Proposes natural analyst models for more optimistic data analysis bounds.
problem Pessimistic generalization guarantees in adaptive data analysis.
method Modeling analyst knowledge as evolving dynamical system, defining recency and anchoring biases.
result Smooth interpolation between non-adaptive and adaptive bounds, capturing standard optimization methods.
This study uses NLP to predict stock performance based on analyst reports.
problem Predicting stock performance using textual information from analyst reports.
method Natural language processing (NLP) and a customized BERT deep learning model for Chinese text.
result Strong positive sentiment in analyst reports increases excess return and intraday volatility, while strong negative sentiment increases volatility and trading volume but decreases excess return.
Generative AI boosts analyst reports but increases forecast errors.
problem Improving financial analyst reports with AI.
method Natural experiment using FactSet's AI platform.
result AI-assisted reports are more comprehensive but lead to higher forecast errors.
Requirements elicitation requires extensive knowledge and deep understanding of the problem domain where the final system will be situated. However, in many software development projects, analysts are required to elicit the requirements from an unfamiliar domain, which often causes communication barriers between analys…
Sell-side analysts' reports explain 10% of stock returns, with income statement analyses most impactful.
problem The value of sell-side analysts' information in predicting stock returns.
method Analysis of large language model embeddings and Shapley value decomposition.
result Income statement analyses contribute most to explaining stock returns.
Trading strategy uses analyst coverage network to outperform markets.
problem Leveraging spillover effects between firms through analyst network.
method Graph attention network to aggregate firm and network signals.
result Annualized returns of 29.44% and Sharpe ratio of 4.06.
Analysts use vague language in reports to convey useful information about future payoffs.
problem Lack of precise numerical forecasts in analyst reports.
method Empirical analysis of analyst reports to assess the predictive power of linguistic tone.
result The textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions, especially when language is vague and uncertainty is high.
Analyst reports contain valuable information for investment decisions.
problem Investment value in analyst reports is not fully understood or utilized.
method Embedded analyst reports with LLMs and ML forecasts of future returns.
result Portfolios formed on analyst report narratives outperform numerical forecasts and established factors.
AI system analyzes financial analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio construction.
problem Human PMs rely on analyst recommendations and track records for portfolio decisions.
method Develops AI-based Recommender Systems to replicate analyst conviction and track records.
result AI can improve portfolio construction by integrating analyst conviction and track records.
An analytic process is iterative between two agents, an analyst and an analytic toolbox. Each iteration comprises three main steps: preparing a dataset, running an analytic tool, and evaluating the result, where dataset preparation and result evaluation, conducted by the analyst, are largely domain-knowledge driven. In…
Improved earnings predictions through text-morphed earnings calls.
problem Improving earnings prediction models using narrative information.
method Introducing a text-morphing methodology to generate counterfactual transcripts.
result Analysts over-react to sentiment and under-react to risk and uncertainty.
Study examines how uncertainty visualization affects analyst trust in automated classification systems.
problem The impact of uncertainty on analyst trust in automated classification systems.
method Empirical study evaluating different active learning query policies and visualizations.
result Query policy significantly influences analyst trust in automated classification systems.
Research builds an index measuring analysts' perception of informational asymmetry.
problem Measuring the level of informational asymmetry among companies.
method Developed an algorithm based on Elo rating to capture analysts' perception.
result The model shows good fit with significant variables: coverage, volatility, Tobin q, and size.
Study uses neural networks to predict firm earnings, outperforming benchmarks and analysts.
problem Limited coverage and biased estimates by financial analysts.
method Developed a neural network model using 40 years of financial data.
result Model outperforms benchmarks and analysts' forecasts for fiscal-year-end earnings predictions.
In many applications, an anomaly detection system presents the most anomalous data instance to a human analyst, who then must determine whether the instance is truly of interest (e.g. a threat in a security setting). Unfortunately, most anomaly detectors provide no explanation about why an instance was considered anoma…
LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.
problem Evaluating financial statements without narrative or industry-specific information.
method Trained GPT4 on standardized, anonymous financial statements and instructed to predict earnings direction.
result LLMs predict earnings directionally with accuracy comparable to narrowly trained ML models.
