Study risk-constrained Kelly optimization for mutually exclusive outcomes, proving support invariance and developing a structured algorithm.
problem Risk-constrained Kelly optimization for mutually exclusive outcomes with explicit state prices.
method Analyzes the finite mutually exclusive outcome version of risk-constrained Kelly optimization with explicit state prices, proving support invariance and developing a structured algorithm.
result Support is invariant across CRRA parameter and drawdown-surrogate parameter in the overround regime.
We study the dynamics of co-evolution of producers and customers described by bit-strings representing individual traits. Individual ''size-like'' properties are controlled by binary encounters which outcome depends upon a recognition process. Depending upon the parameter set-up, mutual selection of producers and custo…
The paper proposes a model to learn disentangled representations using mutual information.
problem Learning disentangled representations from shared and exclusive attributes.
method Mutual information maximization for shared attributes and minimization for disentanglement.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models in representation disentanglement.
A new method for optimizing stakes in a single event with multiple outcomes.
problem Maximizing expected log wealth in a single event with multiple outcomes.
method Using implicit state positions to derive the optimal stake formula.
result A compact formula and greedy algorithm for support selection.
In this paper we consider the problem of semi-supervised learning with deep Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets). Semi-supervised learning is motivated on the observation that unlabeled data is cheap and can be used to improve the accuracy of classifiers. In this paper we propose an unsupervised regularization term…
Meta-learning improved by using information theory to prioritize data-driven adaptation.
problem Challenges in meta-learning due to the need for mutually-exclusive tasks.
method Designing a meta-regularization objective using information theory.
result Successfully uses data from non-mutually-exclusive tasks to efficiently adapt to novel tasks.
Introduces joint exclusivity (JE), a new form of negative dependence.
problem Negative dependence structures in probability distributions.
method Defines JE by exclusion of the interior of the non-negative orthant, establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for existence, proposes a canonical construction.
result Sharp necessary and sufficient condition for existence of JE random vectors with prescribed marginals.
After admission to emergency department (ED), patients with critical illnesses are transferred to intensive care unit (ICU) due to unexpected clinical deterioration occurrence. Identifying such unplanned ICU transfers is urgently needed for medical physicians to achieve two-fold goals: improving critical care quality a…
It is well known that a random vector with given marginal distributions is comonotonic if and only if it has the largest sum with respect to the convex order [ Kaas, Dhaene, Vyncke, Goovaerts, Denuit (2002), A simple geometric proof that comonotonic risks have the convex-largest sum, ASTIN Bulletin 32, 71-80. Cheung (2…
This paper demonstrates dynamic hyper-parameter setting, for deep neural network training, using Mutual Information (MI). The specific hyper-parameter studied in this paper is the learning rate. MI between the output layer and true outcomes is used to dynamically set the learning rate of the network through the trainin…
fastHDMI improves neuroimaging variable selection in high-dimensional data.
problem Efficient variable screening in high-dimensional neuroimaging datasets.
method Three mutual information estimation methods implemented in fastHDMI.
result FFTKDE-based method superior for continuous nonlinear outcomes.
Polymarket users exploit mispriced assets for profit.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis using on-chain historical order book data.
result 40 million USD of profit extracted from arbitrage opportunities.
Various measures can be used to estimate bias or unfairness in a predictor. Previous work has already established that some of these measures are incompatible with each other. Here we show that, when groups differ in prevalence of the predicted event, several intuitive, reasonable measures of fairness (probability of p…
The girth of a finitely generated group G is the supremum of the girth of Cayley graphs for G over all finite generating sets. Let G be a finitely generated subgroup of the mapping class group Mod(S), where S is a compact orientable surface. Then, either G is virtually abelian or it has infinite girth; moreover, if we …
This paper introduces efficient approximations for fairness criteria in regression models.
problem Measuring fairness in real-valued outcomes (regression settings) is computationally challenging.
method Fast approximations of mutual information for independence, separation, and sufficiency fairness criteria.
result The method achieves state-of-the-art accuracy/fairness tradeoffs in real-world datasets.
