Study optimizes natural gas power plant valuation using Levy copulas and regime-switching models.
problem Optimizing the valuation and operation of natural gas-fired power plants under market fluctuations.
method Stochastic control problem, Levy regime-switching model, skewed Levy copulas, HJB equation, finite difference method.
result Numerical method provides optimal operating strategies and plant values based on market prices and conditions.
Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.
problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Or…
Study examines economic impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market.
problem Impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market pricing and conventional generation.
method Built a unit commitment model to simulate market legislation and system data.
result Wind energy reduces the operation of gas-fired plants by up to 20%.
Megaprojects like nuclear plants often overrun budgets and timelines due to planning flaws.
problem Megaprojects, including nuclear plants, frequently exceed budgets and timelines.
method Standardization and project delivery chain standardization are key strategies.
result Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) may offer a solution to megaproject risks.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, …
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical ownership of a commodity is taken to provide a stream of convenience dividends eq…
Paper proposes online learning method for power plant performance modeling.
problem Traditional machine learning models fail to handle nonstationary power plant dynamics.
method Ensemble-based online learning approach to continuously update models.
result Achieves less than 1% MAPE on real data, improving performance in field operations.
This study compares GNNs and GA-MLPs, finding GA-MLPs can distinguish graphs but not count walks.
problem Comparing expressive power and graph isomorphism testing capabilities of GNNs and GA-MLPs.
method GA-MLPs augment node features with multi-hop operators and apply MLPs node-wise; GNNs are compared as a baseline.
result GA-MLPs can distinguish almost all non-isomorphic graphs but cannot count attributed walks, unlike GNNs.
Paper presents an unsupervised method to estimate GHI from PV power measurements.
problem Precise solar irradiance assessment for PV plants is expensive and limited by satellite resolution.
method Completely unsupervised method based on a physical model of PV plants.
result The method outperforms satellite-based services, especially at high temporal resolutions.
Study optimizes nuclear power plant decommissioning risk management.
problem Optimizing risk management for decommissioning nuclear power plants.
method Numerical stochastic optimization approach linking risk aversion to an optimization problem.
result Optimal strategy involves de-risking similar to a concave strategy.
The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
Model forecasts natural gas consumption with Fourier series and feedback.
problem Forecast natural gas consumption for risk minimization.
method Modulated Fourier series with temperature deviations, day-ahead feedback.
result Model outperforms time series methods for long-term projections.
Modified deep LSTM model with EnKF improves gas flow rate predictions in mature gas wells.
problem Predicting gas production from mature gas wells with high accuracy and robustness.
method Modified deep LSTM model for flow rate prediction and EnKF for updating predictions.
result EnKF updated model leads to better flow predictions with lower Jeffreys' J-divergences.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
Paper compares simple and complex forecasting methods for photovoltaic power generation.
problem Improving accuracy of power generation forecasts from photovoltaic plants.
method Compared simple and sophisticated forecasting methods over 32 plants.
result Simpler methods are sufficient for accurate forecasts, but weather impacts are significant.
A model shows faster energy transition rewards flexible production more quickly.
problem Energy transition discourages investments in flexible production.
method Modeling future electricity prices from residual load, investigating revenues for various flexibility levels.
result Faster energy transition rewards flexible production more quickly.
Deep RL strategy improves natural gas trading performance.
problem Improving natural gas trading performance using Deep RL.
method Domain-adapted Deep RL for natural gas futures trading.
result Deep RL strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces transaction costs.
Deep semi-supervised learning identifies tree species from natural images.
problem Identifying tree species in natural settings with limited labeled data.
method Two-fold approach using deep semi-supervised learning.
result Achieves 94.04% top-5 accuracy for leaves and 83.04% for bark.
Paper proposes a new KPI for early fault detection in hydropower plants.
problem Early detection and maintenance of faults in hydropower plants.
method Developed and tested a novel Key Performance Indicator (KPI).
result The KPI outperforms conventional multivariable process control charts.
The paper models natural gas futures prices and volatility, using Monte Carlo and reinforcement learning.
problem Hedging and selecting delivery strategies in natural gas markets.
method Dynamical model for futures prices, least-square Monte Carlo simulation, reinforcement learning.
result Calibrated futures price quotes and implied volatility smiles for different delivery periods.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
GANs improve anomaly detection in power plants, achieving nearly perfect classification.
problem Anomaly detection in power generation plants to identify irregularities.
method Used Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for anomaly detection in power generation plants.
result GANs achieved an accuracy rate of 98.99% in anomaly detection, significantly improved by data augmentation.
Model predicts EMF of Ni-Mn-Ga MSMA, improved with GRNN.
problem Predicting the electromotive force (EMF) of Ni-Mn-Ga MSMA under various conditions.
method Developed a new constitutive model for Ni-Mn-Ga single crystals, incorporating magnetic easy axis offset. Used GRNN to enhance model predictions.
result GRNN improves model predictions of EMF, capturing more experimental features.
