A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We present an optimal investment theorem for a currency exchange model with random and possibly discontinuous proportional transaction costs. The investor's preferences are represented by a multivariate utility function, allowing for simultaneous consumption of any prescribed selection of the currencies at a given term…
In this paper, we solve the arms exponential exploding issue in multivariate Multi-Armed Bandit (Multivariate-MAB) problem when the arm dimension hierarchy is considered. We propose a framework called path planning (TS-PP) which utilizes decision graph/trees to model arm reward success rate with m-way dimension interac…
For incomplete preference relations that are represented by multiple priors and/or multiple -- possibly multivariate -- utility functions, we define a certainty equivalent as well as the utility buy and sell prices and indifference price bounds as set-valued functions of the claim. Furthermore, we motivate and introduc…
We introduce Contrastive Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis, a novel unsupervised method for dimensionality reduction and signal decomposition of time series data. By utilizing an appropriate background dataset, the method transforms a target time series dataset in a way that evinces the sub-signals that are enhan…
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a r…
In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly the model can e…
We consider the topic of multivariate regression on manifold-valued output, that is, for a multivariate observation, its output response lies on a manifold. Moreover, we propose a new regression model to deal with the presence of grossly corrupted manifold-valued responses, a bottleneck issue commonly encountered in pr…
We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of assets is prohibitively large, we propose a factor multivariate stochastic volatili…
Generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) are introduced for generating quasi-random samples from multivariate models with any underlying copula in order to compute estimates under variance reduction. So far, quasi-random sampling for multivariate distributions required a careful design, exploiting specific propertie…
Bayesian method for knot inference in multivariate spline regression.
problem Inference on knot locations in multivariate spline regression due to non-differentiability and varying dimensions.
method Fully Bayesian approach with a new prior on knot number and analytic formula for normal model, extended Bayesian information criterion for non-normal cases, reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo.
result Demonstrated superior performance in function fitting with jumping discontinuity.
Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This differs from the usual approach of defining static betting functions. It is sho…
We consider the problem of predicting several response variables using the same set of explanatory variables. This setting naturally induces a group structure over the coefficient matrix, in which every explanatory variable corresponds to a set of related coefficients. Most of the existing methods that utilize this gro…
In this paper we investigate a utility maximization problem with drift uncertainty in a multivariate continuous-time Black-Scholes type financial market which may be incomplete. We impose a constraint on the admissible strategies that prevents a pure bond investment and we include uncertainty by means of ellipsoidal un…
MES-LSTM hybrid method improves multivariate time series forecasting and mortality modeling.
problem Challenges in applying hybrid forecast methods to multivariate data.
method Generalized multivariate extension of ES-RNN, utilizing vectorized implementation.
result MES-LSTM shows significant improvement over pure statistical and deep learning methods in forecast accuracy and prediction interval construction.
We explore martingale and convex duality techniques to study optimal investment strategies that maximize expected risk-averse utility from consumption and terminal wealth. We consider a market model with jumps driven by (multivariate) marked point processes and so-called non-linear wealth dynamics which allows to take …
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copul…
We propose a probabilistic model for inferring the multivariate function from multiple areal data sets with various granularities. Here, the areal data are observed not at location points but at regions. Existing regression-based models can only utilize the sufficiently fine-grained auxiliary data sets on the same doma…
Temporal Pattern Mining (TPM) is the problem of mining predictive complex temporal patterns from multivariate time series in a supervised setting. We develop a new method called the Fast Temporal Pattern Mining with Extended Vertical Lists. This method utilizes an extension of the Apriori property which requires a more…