Study describes how national credit operations emerge from subnational data.
problem Understanding national credit dynamics from subnational data.
method Proposed diffusion process to aggregate subnational credit operations.
result National credit dynamics accurately described with proposed model.
Study examines how BRICS nations' economies respond to COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on BRICS nations' economic indicators.
method Structural variable autoregression (SVAR) to analyze growth, exchange rate, and stock market data.
result COVID-19 shock to exchange rate growth persists for 10+ days, stock market growth for 15 days.
DeepAPT uses neural networks to accurately attribute APTs to nation-states.
problem Attributing advanced persistent threats (APT) to specific nation-states is challenging due to multiple cyber units and evasion techniques.
method Used deep neural networks (DNN) trained on sandbox reports to learn feature abstractions of APTs.
result Achieved an accuracy rate of 94.6% on a dataset of 1,000 Chinese and Russian APTs.
Deep neural networks classify nation-state malware with high accuracy.
problem Classifying and attributing advanced persistent threats (APT) from nation-states.
method Used deep neural networks to analyze malware behavior in a sandbox, learning high-level feature abstractions.
result Achieved 98.6% accuracy in classifying 1000 Chinese and Russian APTs.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
D-ETM models document topics over time using embeddings and variational inference.
problem Capturing evolving topic patterns in sequential documents.
method Combines D-LDA and word embeddings, using random walk priors and variational inference.
result D-ETM outperforms D-LDA on document completion tasks, learning more diverse and coherent topics.
Model predicts capital flow dynamics between developed and developing nations.
problem Understanding capital flow dynamics between developed and developing countries.
method Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) framework, proving solution existence, numerical technique for non-linear functions.
result Comparative dynamic analyses reveal the impact of model parameters on capital inflow, interest rates, and exchange rates.
We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank st…
We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of …
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
problem Understanding complex international trade and economy interactions.
method Developed a mathematical model for non-equilibrium processes in open systems.
result Predicted model accurately reflects international trade and economy.
National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and academics to assess social theories. National statistical systems vary in quality, …
Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
problem Understanding the volatility and inequality in cryptocurrency prices.
method Calculated inequality measures (Gini, Kolkata indices, Q factor) for cryptocurrency and national currency price fluctuations over 10 years. result Cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
Complexity science integrates natural and social sciences to understand socio-economic dynamics.
problem Chronic poverty and lack of understanding of societal development.
method Use of tools from natural sciences to analyze socio-economic factors.
result Integration of natural and social sciences reveals synergistic mechanisms driving societal evolution.
The study reveals nations drive scientific research for social and economic interests.
problem Why do nations produce scientific research?
method Synthesizes previous concepts of science and scientific research, defines them, and identifies key drivers.
result Scientific research is driven by nations' social and economic interests, not just for philosophical inquiries.
Study shows how national culture influences investors' tendency to hold or sell stocks.
problem Investors' tendency to hold or sell stocks varies internationally.
method Examined brokerage data from 83 countries, analyzed cultural dimensions and age/gender.
result National culture, specifically long-term orientation and indulgence, influences the disposition effect.
Study optimizes health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.
problem Designing health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.
method Inverse behavioral optimization framework integrating QALY-based incentives and adaptive learning.
result Modern health systems operate near an efficiency-saturated frontier, with small fairness adjustments yielding diminishing returns.
European prosperity linked to specific cultural and social factors.
problem Understanding prosperity in European nations.
method Data mining of economic, psychological, social, and cultural indicators.
result Distinct prosperity syndrome in European nations.
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme p…
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
problem Insurers struggle to detect long-range dependence in their mortality data.
method Cointegration techniques applied to mixed fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) to capture long-range dependence.
result Cointegration brings long-range dependence information from national mortality data to insurers' models.
Dynamic clustering for time series data with evolving memberships.
problem Clustering multivariate time series data with dynamic membership changes.
method Dynamic Linear Models and Dirichlet evolution for mixture weights, with Gibbs sampling and efficient point estimation methods.
result Efficient dynamic clustering of time series data with evolving memberships.
The DoD needs a robust process to evaluate AI/ML model performance and robustness.
problem AI/ML models are brittle and nonrobust, posing risks in national security.
method Reviews AI/ML development process and best practices for evaluation.
result Recommendations for DoD evaluators to ensure robust AI/ML capabilities.
The application of existing methods for constructing optimal dynamic treatment regimes is limited to cases where investigators are interested in optimizing a utility function over a fixed period of time (finite horizon). In this manuscript, we develop an inferential procedure based on temporal difference residuals for …
A method based on wavelet transform and genetic programming is proposed for characterizing and modeling variations at multiple scales in non-stationary time series. The cyclic variations, extracted by wavelets and smoothened by cubic splines, are well captured by genetic programming in the form of dynamical equations. …
The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
problem Forecasting future conflict states for national policy decisions.
method Conformal prediction on Markov processes for temporally-dependent data.
result Conformal prediction provides valid uncertainty quantification and robustness to model misspecification.
The paper challenges the assumption that majority voting rights equate to 'effective control' in foreign ownership regulations.
problem The assumption that majority voting rights determine 'effective control' in foreign ownership regulations is flawed.
method The paper proposes and demonstrates a method for calculating 'effective control' based on voting thresholds and weights.
result The 'effective control' of a foreign minority stockholder can be higher than their shareholding size, challenging the assumption that majority voting rights equate to 'effective control'.
