New method detects structural shifts in multivariate Hawkes processes.
problem Detecting changes in multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Using Fréchet statistics on overlapping windows of causal network.
result Accurately detects and characterizes changes in causal structure.
New MGCPP model for order flow in financial markets.
problem Modeling order flow dynamics in financial markets.
method Developed MGCPP, proved LLN and FCLTs, applied to real data.
result Validated MGCPP model with real trading data.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with respect to boundary conditions on a multidimensional constraint variable, whose evo…
A new model uses neural networks to efficiently learn multivariate temporal point processes.
problem Efficiently modeling multivariate temporal point processes with low parameter complexity.
method Modeling the cumulative hazard function with neural networks for each variate.
result The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on data fitting and event prediction tasks.
The paper introduces new processes for modeling multivariate volatility.
problem Developing new stochastic processes for multivariate volatility modeling.
method Introducing Volterra Wishart and Volterra pure jump processes with fractional kernels.
result Affine covariance processes for multivariate volatility modeling.
Efficiently models multiple correlated point data using generalized LGCPs.
problem Joint modeling of multiple correlated point data.
method Generalized LGCP framework with Gaussian process priors and variational inference.
result Orders of magnitude faster inference compared to existing methods.
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms. We show that many sigma-point methods can be interpreted as Gaussia…
New method uncovers hidden causal connections in multivariate point process networks.
problem Unobserved hidden variables confound causal discovery in high-dimensional point process networks.
method Proposes a deconfounding procedure to estimate causal interactions among observed nodes with unknown unobserved processes.
result The method accurately identifies causal interactions among observed processes, even with hidden variables.
A new metric space model for point process excitations uncovers hidden interactions.
problem Estimating pairwise interactions in multivariate Hawkes processes is often infeasible.
method Developed a Hidden Hawkes Geometry (HHG) model to embed event types in a metric space.
result Learning the embedding reveals salient interactions in various applications.
Proposes a new model for complex multivariate event data.
problem Modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics.
method Integrates spatial information into latent state evolution through learned temporal and spatial decay dynamics.
result Successfully recovers sensible temporal and spatial intensity structure in multivariate spatio-temporal point patterns.
The paper models financial data with multivariate jump processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of financial data with jumps.
method Defined multivariate point processes driven by stochastic jumps, providing stability conditions.
result Nonlinear models fit financial data best, showing jumps cluster during crises.
Model for inferring multivariate functions from areal data.
problem Inferring multivariate functions from areal data with varying granularities.
method Probabilistic model using Gaussian processes with spatial aggregation.
result Model effectively estimates spatial correlations and dependencies between areal data sets.
Develops quasi-likelihood analysis for marked point processes and applies it to Hawkes processes.
problem Analyzing multivariate marked point processes and their applications.
method Quasi-likelihood analysis for a general class of multivariate marked point processes, with focus on marked Hawkes processes.
result The quasi-likelihood analysis for marked Hawkes processes provides explicit conditions for ergodicity and Markovian transformation.
Noise-Contrastive Estimation improves efficiency for estimating log-likelihood of complex point processes.
problem Estimating log-likelihood of complex multivariate point processes is computationally expensive.
method Noise-Contrastive Estimation adapted for multivariate point processes, with provable guarantees.
result Our method achieves similar log-likelihood with fewer evaluations and less time.
Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we study causal relationships (excitations) that are realized by a multivariate Hawke…
Automates learning of multivariate diffusions for generative models.
problem Lack of automated methods for choosing and optimizing diffusion processes in generative models.
method Develops a recipe to maximize likelihood without model-specific analysis, parameterizes diffusion for target noise, and optimizes the inference diffusion process.
result Automatic search over all linear diffusions for generative models.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
DyRep learns dynamic graph node embeddings efficiently.
problem Efficiently encoding evolving information over dynamic graphs into low-dimensional representations.
method Inductive deep representation learning framework using time-scale dependent multivariate point process model.
result Significantly outperforms baselines on real-world datasets for dynamic link and event time prediction.
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
problem Modeling high-frequency financial data with complex residual distributions.
method Introduces self and mutually exciting point process with discretely Markovian dynamics.
result Flexible residual distributions improve intensity modeling and high-frequency data estimation.
The paper uses Fourier integral theorem for estimating multivariate distributions.
problem Estimating multivariate distributions and conditional distribution functions.
method Natural Monte Carlo and fully nonparametric estimators based on Fourier integral theorem.
result Explicit Monte Carlo estimators without estimated covariance matrix.
New model scales MHPs for analyzing large-scale diffusion processes.
problem Complex temporal dependencies in MHPs make them hard to scale.
method Exploits sparsity in diffusion processes to compute MHP likelihood and gradients efficiently.
result Improves runtime performance by multiple orders of magnitude on sparse event sequences.
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…
Paper proposes a simple estimator for DPP correlation kernels.
problem Estimating the correlation kernel matrix of DPPs.
method Closed-form estimator for correlation kernel, easy to implement.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator proved.
Estimates neuronal connectivity from spike times using flexible Hawkes processes.
problem Learning latent network structure from multivariate point process data.
method Proposes a new nonstationary Hawkes process and uses sparse least squares estimation.
result Establishes non-asymptotic error bounds and selection consistency for estimated parameters.
New method detects bearing faults using multivariate statistical process control.
problem Early detection of bearing faults in rotating machinery.
method Multivariate statistical process control charts applied to Fourier transform features of fixed-time batches.
result Effectiveness in detecting bearing faults across different conditions.
Method tracks change-points in crypto-assets extremes.
problem Tracking change-points in multivariate extremes.
method Statistical method for modeling change-points on crypto-assets extremes.
result Developed a method to track crypto-assets extremes.
A genetic algorithm improves multivariate kernel density estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating multivariate kernel density functions.
method Genetic algorithm applied to subsamples of the original data.
result The genetic algorithm-based estimator performs better than traditional methods.
New process capability index for non-normal data.
problem Measuring process capability when data does not follow normal distributions.
method Developed a new multivariate non-parametric PCI using Support Vector Data Description (SVDD).
result Demonstrated improved accuracy in process capability measurement for non-normal data.
DSPPs improve predictive distributions in scalable regression tasks.
problem Improving predictive distributions in scalable regression tasks.
method Inspired by DGPs, DSPPs use mini-batch training and kernel basis functions for uncertainty control.
result DSPPs provide significantly better calibrated predictive distributions than other methods.
This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process, the mixture model has the advantages of modeling multimodal data and alleviating…
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to empirical data, particularly for the accurate quantification of self- and mutual-exc…
We derive Gaussian approximations for random forest predictions using region-based stabilization.
problem Improving the accuracy of random forest predictions for Poisson process data.
method Region-based stabilization and Malliavin-Stein method for multivariate Gaussian approximation.
result Established Gaussian approximation bounds for random forest predictions under Poisson process.
Bayesian model learns complex multivariate dependencies.
problem Learning dependency structures across multiple dimensions.
method Flexible Gaussian process priors and Dirichlet process for structure learning.
result Efficient variational inference for model parameters.
New kernel handles irregularly-spaced multivariate time series.
problem No kernel exists for irregularly-spaced multivariate time series.
method Built a series kernel from vector kernels, ensuring it's PSD.
result Validated the series kernel on multiple datasets and time series classification.
A new method for signal processing using piecewise convex fitting.
problem Nonparametric function estimation in signal processing.
method Two-stage adaptive estimate with strong smoothing and constrained smoothing spline fit.
result Piecewise convex fitting reduces MSE and accurately estimates change points.
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has immigration-birth representation. Based on that, Fierro et al. recently introduced…
Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
problem Identifying which coordinates in multivariate time series change after a detected change-point.
method Two-sample testing procedures with nonparametric tests for Type I error control.
result Strong performance of proposed post hoc statistical procedures.
New statistical inference method for high-dimensional Hawkes processes.
problem Uncertainty evaluation of network estimates in high-dimensional point process data.
method Develops a new statistical inference procedure using concentration inequalities and martingale central limit theory.
result Characterizes the convergence rate of test statistics for high-dimensional Hawkes processes.
We propose a family of multivariate Gaussian process models for correlated outputs, based on assuming that the likelihood function takes the generic form of the multivariate exponential family distribution (EFD). We denote this model as a multivariate generalized Gaussian process model, and derive Taylor and Laplace al…
Archimedean copulas are popular in the world of multivariate modelling as a result of their breadth, tractability, and flexibility. A. J. McNeil and J. Nešlehová (2009) showed that the class of Archimedean copulas coincides with the class of multivariate ℓ1-norm symmetric distributions. Building upon their result…
New insights into tail behavior of heavy-tailed random vectors and processes.
problem Understanding tail behavior of aggregates of heavy-tailed random vectors.
method Analyzing multivariate regularly varying random vectors and Lévy processes.
result More than one large jump can determine tail behavior of aggregates.
A new method detects changes in multivariate data using random forests.
problem Detecting changes in multivariate data.
method A computationally feasible search method using random forests and class probability predictions.
result Consistently locates change points in simulations.
Robust clustering methods for multivariate time series data.
problem Clustering multivariate time series data robustly to outliers.
method Quantile-based fuzzy C-means with metric, noise, and trimmed approaches.
result Robust methods outperform alternatives in handling outlying series.
New model captures time and mark inter-dependence in TPPs.
problem Limited predictive performance of conditionally independent TPP models on entangled time and mark interactions.
method Developed a multivariate TPP that models conditional inter-dependence of time and mark, using both intensity-based and intensity-free models.
result Proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks.
New method reconstructs networks from spatiotemporal data.
problem Network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data.
method Multivariate Hawkes processes using both temporal and spatial information.
result Spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction.
Large deviation principles for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of log-processes in multivariate stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle for log-processes.
result Asymptotic formulas for first exit times and barrier option prices derived from the LDP.
Modeling dependent defaults with multivariate Cox processes.
problem Capturing dependence in default times.
method Multivariate generalized Cox process with càdlàg, increasing processes.
result Closed-form expressions for joint survival probabilities.