Study finds many stocks in S&P 500 are inefficient, suggesting financial analysts outperform blindfolded monkeys.
problem Degree of inefficiency in U.S. stock market performance.
method Confidence intervals for proportions to assess inefficiency in S&P 500 components.
result Proportion of inefficient stocks in the S&P 500 index estimated to be between 12.13% and 27.87%
We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density functi…
AutoYara generates effective Yara rules faster than humans.
problem Developing high-quality Yara rules for malware families is labor-intensive.
method Leverages biclustering on large n-grams to automate Yara rule generation.
result AutoYara reduces analyst workload by 44-86% and matches human performance.
HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors by lowering travel friction.
problem How HSR connectivity affects analyst earnings forecast errors in China.
method Firm-year panel data from 2008-2019; placebo test to rule out pre-existing trends.
result HSR reduces analyst earnings forecast errors after connectivity, not before.
Optimizes task allocation for financial analysts to balance work efficiency and well-being.
problem Balancing business goals with financial analysts' well-being in error resolution tasks.
method Used a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to optimize task allocation considering both business goals and analyst well-being.
result GA model outperforms existing methods and is applicable to various real-world scenarios.
Study evaluates LLMs like ChatGPT and GPT-4 on financial analysis tasks.
problem Assessing financial reasoning capabilities of large language models.
method Mock CFA exam questions, Zero-Shot, Chain-of-Thought, Few-Shot scenarios.
result LLMs perform well on financial analysis tasks, but have limitations.
Improved stock price prediction using LSTM with customized loss function and analyst calls.
problem Forecasting stock prices using LSTM neural networks.
method Customized LSTM model with improved loss function, analyst calls integration, and attention units.
result Improved performance of LSTM model over ARIMA for stock price prediction.
Analysis of an organization's computer network activity is a key component of early detection and mitigation of insider threat, a growing concern for many organizations. Raw system logs are a prototypical example of streaming data that can quickly scale beyond the cognitive power of a human analyst. As a prospective fi…
Anomaly detectors are often used to produce a ranked list of statistical anomalies, which are examined by human analysts in order to extract the actual anomalies of interest. Unfortunately, in realworld applications, this process can be exceedingly difficult for the analyst since a large fraction of high-ranking anomal…
Detects systematic anomalies in consumer complaints using NLP.
problem Detecting small, frequent anomalies in consumer complaints.
method NLP conversion of narratives, followed by anomaly detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of NLP for detecting systematic anomalies.
A CBR approach helps fraud analysts trust machine learning predictions.
problem Understanding the trustworthiness of machine learning predictions for fraud analysts.
method Case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to visualize similar previous instances and their local post-hoc explanations.
result Empirically, the visualization of similar previous instances is useful and easy to use for fraud analysts.
NAS-Navigator automates neural network architecture search with visual steering.
problem Difficulty in configuring large neural networks efficiently.
method Formulates architecture optimization as graph space exploration, trains all candidate architectures in one-shot.
result Allows analysts to effectively select and guide the search for optimal neural network architectures.
Machine learning improves earnings forecasting accuracy and speed.
problem Improving earnings forecasting accuracy and speed.
method Adopting machine learning models for earnings forecasting.
result Machine learning model outperforms traditional models in accuracy and speed.
Study categorizes mutual funds using natural language processing from unstructured data.
problem Categorizing mutual funds using unstructured data for financial analysis.
method Used natural language processing models to classify mutual funds from their investment strategy descriptions.
result High accuracy in categorizing mutual funds using NLP from unstructured data.
