The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
Model forecasts natural gas consumption with Fourier series and feedback.
problem Forecast natural gas consumption for risk minimization.
method Modulated Fourier series with temperature deviations, day-ahead feedback.
result Model outperforms time series methods for long-term projections.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
Deep RL strategy improves natural gas trading performance.
problem Improving natural gas trading performance using Deep RL.
method Domain-adapted Deep RL for natural gas futures trading.
result Deep RL strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces transaction costs.
In this work we analyse a stochastic control problem for the valuation of a natural gas power station while taking into account operating characteristics. Both electricity and gas spot price processes exhibit mean-reverting spikes and Markov regime-switches. The Levy regime-switching model incorporates the effects of d…
The paper models natural gas futures prices and volatility, using Monte Carlo and reinforcement learning.
problem Hedging and selecting delivery strategies in natural gas markets.
method Dynamical model for futures prices, least-square Monte Carlo simulation, reinforcement learning.
result Calibrated futures price quotes and implied volatility smiles for different delivery periods.
The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties in input parameters.…
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Modeling and forecasting natural gas prices with heavy tails and conditional heteroscedasticity.
method State-space time series models under skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
result The proposed model reduces out-of-sample CRPS by 13% for Day-Ahead and 9% for Month-Ahead forecasts.
Let E1,…,Ek and E be natural vector bundles defined over the category $\Cal Mf_m^+$ of smooth oriented m--dimensional manifolds and orientation preserving local diffeomorphisms, with m≥2. Let M be an object of $\Cal Mf_m^+$ which is connected. We give a complete classification of all separately con…
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
Deep learning optimizes gas storage operations.
problem Optimizing underground natural gas storage operations.
method Reinforcement learning techniques applied to high-dimensional forward markets with constraints.
result Performance of deep learning method superior to least-squares Monte-Carlo approach.
Paper uses neural networks to predict NOx emissions from gas turbines.
problem Predicting NOx emissions from degrading gas turbines.
method Applied neural network algorithm to model NOx emissions from nine process variables.
result Neural network model optimizes process variables for minimal NOx emissions.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, …
We consider the crossed product Gga by R+∗ of the adiabatic groupoid associated with any Lie groupoid G. We construct an explicit Morita equivalence between the exact sequence of order 0 pseudodifferential operators on G and (a restriction of) the natural exact sequence associated with Gga. As an imp…
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …
VB approach for dynamic network models improves efficiency and accuracy.
problem Estimating dynamic network models in large-scale systems.
method Variational Bayesian inference for network autoregression.
result VB approach detects proper active structures and achieves similar or better accuracy.
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score function as the driver of time-variation in the parameters of nonlinear models. T…
We analyze the ideal gas like models of markets and review the different cases where a `savings' factor changes the nature and shape of the distribution of wealth. These models can produce similar distribution of wealth as observed across varied economies. We present a more realistic model where the saving factor can v…
In the face of growing needs for water and energy, a fundamental understanding of the environmental impacts of human activities becomes critical for managing water and energy resources, remedying water pollution, and making regulatory policy wisely. Among activities that impact the environment, oil and gas production, …
GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel GAS package for R. Details and code snippets for prediction, comparison and back…
For a given real generic curve $\ga: S^1\to \Bbb {RP}^n$ let $D_\ga$ denote the ruled hypersurface in RPn consisting of all osculating subspaces to $\ga$ of codimension 2. A curve $\ga: S^1\to \Bbb {RP}^n$ is called convex if the total number of its intersection points (counted with multiplicities) with any h…
Paper models uncertainty in electricity and gas markets to assess its impact.
problem Addressing uncertainties in coupled electricity and gas markets.
method Integrated and stochastic optimisation approaches for large-scale energy systems.
result Quantifies the value of encoding uncertainty in models.
Energy markets are strategic to governments and economic development. Several commodities compete as substitutable energy sources and energy diversifiers. Such competition reduces the energy vulnerability of countries as well as portfolios' risk exposure. Vulnerability results mainly from price trends and fluctuations,…
This paper analyzes Ethereum's gas fees and their derivatives, providing a comprehensive model.
problem Understanding and predicting gas fees on the Ethereum blockchain.
method Analyzed Ethereum's gas fee structure and used a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model gas prices.
result A model for pricing and trading gas fee derivatives to hedge against volatility.
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
We propose a comprehensive treatment of the leverage effect, i.e. the relationship between returns and volatility of a specific asset, focusing on energy commodities futures, namely Brent and WTI crude oils, natural gas and heating oil. After estimating the volatility process without assuming any specific form of its b…
Geodesic X-ray transform proves injective for smooth one-forms on gas giant manifolds.
problem Injectivity of geodesic X-ray transform for one-forms on specific manifolds.
method Pestov identity and asymptotic analysis of short geodesics.
result Geodesic X-ray transform is solenoidally injective for smooth one-forms on gas giant manifolds.
