discusses thresholds and bounds for accuracy in binary classification systems.
problem The accuracy of binary classification systems and its dependence on prevalence.
method Analyzing the precision-prevalence curve and negative predictive value-prevalence curve to find thresholds and bounds.
result Thresholds (φe and φn) bound various accuracy metrics (Fβ, F1, FM, MCC) and the ratio of maximum accuracy to prevalence. Negative user preference is an important context that is not sufficiently utilized by many existing recommender systems. This context is especially useful in scenarios where the cost of negative items is high for the users. In this work, we describe a new recommender algorithm that explicitly models negative user prefe…
Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockc…
Study finds financial YouTube channel 3PROTV predicts stock market performance and sentiment changes.
problem Determining the informational value of financial YouTube channels.
method Analyzing 3PROTV's content and its impact on stock market performance and sentiment.
result 3PROTV's content, particularly negative sentiment, predicts stock market performance and sentiment changes.
We propose to explain the predictions of a deep neural network, by pointing to the set of what we call representer points in the training set, for a given test point prediction. Specifically, we show that we can decompose the pre-activation prediction of a neural network into a linear combination of activations of trai…
SCoRE provides risk control for selective prediction models.
problem Enforcing strict error control in selective prediction models.
method SCoRE framework based on conformal inference and hypothesis testing.
result SCoRE offers binary trust decisions with finite-sample error control.
New theory shows how learning algorithms can create a bias towards negative outcomes.
problem Negativity bias in adaptive learning algorithms.
method Generalization of the Hot Stove Effect to settings with negative estimates leading to smaller sample sizes.
result Negativity bias persists even when negative estimates do not lead to avoidance.
Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O(1/n) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing. Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smar…
The paper finds optimal threshold strategies for insurance companies with a positive terminal value at creeping ruin.
problem Optimizing dividend payments in an insurance company's surplus process with a positive terminal value at creeping ruin.
method Using fluctuation theory, the paper derives explicit formulas for the objective function and shows the optimality of threshold strategies.
result Threshold strategies are optimal for the dividend optimization problem under certain conditions.
Bayesian approach confirms no return predictability for 1926-2004 data, weak evidence for 1953-2021.
problem Investigating return predictability using Bayesian methods.
method Developed a new shrinkage type prior for a model parameter in a VAR system, compared to other estimation methods.
result Bayesian approach outperforms reduced-bias estimator in terms of size and power.
Paper predicts embryo implantation probability from IVF time-lapse imaging.
problem Manual embryo selection in IVF has low success rates.
method Data-driven system trained on time-lapse imaging videos.
result Algorithm improves positive and negative predictive values.
A CNN-based model improves stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Overfitting in image-based stock prediction models.
method SMSFR-CNN combining CNN and image features.
result SMSFR-CNN achieves high predictive accuracy on A-share stocks.
A matrix completion problem, which aims to recover a complete matrix from its partial observations, is one of the important problems in the machine learning field and has been studied actively. However, there is a discrepancy between the mainstream problem setting, which assumes continuous-valued observations, and some…
ChatGPT predicts stock trends from Twitter sentiment, showing positive effects.
problem Predicting stock market trends using social media sentiment.
method Used ChatGPT for sentiment analysis of Twitter posts about Microsoft and Google.
result ChatGPT's predictions correlated positively with stock performance.
The paper introduces Absolute Shapley Value to handle negative contributions in machine learning model training.
problem Negative marginal contributions in machine learning model training.
method Investigates three philosophies: Original Shapley Value, Zero Shapley Value, and Absolute Shapley Value.
result Absolute Shapley Value significantly outperforms other definitions in evaluating data importance.
We analyse an issue when comparing survival curves between two subgroups. We show that there is a direct relationship between estimates of subgroups' survival at a time point and positive and negative predictive values in the binary classification settings. Our findings present a case where current methods of comparing…
Two new models improve option valuation for negative or mean reverting futures markets.
problem Valuation of futures contracts with negative underlying prices.
method Proposed two models: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and continuous time GARCH.
result Improved option values compared to Black 76, especially for negative or mean reverting markets.
This study investigates empirically whether the degree of stock market efficiency is related to the prediction power of future price change using the indices of twenty seven stock markets. Efficiency refers to weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in terms of the information of past price changes. The prediction …
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.
Anytime-valid confirmation of label-shift corrections
problem Small-batch scientific deployments with scarce labeled outcomes
method Conditional e-value and martingale-based rule
result Nonnegative martingale and anytime-valid confirmation rule
Extends conformal prediction to contrastive learning for better coverage of positive samples.
problem Lack of principled guarantees on coverage in contrastive learning.
method Introduces minimum-volume covering sets with learnable constraints.
result Improves inclusion-exclusion trade-offs in positive and negative samples.
Bayesian GPR model predicts extreme stock market losses.
problem Forecasting rare but impactful extreme negative returns in equity markets.
method Developed a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression model linking scale parameter to market volatility.
result The Cauchy prior provides the best balance between predictive accuracy and model simplicity.
Financial market prediction on the basis of online sentiment tracking has drawn a lot of attention recently. However, most results in this emerging domain rely on a unique, particular combination of data sets and sentiment tracking tools. This makes it difficult to disambiguate measurement and instrument effects from f…
We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, …
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
Predicts stock price changes based on clinical trial announcements.
problem Forecasting the impact of clinical trial results on pharma stock prices.
method BERT for sentiment analysis, Temporal Fusion Transformer for forecasting, graph convolution network for event relationships, gradient boosting for price change prediction.
result Identifies two crucial factors: drug portfolio size and network effect of related events.
Mini-batch SGD with momentum is a fundamental algorithm for learning large predictive models. In this paper we develop a new analytic framework to analyze noise-averaged properties of mini-batch SGD for linear models at constant learning rates, momenta and sizes of batches. Our key idea is to consider the dynamics of t…
We study minimal hypersurfaces in manifolds of non-negative Ricci curvature, Euclidean volume growth and quadratic curvature decay at infinity. By comparison with capped spherical cones, we identify a precise borderline for the Ricci curvature decay. Above this value, no complete area-minimizing hypersurfaces exist. Be…
The optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy was first studied by Leland (1994) and Leland and Toft (1996), and was later extended to the spectrally negative Levy model by Hilberink and Rogers (2002) and Kyprianou and Surya (2007). This paper incorporates the scale effects by allowing the values of ba…
A new baseline for Shapley values in MLPs considers model use.
problem Lack of a robust baseline for Shapley values in neural networks.
method Proposes a neutrality-based baseline for Shapley values.
result Empirically validated the proposed baseline for binary classification tasks.
Separable losses are inconsistent for structured prediction models.
problem Inconsistency of separable losses in structured prediction models.
method Analysis of separable negative log-likelihood losses for structured prediction.
result Separable losses are not Bayes consistent and may not predict the most probable structure.
The beta-negative binomial process (BNBP), an integer-valued stochastic process, is employed to partition a count vector into a latent random count matrix. As the marginal probability distribution of the BNBP that governs the exchangeable random partitions of grouped data has not yet been developed, current inference f…
New regularization method corrects over-shrinkage in small data regression.
problem Over-shrinkage in small data regression leading to underfitting.
method Negative-capable ridge family that permits negative regularization.
result Negative regularization acts as controlled anti-shrinkage, increasing effective complexity.
New quasimorphisms constructed for manifolds with negative curvature.
problem Building quasimorphisms on manifolds with negative curvature.
method Generalizing Barge and Ghys construction to Lie groups.
result Counterexamples to Kapovich and Fujiwara theorem for Lie groups.
Motivated by applications in protein function prediction, we consider a challenging supervised classification setting in which positive labels are scarce and there are no explicit negative labels. The learning algorithm must thus select which unlabeled examples to use as negative training points, possibly ending up wit…
TS improves class coverage but reduces CP set size, offering a trade-off.
problem Combining temperature scaling with conformal prediction for deep classifiers.
method Empirical study and mathematical theory of TS's effect on CP.
result TS allows trading prediction set size and conditional coverage.
Investigates maps and properties in spaces with negative dimensions and curvature.
problem Existence of transport maps and local-to-global property in spaces with negative dimensions and bounded Ricci curvature.
method Examines metric measure spaces with negative curvature dimensions and applies reduced curvature-dimension conditions.
result Establishes the existence of transport maps and proves the local-to-global property.
k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) is one of the simplest and most widely-used methods for supervised classification, that predicts a query's label by taking weighted ratio of observed labels of k objects nearest to the query. The weights and the parameter k∈N regulate its bias-variance trade-off, and the …
Paper compares neural networks and classical statistics for dementia prediction, highlighting interpretability of classical methods.
problem Tackles the challenge of interpreting risk factors for dementia prediction.
method Compares neural networks and classical statistics for dementia prediction.
result Classical statistics provide clearer interpretation of risk factors compared to neural networks.
The study proves a new inequality and formula for manifolds with non-negative Ricci curvature.
problem Proving a sharp mean value inequality for non-negative superharmonic functions.
method Develops a new sharp mean value inequality and an explicit formula for weighted scalar curvature.
result The new inequality removes the radius restriction of Schoen-Yau's result and provides an explicit formula for integral of weighted scalar curvature.
Study expands classical harmonic function results to Riemannian manifolds.
problem Classical harmonic function properties in domains of Riemannian manifolds.
method Generalized classical results to Riemannian manifolds, including pinched negative curvature.
result Generalized results for Riemannian manifolds, including pinched negative curvature.
Develops Bayesian inference methods for gamma models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with gamma functions.
method Data augmentation scheme using Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions.
result Scalable EM and MCMC algorithms developed.
The notion of disentangled autoencoders was proposed as an extension to the variational autoencoder by introducing a disentanglement parameter β, controlling the learning pressure put on the possible underlying latent representations. For certain values of β this kind of autoencoders is capable of encoding independ…