In this paper we propose a quadratic programming model that can be used for calculating the term structure of electricity prices while explicitly modeling startup costs of power plants. In contrast to other approaches presented in the literature, we incorporate the startup costs in a mathematically rigorous manner with…
A method uses ITD and XGBoost for precise power transformer fault diagnosis.
problem Fault diagnosis of power transformers using DGA data.
method Ranking DGA parameters by skewness, extracting ITD features, and using an XGBoost classifier.
result The method achieves over 95% accuracy in classification.
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Modeling and forecasting natural gas prices with heavy tails and conditional heteroscedasticity.
method State-space time series models under skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
result The proposed model reduces out-of-sample CRPS by 13% for Day-Ahead and 9% for Month-Ahead forecasts.
Linking GANs to binary classification through divergences.
problem Training GANs and understanding their divergence properties.
method Revisiting the discriminator's role in computing f-divergences.
result Alternative training perspective for f-GANs by designing discriminator loss.
We describe a natural way to plant cherry- and plumtrees at prescribed generic locations in an orchard.
Optimizes U.S. stock portfolios with natural gas and crude oil to reduce risk and enhance returns.
problem Reduces portfolio risk and enhances returns by diversifying with natural gas and crude oil.
method Uses time-varying multivariate copula analysis and variance regimes to handle structural changes in asset prices.
result Minimizes portfolio variance, semi-variance, and tail risk with or without return constraints.
Let E1,…,Ek and E be natural vector bundles defined over the category $\Cal Mf_m^+$ of smooth oriented m--dimensional manifolds and orientation preserving local diffeomorphisms, with m≥2. Let M be an object of $\Cal Mf_m^+$ which is connected. We give a complete classification of all separately con…
Deep models predict gas properties from dark matter to aid cosmological simulations.
problem Computational challenges in running hydrodynamical simulations for large-scale structure and baryonic probes.
method Trained variational auto-encoders and generative adversarial networks on BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulation data to map matter density to gas pressure.
result Generated tSZ maps are statistically consistent with those from BAHAMAS, enabling SLICS for tSZ covariance estimation.
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
Deep learning optimizes gas storage operations.
problem Optimizing underground natural gas storage operations.
method Reinforcement learning techniques applied to high-dimensional forward markets with constraints.
result Performance of deep learning method superior to least-squares Monte-Carlo approach.
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics offers models of markets as complex systems, that try to comprehend macro-, system-wide states of the economy from the interaction of many agents at micro-level. One of these models is the gas-like mo…
Machine learning predicts plant phenotypes from soil microbiome data.
problem Predicting plant phenotypes from soil microbiome data.
method Two models (random forest and Bayesian neural network) were used to predict plant phenotypes from soil properties and microbial population density.
result Human decisions and normalization strategies significantly impact model performance.
A deep Q-learning method improves downlink power allocation in multi-cell networks.
problem Optimal resource allocation in dense, heterogeneous wireless networks is computationally challenging.
method Proposes a centralized DRL-based downlink power allocation scheme using deep Q-learning.
result The proposed DRL-based power allocation scheme outperforms conventional methods in multi-cell scenarios.
Paper uses neural networks to predict NOx emissions from gas turbines.
problem Predicting NOx emissions from degrading gas turbines.
method Applied neural network algorithm to model NOx emissions from nine process variables.
result Neural network model optimizes process variables for minimal NOx emissions.
Deep learning predicts plant growth and yield in greenhouses.
problem Predicting plant growth and yield for better greenhouse management.
method Utilized a new deep recurrent neural network (RNN) with LSTM neurons to model growth parameters.
result Deep learning models outperformed traditional ML methods in predicting plant growth and yield.
Graph clustering involves the task of dividing nodes into clusters, so that the edge density is higher within clusters as opposed to across clusters. A natural, classic and popular statistical setting for evaluating solutions to this problem is the stochastic block model, also referred to as the planted partition model…
Paper proposes a technique to detect and predict sources of contaminants in complex systems.
problem Difficulty in identifying sources of contaminants in coupled natural and human systems.
method Developed a technique for simultaneous source detection and prediction.
result Outperforms other approaches in detecting potential groundwater contamination.
Designs a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
problem Designing a framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
method Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework, affine functions, Girsanov kernel, measure changes.
result Validates measure changes for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics is offering models of markets as complex systems, such as the gas-like model, able to predict money distributions observed in real economies. However, this model reveals some technical hitches to expl…
Study efficient power iteration for tensor models, proving convergence under specific conditions.
problem Simultaneous alternating power iteration for fixed-order asymmetric rank-one spiked tensor models.
method Finite-iteration local theory, geometrically decaying transient, fixed-order multilinear noise event, warm-start mechanism.
result Convergence to the unique informative local fixed point under specific conditions.
We consider the crossed product Gga by R+∗ of the adiabatic groupoid associated with any Lie groupoid G. We construct an explicit Morita equivalence between the exact sequence of order 0 pseudodifferential operators on G and (a restriction of) the natural exact sequence associated with Gga. As an imp…
Proposes CEP to better represent financial products' carbon impact.
problem Binary 'Green' label inadequately represents financial products' carbon impact.
method Introduces Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) for financial products.
result Financial products' carbon impact can be included as a linked term sheet.
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …