Model shows how advisors can manipulate naive investors.
problem How financial advisors manipulate naive investors.
method Agent-Based Model with Nash equilibria and best response functions.
result Greediness/naivety of investors emerge naturally from the model.
Naive investors make riskier choices than optimal strategies in continuous-time finance.
problem Continuous-time Markowitz portfolio selection with naive reoptimization.
method Analytical derivation of naive policies from discretely naive policies.
result Naive policies are always riskier and less efficient than equilibrium policies.
Study finds key investing characteristics for success in equity markets.
problem Understanding what traits lead to financial success in equity markets.
method Exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression on 403 respondents' data.
result Investing characteristics significantly impact individual investors' excess return.
Investors face constraints in Heston's model; optimal allocation differs from naive capped strategy.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with convex constraints in Heston's stochastic volatility model.
method Applied duality methods to derive a closed-form solution.
result The optimal constrained portfolio allocation differs from the naive capped portfolio, leading to different wealth outcomes.
Dynamic econometric models improve trading signals in momentum strategies.
problem Static momentum strategies are inefficient; dynamic models enhance accuracy.
method Dynamic binary classifier model to learn time-varying momentum importance.
result Dynamic classifier outperforms traditional naive time series momentum strategy.
This paper extends the classical consumption and portfolio rules model in continuous time (Merton 1969, 1971) to the framework of decision-makers with time-inconsistent preferences. The model is solved for different utility functions for both, naive and sophisticated agents, and the results are compared. In order to so…
For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider normal distribution of returns and market efficiency hypothesis. It forced investors…
An online framework improves investment management by making incremental updates.
problem Offline investment processes restrict silos from collectively pursuing a unified goal.
method Developed an online algorithm workflow for portfolio management.
result The online framework outperforms market benchmarks and reduces overfitting.
The study identifies impactful news articles based on liquidity changes, improving asset return prediction.
problem Evaluating the sentiment of financial news articles for institutional investors.
method Liquidity-driven variables are used to identify impactful news articles, focusing on liquidity mode switches.
result The screened dataset leads to superior performance in short-term asset return prediction.
Deep learning models improve earnings prediction accuracy.
problem Reliable prediction of future earnings per share (EPS).
method Comparison of LSTM and TCN models on financial data.
result Both LSTM and TCN models outperform naive models and analysts.
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.
Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes classifier has surprised machine learning researchers by exhibiting good performance on a variety of learning problems. Encouraged by these results, researchers have looked to overcome naive Bayes primary weakness - attribute independence - and improve the performance of the algo…
I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and sma…
Paper introduces Generalized Naive Bayes for better data fitting.
problem Improving Naive Bayes for better data fitting.
method Developed new greedy and optimal algorithms for GNB.
result Proves GNB fits data at least as well as classical NB.
Improved Naive Bayes classifier with neural network models.
problem Limited complexity handling and independence assumption in Naive Bayes.
method Introducing Neural Naive Bayes and Neural Pooled Markov Chain models.
result Error rate reduced by 4.5 on IMDB dataset.
Sophisticated volatility models outperform naive portfolio strategies.
problem Improving mean-variance portfolio performance over the naive 1/N strategy.
method Investigated various econometric and portfolio models across multiple datasets.
result Most models achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower portfolio volatility than the naive rule.
Naive Bayes estimator is widely used in text classification problems. However, it doesn't perform well with small-size training dataset. We propose a new method based on Naive Bayes estimator to solve this problem. A correlation factor is introduced to incorporate the correlation among different classes. Experimental r…
A widely applied diversification paradigm is the naive diversification choice heuristic. It stipulates that an economic agent allocates equal decision weights to given choice alternatives independent of their individual characteristics. This article provides mathematically and economically sound choice theoretic founda…
The paper compares one-hot encoding to Naïve Bayes for categorical variables.
problem Incorrect one-hot encoding affects Naïve Bayes performance.
method Mathematical and experimental analysis of PoB vs. categorical Naïve Bayes.
result Posterior probabilities are usually greater in the PoB case, but agree on the maximum a posteriori class label.