There is a sequence of positive numbers δ2n, such that for any connected 2n-dimensional Riemannian manifold M, there are two mutually exclusive possibilities: 1) There is a complex structure on M making it into a Kähler manifold, or 2) For any almost complex structure J compatible with the metric, at e…
MEG models for dynamic networks estimate dependencies and shared latent space relationships.
problem Modeling dynamic networks with shared latent space relationships and dependencies.
method MEG combines mutually exciting point processes and latent space models to estimate node-specific parameters and unobserved edges.
result MEG models can estimate intensities for unobserved edges, useful for anomaly detection in real-world applications.
Overlapping clustering problem is an important learning issue in which clusters are not mutually exclusive and each object may belongs simultaneously to several clusters. This paper presents a kernel based method that produces overlapping clusters on a high feature space using mercer kernel techniques to improve separa…
Improved statistical efficiency of Thompson Sampling for combinatorial semi-bandits.
problem Efficiency of policies in stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandits with semi-bandit feedback.
method Analysis of Combinatorial Thompson Sampling (CTS) using Beta and Gaussian priors for mutually independent and multivariate sub-Gaussian outcomes.
result CTS provides an efficient policy with optimal asymptotic regret for both mutually independent and multivariate sub-Gaussian outcomes.
We review two strands of conceptual approaches to the formal representation of a decision maker's non-knowledge at the initial stage of a static one-person, one-shot decision problem in economic theory. One focuses on representations of non-knowledge in terms of probability measures over sets of mutually exclusive and …
Fair Adversarial Networks remove bias from data.
problem Bias in datasets leads to biased outcomes, making analysis illegal and sub-optimal.
method Remove bias from data by altering all proxy variables, ensuring fairness without changing analytical pipelines.
result Fair Adversarial Networks effectively remove bias from data.
In reinforcement learning (RL), temporal abstraction still remains as an important and unsolved problem. The options framework provided clues to temporal abstraction in the RL, and the option-critic architecture elegantly solved the two problems of finding options and learning RL agents in an end-to-end manner. However…
Theorem ensures superior learning outcomes for authorized learners with quantum label encoding.
problem Ensuring data security for authorized learners in machine learning.
method Quantum label encoding and PAC learning framework.
result Authorized learners achieve superior learning outcomes while eavesdroppers do not.
This paper tackles multi-modal label disentanglement in partition-based XMC.
problem Existing partition-based XMC methods create mutually exclusive clusters, which is sub-optimal for multi-modal labels.
method Formulates label assignment as an optimization problem to maximize precision rates, creating flexible and overlapped label clusters.
result Successfully disentangles multi-modal labels, leading to state-of-the-art results on XMC benchmarks.
We derive fundamental sample complexity bounds for recovering sparse and structured signals for linear and nonlinear observation models including sparse regression, group testing, multivariate regression and problems with missing features. In general, sparse signal processing problems can be characterized in terms of t…
In this paper we study the problem of acoustic scene classification, i.e., categorization of audio sequences into mutually exclusive classes based on their spectral content. We describe the methods and results discovered during a competition organized in the context of a graduate machine learning course; both by the st…
New causal measures improve feature selection in AI models.
problem Lack of causal interpretability in AI models.
method Introduces causal entropy and causal information gain to assess feature control.
result Demonstrates superiority of causal information gain in feature selection.
A new DP algorithm for weighted ERM protects sensitive data in predictive models.
problem Protecting sensitive personal information in predictive models trained via ERM.
method Proposes the first differentially private algorithm for weighted ERM with formal privacy guarantees.
result Demonstrates strong DP guarantees while maintaining robust performance in real-world data.
Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.
problem Understanding how a treatment affects an outcome through intermediate variables.
method Proposes a test to evaluate full mediation and causal mechanism identification, extending to non-randomly assigned treatments.
result A conditionally random treatment is conditionally independent of the outcome given mediators and covariates if full mediation and causal mechanism identification hold.