A good clustering can help a data analyst to explore and understand a data set, but what constitutes a good clustering may depend on domain-specific and application-specific criteria. These criteria can be difficult to formalize, even when it is easy for an analyst to know a good clustering when they see one. We presen…
Requirements elicitation can be very challenging in projects that require deep domain knowledge about the system at hand. As analysts have the full control over the elicitation process, their lack of knowledge about the system under study inhibits them from asking related questions and reduces the accuracy of requireme…
A good clustering can help a data analyst to explore and understand a data set, but what constitutes a good clustering may depend on domain-specific and application-specific criteria. These criteria can be difficult to formalize, even when it is easy for an analyst to know a good clustering when she sees one. We presen…
TradingAgents uses LLM-powered multi-agent framework for financial trading.
problem Lack of collaborative dynamics in multi-agent financial trading systems.
method Inspired by real-world trading firms, TradingAgents features specialized LLM-powered agents and a risk management team.
result Framework outperforms baseline models in trading performance metrics.
The paper proposes a method to improve sales forecasts by selecting optimal reference classes.
problem Improving forecasts of sales growth exposed to behavioural bias.
method Finding optimal reference classes for each company based on specific predictors and matching forecast distributions to actual sales.
result The past operating margins are strong predictors for future sales distributions.
Active learning improves anomaly detection by tuning ensembles with true labels.
problem Configuring anomaly detectors for minimal effort on false positives.
method Compact description, data drift detection, active learning strategies.
result Active learning significantly improves anomaly discovery and adapts to streaming data.
Study on helix curves and their Möbius energy asymptotics.
problem Understanding the asymptotic behavior of Möbius energy for helix curves.
method Investigation of helix curves with fixed radius, focusing on energy decay and blow-up.
result Proven asymptotics for both uncoiling and coiling helix curves, revealing distinct strategies for each.
Framework adds human knowledge to AI decisions to improve outcomes.
problem Conflict between AI recommendations and human insights.
method Develops a framework for integrating human knowledge as a guardrail for AI decisions.
result Human knowledge can improve AI decisions, especially in specific pitfalls.
A method to assess sensitivity to unmeasured confounding with sharp bounds.
problem Assessing the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal effects.
method Sets two intuitive parameters to estimate sensitivity intervals.
result Bounds on true causal effects can be tighter than existing methods.
Model predicts stock price direction with high accuracy using analyst ratings and technical indicators.
problem Rejecting the Efficient Market Hypothesis by generating excess returns on the stock market.
method Leveraged technical and fundamental indicators, used various classification models, and applied feature ranking.
result Overall accuracy of 83.62%, precision of 85% for buy signals, and recall of 100% for sell signals.
Illegal insider trading of stocks is based on releasing non-public information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Detecting illegal insider trading is difficult due to the complex, nonlinear, and non-stationary nature of the stock ma…
Model earnings call transcripts for better stock price prediction.
problem Predicting future stock price movements using earnings call transcripts.
method Deep learning framework with an attention mechanism to encode text data into vectors for predicting stock price movements.
result The proposed model outperforms traditional machine learning methods in stock price prediction.
Develops an anytime-valid framework for optimal policy identification from logged contextual bandit data.
problem Selecting the optimal policy from a candidate policy class while monitoring evidence continuously.
method Constructs a time-indexed set that retains the true optimal policy set uniformly over time.
result The procedure allows the analyst to monitor policy values, eliminate clearly suboptimal policies, and stop at data-dependent times without invalidating inference.
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
problem Tackles the challenge of understanding and predicting stock returns using professional beliefs.
method Embeds analyst consensus as a structural bottleneck, treating it as a sufficient statistic for market information.
result CB-APM portfolios exhibit strong monotonic return gradients and robust across different economic conditions.
In this note we would like to present "an analysts' point of view" on the Nash-Kuiper theorem and in particular highlight the very close connection to some aspects of turbulence -- a paradigm example of a high-dimensional phenomenon.
Automate residual plot assessment with R package and Shiny application
problem Diagnosing linear models
method Computer vision model for residual plot assessment
result Predicts visual signal strength and supports model fit assessment
Flexible estimator synthesizes noisy experiments and covariates for optimal effect estimation.
problem Simultaneous analysis of many noisy experiments with rich covariate information.
method Plug-in empirical Bayes estimator that synthesizes noisy experimental results and covariates.
result Within a constant factor of minimax for a simple data-generating model, and robust convergence guarantees hold under generality.
The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.
problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.