Study on stock portfolio concentration among Finnish households and investors.
problem Understanding the concentration of stock portfolios owned by Finnish households and investors.
method Analysis of stock portfolios using Herfindahl-Hirschman index over 20 years.
result High portfolio concentration observed in Finnish retail investors, similar to institutional investors.
Investor skill levels affect optimal portfolio size, study shows.
problem Optimal portfolio size for different skill levels of investors.
method Mathematical methods to study annual and continuous portfolio diversification, regression analysis.
result Strong investors should hold concentrated portfolios, poor investors should hold diversified portfolios.
Proposes a non-convex optimization method for a parsimonious weighted naive Bayes classifier.
problem Improving naïve Bayes classifier performance with a large number of input variables.
method Sparse regularization of model log-likelihood for direct estimation of variable weights.
result Optimization-based weighted naïve Bayes classifiers achieve equivalent performance to averaging-based classifiers.
Young investors, especially students, dominate Indonesian stock exchanges.
problem Investment behavior of young and rookie investors in the stock market.
method Qualitative approach with descriptive analysis and interviews.
result Perception of behavioral control influences investment decisions.
Modeling investor behavior from financial advisor notes using NLP.
problem Identifying behavioral coaching opportunities for financial advisors.
method Topic modeling and supervised classification model.
result Predicting investor needs during adverse market conditions.
Study finds investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
problem Investor sentiment and stock returns relationship in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
method Used indirect measures of investor sentiment (SENT and ARMS) and Granger causality tests.
result Sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns, but not the other way around.
Due to its linear complexity, naive Bayes classification remains an attractive supervised learning method, especially in very large-scale settings. We propose a sparse version of naive Bayes, which can be used for feature selection. This leads to a combinatorial maximum-likelihood problem, for which we provide an exact…
Proposes a sparse Naïve Bayes classifier to improve performance and interpretability.
problem Naïve Bayes assumes feature independence, which is violated in real data.
method Integrates feature correlation and performance measures for feature selection.
result Competitive results in accuracy, sparsity, and running times for balanced datasets.
Social media reduces individual investors' disposition effect through negative information.
problem The disposition effect in individual investors selling profitable assets too early and holding onto losing assets for too long.
method Analysis of post data and trading data from Xueqiu.com.
result Social media information significantly reduces the disposition effect.
Robo-advisor learns investor's risk preference through portfolio choices.
problem Learning investors' risk preferences without prior knowledge.
method Reinforcement learning framework with exploration-exploitation algorithm.
result Algorithm's value function converges to optimal over polynomial periods.
This paper analyzes how multiple investors can exploit relative arbitrage opportunities.
problem Analyzing how multiple investors can exploit relative arbitrage opportunities.
method Constructing a well-posed market dynamical system of McKean-Vlasov type, deriving optimal strategies, and finding Nash equilibrium.
result The conditions for relative arbitrage opportunities among competitive investors are derived.
Although the understanding of and motivation behind individual trading behavior is an important puzzle in finance, little is known about the connection between an investor's portfolio structure and her trading behavior in practice. In this paper, we investigate the relation between what stocks investors hold, and what …
Investment disputes increase stock volatility, especially for companies with negative outcomes.
problem Investment disputes affect stock market volatility and investor uncertainty.
method Analysis of abnormal share fluctuations and various explanatory variables.
result Investment disputes lead to increased stock volatility, particularly for companies with negative outcomes.
We study the (standard) cohomology Hst∙(E) of a Courant algebroid E. We prove that if E is transitive, the standard cohomology coincides with the naive cohomology Hnaive∙(E) as conjectured by Stienon and Xu. For a general Courant algebroid we define a spectral sequence converging to its stan…
Research identifies four motivational groups for crypto-metaverse landowners.
problem Understanding motivations of retail investors in the crypto-metaverse.
method Detailed financial behavior survey and principal components analysis.
result Four distinct motivational groups identified: Aesthetics, Social, Speculation, Innovation.