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
Financial markets for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are an important and rapidly-growing segment of commodities markets. Like other commodities markets, there is an inherent spatial structure to LNG markets, with different price dynamics for different points of delivery hubs. Certain hubs support highly liquid markets, a…
Mounting evidences are being gathered suggesting that income and wealth distribution in various countries or societies follow a robust pattern, close to the Gibbs distribution of energy in an ideal gas in equilibrium, but also deviating significantly for high income groups. Application of physics models seem to provide…
Optimal design portfolios improve energy efficiency and reduce risk in uncertain reservoirs.
problem Uncertain reservoir conditions lead to unstable gas recovery and low resource efficiency.
method Developed optimal portfolios of well designs based on reservoir conditions and probabilities.
result Remarkable reduction in variation and substantial increase in energy efficiency achieved.
Study the Hessian geometry of an ideal gas in a centrifuge.
problem Understanding the Hessian geometry of an ideal gas in a centrifuge.
method Investigate the Hessian geometry associated with an ideal gas in a spherical centrifuge, using the action of the Euclidean rotation group.
result The Hessian geometry of a spherical rigid body is isometric to a hyperbolic space in the high angular velocity limit.
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutr…
Study compares Bitcoin, gold, and gas price complexity using multifractal and multiscale entropy methods.
problem Quantifying complexity of financial time series for market analysis.
method Employed MF-DFA and RCMSE to analyze Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series.
result Bitcoin shows higher complexity compared to other markets, linked to higher nonlinear correlations.
Introduces GA-P/E, a growth-adjusted stock valuation measure.
problem Evaluating stock value and predicting future returns.
method Computes a payback period adjusted for earnings growth, using a sorted portfolio methodology.
result Low GA-P/E stocks outperform high GA-P/E stocks in absolute and risk-adjusted returns.
Improved GAS models using trees and forests for better forecasts.
problem Improving forecasts from GAS models to avoid curse of dimensionality.
method Localized parameters using decision trees and random forests.
result Significantly outperform baseline GAS model in empirical analyses.
This study compares GNNs and GA-MLPs, finding GA-MLPs can distinguish graphs but not count walks.
problem Comparing expressive power and graph isomorphism testing capabilities of GNNs and GA-MLPs.
method GA-MLPs augment node features with multi-hop operators and apply MLPs node-wise; GNNs are compared as a baseline.
result GA-MLPs can distinguish almost all non-isomorphic graphs but cannot count attributed walks, unlike GNNs.
Paper proposes GAS-ALD model for financial risk prediction.
problem Skewed distribution of financial return data.
method Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD).
result GAS-ALD model predicts VaR and ES more accurately than traditional models.
Optimizes routing in decentralized exchanges with gas fees.
problem Routing in decentralized exchanges with fixed gas fees.
method General optimization framework with mixed-integer model, incorporating gas fees.
result Explicit Karush-Kuhn-Tucker system linking prices, fees, and activation.
We calculate the free energy of Coulomb gas systems on Riemann surfaces.
problem Analyzing the free energy of Coulomb gas systems on Riemann surfaces.
method Using bosonization formula and analytic torsion, we derive the asymptotic expansion of the partition function.
result We prove the geometric version of the Zabrodin-Wiegmann conjecture in the determinantal case.
Study the geometry of gas giant planets to infer their internal structure.
problem Determine the interior structure of gas giant planets using boundary data.
method Geometric analysis of Riemannian manifolds with conformal blow-up at the boundary.
result The interior structure of a gas giant is uniquely determined by different types of boundary data.
This is a lecture note for the course DS-GA 3001 <Natural Language Understanding with Distributed Representation> at the Center for Data Science , New York University in Fall, 2015. As the name of the course suggests, this lecture note introduces readers to a neural network based approach to natural language understand…
GAS-Norm improves deep learning time series forecasting in non-stationary settings.
problem Deep learning models struggle with non-stationary time series data.
method Combines GAS model for adaptive normalization with deep neural networks.
result Improves deep learning performance in 21 out of 25 settings.
Modeling gas fee competition in decentralized exchanges to optimize arbitrage profits.
problem Gas fees and transaction ordering in decentralized exchanges create arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a first equilibrium model of gas fee competition between two arbitrageurs under three transaction reversion settings.
result Mixed equilibria exist, and their characteristics depend on inventory risk and transaction settings.
Paper introduces MN-DAG for modeling evolving causal relationships in multivariate time series.
problem Modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different scales.
method Probabilistic generative model based on spectral and causality theories, combined with Bayesian stochastic variational inference.
result MN-CASTLE outperforms baseline models in identifying causal relationships in multivariate time series data.
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity λ of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction λ of its money and trades with t…
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity λ of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction λ of its money and trades with t…
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…