Latent variable models with hidden binary units appear in various applications. Learning such models, in particular in the presence of noise, is a challenging computational problem. In this paper we propose a novel spectral approach to this problem, based on the eigenvectors of both the second order moment matrix and t…
The use of mutual information as a similarity measure in agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) raises an important issue: some correction needs to be applied for the dimensionality of variables. In this work, we formulate the decision of merging dependent multivariate normal variables in an AHC procedure as a Bay…
We discuss the behavior of two magnitudes, physical complexity and mutual information function of the outcome of a model of heterogeneous, inductive rational agents inspired in the El Farol Bar problem and the Minority Game. The first is a measure rooted in Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory and the second one a measure related…
PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.
problem Discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks and optional penalization.
method Regularized estimation methods, model evaluation metrics, variable screening tools, and simulation module.
result Supports research and development in discrete-time survival analysis.
Paper proposes learning causal graphs with only relevant variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in large-scale graphs often includes irrelevant variables.
method Developed NSCSL algorithm to learn necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG).
result NSCSL algorithm identifies relevant causal features for specific outcomes.
In the last years efforts in econophysics have been shifted to study how network theory can facilitate understanding of complex financial markets. Main part of these efforts is the study of correlation-based hierarchical networks. This is somewhat surprising as the underlying assumptions of research looking at financia…
New causal analysis reconciles predictive and statistical fairness.
problem Mutual exclusivity of predictive and statistical fairness notions.
method Derive a new causal decomposition formula for fairness measures.
result Predictive and statistical fairness are complementary, not mutually exclusive.
Develops a method to ensure fairness across multiple sensitive attributes in machine learning.
problem Ensuring fairness among demographic groups formed by multiple sensitive attributes.
method Formulates intersectional fairness as a mutual information minimization problem and proposes a generic end-to-end algorithmic framework.
result Demonstrates effective debiasing of classification results with minimal impact to accuracy.
Study optimizes fairness in predictive models by balancing utility and separation.
problem Balancing fairness and utility in predictive models.
method Information-theoretic approach using conditional mutual information (CMI).
result Reduces separation violations while maintaining or improving utility.
Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial issue in numerous modelling problems, particularly in the fields of biology and e…
New algorithm selects relevant variables in high-dimensional graphical models.
problem Automatic selection of relevant variables in high-dimensional graphical models.
method Extends Chow and Liu's algorithm using mutual information and entropy coefficient of determination.
result Outperforms existing methods in selecting variables with explanatory power.
Research quantifies financial exclusion risks in UK, focusing on cash infrastructure and socio-economic factors.
problem Localised financial exclusion in the UK as cash infrastructure declines.
method Developed a composite indicator using various input variables.
result Financial exclusion is more prevalent in deprived communities and affluent areas.
New method controls bias in training data for fair outcomes.
problem Ensuring equal treatment between different groups in machine learning.
method Contrastive information estimation to control mutual information between representations and protected attributes.
result Our method provides strong theoretical guarantees on the parity of any downstream algorithm.
The paper proves neural networks with ReLU and softmax can approximate any function.
problem Approximating functions and class labels in neural networks.
method Extended universal approximator theory to neural networks with ReLU and softmax.
result Neural networks with ReLU and softmax can approximate any function and class labels.
One of the problems on the way to successful implementation of neural networks is the quality of annotation. For instance, different annotators can annotate images in a different way and very often their decisions do not match exactly and in extreme cases are even mutually exclusive which results in noisy annotations a…
Many practical applications such as gene expression analysis, multi-task learning, image recognition, signal processing, and medical data analysis pursue a sparse solution for the feature selection purpose and particularly favor the nonzeros \emph{evenly} distributed in different groups. The exclusive sparsity norm has…
Paper tackles estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
problem Estimating the difference between outcomes with and without treatment from single observation.
method Formulated as inference from hidden variables, uses a model of four causal populations, proposes ECM algorithm.
result ECM algorithm provides better performance compared to baseline methods on synthetic and real-world data.
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.
We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance c…