Study shows adding similar investors can either increase or decrease profits, depending on their strategy.
problem Investors argue conflictingly about the impact of adding similar investors on their profits.
method Built an agent-based financial market model with additional agents and investigated their earnings.
result Adding similar fundamental agents stabilizes market prices and decreases profits, while adding similar technical agents makes prices unstable and increases profits.
Study shows cryptocurrency investor base affects volatility.
problem Investor base changes impact cryptocurrency volatility.
method Proxying investor base with subreddit follower changes, analyzed idiosyncratic volatility.
result Changes in cryptocurrency investor base significantly increase idiosyncratic volatility.
Investors suffer welfare loss despite having better information.
problem Welfare loss among investors with absolute information advantages.
method Examined financial markets with heterogenous investors and objective measures of welfare.
result Investors incur welfare loss even with better information, revealing a double loss phenomenon.
Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.
problem Understanding retail investor behavior in asset bubbles.
method Systematic study of NFTs using public blockchain data.
result Sophisticated investors outperform others in NFT bubbles.
This paper proposes an efficient method for calculating Shapley values in Naive Bayes classifiers.
problem The need for explaining machine learning model decisions.
method An exact analytic expression of Shapley values for Naive Bayes classifiers.
result The proposed Shapley values provide informative results with low complexity and low computation time.
Multilayer networks are attracting growing attention in many fields, including finance. In this paper, we develop a new tractable procedure for multilayer aggregation based on statistical validation, which we apply to investor networks. Moreover, we propose two other improvements to their analysis: transaction bootstra…
Naive Bayes can be used as a discriminative classifier, matching the definition of logistic regression.
problem The definition of generative and discriminative classifiers.
method Comparing Naive Bayes and logistic regression, showing they can be used in either generative or discriminative ways.
result Naive Bayes can be used as a discriminative classifier.
Covid lockdown increased interest in Italian stock market, leading to new investors.
problem Impact of Covid lockdown on Italian stock market investors.
method Analysis of trading activity and investor demographics before and during lockdown.
result New investors during lockdown were more skilled traders than pre-lockdown investors.
Investor flows in Korean equity market transmit shared information, not private signals.
problem Whether investor flows transmit private information or only public signals.
method Transfer Entropy networks constructed from investor-type flows over
umNDates{} trading days.
result Investor flows transmit shared information, not private signals.
Game theory models storage investment to balance market competition and profits.
problem Strategic storage investment impacts electricity market prices and revenues.
method Formulated a non-cooperative game between investors to model strategic storage decisions.
result Increasing storage capacity reduces individual profits but increases total investment.
Two new Hie-TAN and Hie-TAN-Lite algorithms improve TAN for hierarchical feature spaces.
problem Learning dependencies in hierarchical feature spaces.
method Exploits hierarchical parent-child relationships as constraints to learn a dependency tree.
result Hie-TAN-Lite outperforms Hie-TAN and other methods in predictive accuracy.
The paper examines stability of shares in Proof of Stake protocol, identifying different investor behaviors and phase transitions.
problem Stability of shares in Proof of Stake protocol.
method Identification of large, medium, and small investors under various rewarding schemes; dynamical population model analysis.
result Phase transitions and thresholds for stability are characterized; chaotic centralization leads to concentration of shares.
We consider an auction market in which market makers fill the order book during a given time period while some other investors send market orders. We define the clearing price of the auction as the price maximizing the exchanged volume at the clearing time according to the supply and demand of each market participants.…
Geometric approach combines asset returns and investor views for better portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolios with investor-specific views.
method Generalized Wasserstein barycenter (GWB) to integrate statistical asset returns and investor views.
result The geometric approach offers more flexibility and rewards for correct investor views.