New complete panel dataset for LMICs helps analyze innovation and development.
problem Lack of complete data for empirical analyses in LMICs.
method Predictive Mean Matching multiple imputation technique.
result Created a large dataset of 47 variables for 82 LMICs from 2005-2019.
Study examines the impact of employment benefit costs on firm profitability.
problem Impact of employment benefit costs on firm profitability.
method Panel data regression analysis using E-Views.
result There is a significant positive relationship between employment benefit costs and firm profitability.
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or Internet memes shared via social media. Neuron spikes stimulate or inhibit spike…
Divestment from fossil fuels can accelerate climate policy, study finds.
problem Achieving Paris climate agreement requires reducing fossil fuel reserves.
method Stochastic agent-based model of financial market and investors' beliefs.
result Small share of socially responsible investors can initiate decarbonization.
CPAS uses machine learning to plan hospital resources for COVID-19.
problem Forecasting hospital resource demands during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Combining machine learning algorithms with diverse data sources.
result CPAS successfully managed hospital resource planning in the UK.
Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.
problem Understanding mixed economies in various countries.
method Developed an econophysics model with a reduced state sector participation.
result Proposed a new model with a 10-15% state sector participation.
Dynamic prize linked savings aims to increase account sizes and manage risks.
problem Limited appeal and low account sizes in prize linked savings.
method Proposes a dynamic prize linked savings model and three risk management methods.
result Effective risk management methods were tested and shown to mitigate severe risks.
Paper presents a machine learning algorithm for hedging ETF options, outperforming static hedging methods.
problem Semi-static hedging of ETF options with transaction costs and varying market conditions.
method Data-driven machine learning algorithm considering transaction costs, automated portfolio management, and PnL attribution analysis.
result The static hedging approach outperforms dynamic hedging methods in terms of profit and loss.
Analyzes national real estate investment risks and returns.
problem Investors and home buyers face increasing costs and risks.
method Examines economic vulnerabilities and traditional market analysis.
result Ensures positive returns and fair prices for real estate investments.
Model improves surgical complication prediction using latent factor learning.
problem Tackles prediction of surgical complications.
method Transfer learning via latent factor modeling.
result Improves risk assessment model for surgery patients.
Measures economic complexity using Shannon entropy.
problem Measuring the intricacy of national economies.
method Formulated economic complexity as average bits to encode production flow, derived from Markov chain model.
result Illustrated complexity measure with national economies data.
Improved county-level COVID-19 forecasting model using LSTM and data augmentation.
problem Accurately forecasting county-level COVID-19 cases to optimize medical resources.
method Adapted TDEFSI-LONLY model, utilized LSTM, data augmentation, and inter-county mixing.
result CLEIR-Net model provides better forecasts than TDEFSI-LONLY.
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
Dynamic question ordering improves survey completion and imputation quality.
problem Engage respondents and collect complete information for accurate imputations.
method Personalized question order based on earlier responses to maximize survey completion and imputation quality.
result Personalized question order increases survey completion and imputation quality.
This is an expanded and updated version of a lecture series I gave at Seoul National University in September 1997. It is in some sense an update of the 1979 Griffiths and Harris paper with a similar title. I discuss: Homogeneous varieties, Topology and consequences Projective differential invariants, Varieties with deg…
Study optimal treatment assignment policies under strategic agent responses.
problem Learning optimal treatment policies with strategic agents complicates estimation.
method Dynamic model with threshold convergence to mean-field equilibrium, consistent estimator for policy gradient.
result Threshold for treatment assignment converges to mean-field equilibrium threshold under large but finite number of agents.
Study shows Swiss franc exchange rate dynamics influenced by central bank's barrier, contradicting physics analogy.
problem Incorrect first-order analogy between physics and economics in currency exchange rate dynamics.
method Analogy between Brownian motion in finance and physics, empirical estimates of drift and volatility, revising initial economics-physics analogy.
result Corrected dynamics of exchange rate described by Krugman's target zone model and stochastic differential equation.
Paper uses STPN for energy/power prediction in complex systems.
problem Predicting energy in complex dynamical systems.
method Spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) framework with mutual information metric.
result Improved energy prediction accuracy in wind and residential energy contexts.
The paper proposes a hybrid approach using MODWT and machine learning for stock index prediction.
problem Predicting stock index with improved accuracy for financial markets.
method Hybrid approach combining MODWT decomposition and ANN/SVR machine learning models.
result The MODWT-SVR model outperformed other models in terms of return on investment.
Estimates cost savings from early cancer diagnosis.
problem Improving early cancer diagnosis to reduce treatment costs.
method Combining published cancer treatment cost estimates by stage with incidence rates by stage at diagnosis, and extrapolating to other cancer sites.
result Estimates U.S. national annual treatment cost-savings from early cancer diagnosis in the trillions.
Georg de Buquoy, Lord de Vaux, lived in Nove Hrady, Prague and Cerveny Hradek for most of his productive life. From his extensive scientific contributions, both theoretical and experimental, we expand here the discussion of his contributions to mathematical economy. He is mainly celebrated as the first persons to defin…
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
problem Financial and economic consequences of a zombie epidemic.
method Epidemiological modeling and financial computation.
result GDP losses of 23.44% and financial market drop of 29.30% in a major industrialized nation.
With this work it is analyzed the import and export of horticultural products between Portugal and the other world countries. It is used data about Portuguese international trade of vegetables from 2006 to 2010. The data were obtained from the INE (Statistics Portugal), gently given by the AICEP (Trade & Investment Age…