New framework assesses and benchmarks ML methods for multivariate time series.
problem Benchmarking and explaining performance of machine learning methods.
method Proposes a new framework with systematized performance-explainability characteristics.
result Illustrates application to multivariate time series classifiers.
A new framework for generating predictive features in noisy multivariate time series.
problem Predicting noisy multivariate time series with limited user effort.
method Develops a feature programming framework based on spin-gas dynamical Ising models.
result Validated the method on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper proposes counterfactual explanations for ML on multivariate time series data.
problem Lack of user trust and difficulty in debugging ML frameworks using multivariate time series data.
method Proposes a novel explainability technique for providing counterfactual explanations.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art explainability methods in metrics like faithfulness and robustness.
Proposes MinPEN framework for estimating relationships in multivariate models.
problem Estimating relationships between multivariate outcomes in statistical learning.
method MinPEN framework using minimum function penalty for non-convex optimization.
result Theoretical and practical validation of MinPEN framework for multivariate models.
New method reduces density estimation variance for multivariate data.
problem Efficient multivariate density estimation with reduced dimensionality.
method Variance-Reduced Sketching (VRS) framework for multivariate density estimation.
result VRS framework significantly improves density estimation over existing methods.
Regularizes ML algorithms for robust multivariate analysis against distribution shifts.
problem Ensuring robustness of multivariate analysis algorithms against distribution shifts.
method Integrates a causal regularisation term into the loss function of multivariate analysis algorithms.
result Demonstrates improved out-of-distribution generalisation with reduced-rank regression and partial least squares.
Enhanced multivariate GARCH model using LSTM for better volatility forecasting.
problem Limitations of traditional multivariate GARCH in capturing persistent volatility and co-movement.
method Integrates deep learning (LSTM) into multivariate GARCH models to capture nonlinear and dynamic dependence structures.
result Superior out-of-sample portfolio risk forecast compared to traditional methods.
New method assesses multivariate stochastic dominance using Optimal Transport.
problem Benchmarking models across multiple metrics considering dependencies.
method Characterization of multivariate first stochastic dominance via couplings, entropic regularization, and Optimal Transport.
result Established CLT and consistency for the empirical statistic, enabling hypothesis testing.
A new framework detects anomalies in multivariate time-series data.
problem Lack of explicit relationships between time-series data.
method Graph Attention Network framework that considers temporal and feature dependencies.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets.
Modeling dependent defaults with multivariate Cox processes.
problem Capturing dependence in default times.
method Multivariate generalized Cox process with càdlàg, increasing processes.
result Closed-form expressions for joint survival probabilities.
New scoring rules for multivariate distributions and level sets.
problem Evaluating forecast accuracy for multivariate distributions and level sets.
method Theoretical framework for scoring rules, decomposition of multivariate scoring functions, numerical algorithm for computation.
result New scoring functions for multivariate distributions and level sets, including density and cumulative distribution level sets.
Proposes a GNN framework for multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Lack of exploiting latent spatial dependencies in multivariate time series forecasting.
method Automatically extracts graph structures from multivariate time series data, integrates external knowledge, and uses mix-hop and dilated inception layers for capturing dependencies.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on 3 out of 4 benchmark datasets.
Regularized MFPCA smooths multivariate functional data for clearer patterns.
problem Challenges in controlling roughness of multivariate functional PCs.
method ReMFPCA incorporates a roughness penalty in a penalized framework to smooth PCs.
result Smoothed multivariate functional PCs reveal clearer patterns.
New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.
problem Improving risk assessment in multivariate settings.
method Inspired by univariate OCE, introduces convex, monotonic, cash-invariant measures.
result Numerical algorithms provide error estimates for computations.
Bayesian DDR models complex multivariate distributions.
problem Modeling relationships between multivariate distributions with differing dimensions.
method Generalized Bayesian framework using sliced Wasserstein distance and MALA for inference.
result Posterior consistency and robust fits demonstrated in simulations and real data.
A new notion of stochastic ordering is introduced to compare multivariate stochastic risk models with respect to extreme portfolio losses. In the framework of multivariate regular variation comparison criteria are derived in terms of ordering conditions on the spectral measures, which allows for analytical or numerical…
Proposes mCS for multivariate selection with FDR control.
problem Selecting high-quality candidates from multivariate datasets.
method Introduces regional monotonicity and multivariate nonconformity scores.
result Significantly improves selection power with FDR control.
Proposes ACLAE-DT for unsupervised anomaly detection in multivariate time series.
problem Challenges in building anomaly detection frameworks for multivariate time series data.
method Attention-based ConvLSTM Autoencoder with Dynamic Thresholding.
result Demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art methods.
New framework for calculating multivariate risk measures using Wishart process.
problem Quantifying multivariate risk measures in financial markets.
method Introducing a new analytical framework based on the Wishart process.
result Explicit computation of conditional tail risk measures up to two dimensions.
New metric for disentangling multivariate representations, accounting for more complex entanglements.
problem Current disentanglement metrics fail to detect entanglements involving more than two variables.
method Partial Information Decomposition framework to analyze information sharing and propose a new disentanglement metric.
result The proposed metric correctly identifies entanglements in high-dimensional spaces.
Study uses regression and ML for COVID-19 mortality forecasting.
problem Forecasting COVID-19 mortality during the first wave in Spain.
method Cyclical curve log-regression, multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis, Bayesian approach, machine learning.
result Empirical analysis shows ML regression models perform better than traditional methods.
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
New algorithm extracts shared latent space for cortico-muscular interactions.
problem Challenges of high dimensionality and limited sample sizes in multivariate cortico-muscular analysis.
method Structured and sparse partial least squares coherence (ssPLSC) algorithm.
result ssPLSC achieves competitive or better performance in scenarios with limited sample sizes and high noise levels.
Study invariant connections on multivariate Gaussian distributions.
problem Understanding statistical connections on multivariate Gaussian distributions.
method Investigate invariant connections on N0n with the Fisher metric. result Explicitly determined invariant connections and their moduli spaces.
Unified econometric model for portfolio optimization and option valuation.
problem Time-varying volatility and heavy tails in asset returns.
method Multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations.
result Substantial wealth-equivalent utility losses from ignoring correlation and tail risk.
This paper extends hypergraph construction to multivariate time series using signature transforms.
problem Constructing hypergraphs from collections of multivariate time series.
method Leveraging signature transforms to introduce controlled randomness and robustness.
result Validated on synthetic datasets, the method enhances robustness in hypergraph construction.
Optimizes minimum-volume prediction sets for multivariate regression.
problem Lack of efficient methods for multivariate conformal prediction.
method Optimization-driven framework for minimum-volume covering sets.
result Efficient and informative prediction sets with tight coverage.
Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and anomaly detection. One convenient (non-parametric) characterization of extremal de…
Paper presents a framework for learning generative models with structured latent factors.
problem Learning controllable and generalizable representations of multivariate data with desired structural properties.
method The paper introduces a novel generative model framework that uses mask variables to model dependency structure and extends the multivariate information bottleneck theory.
result The framework learns semantically meaningful latent factors that reflect various desired structures and can automatically estimate dependency structure from data.
PySAD offers a unified Python framework for efficient streaming anomaly detection.
problem Efficient anomaly detection in streaming data with strict constraints.
method Unified architecture with 17+ streaming algorithms, specialized components, and support for multiple learning paradigms.
result PySAD enables real-time processing with bounded memory and is compatible with other Python frameworks.
A new risk measure framework captures multivariate risk in banking.
problem Scalar risk measures fail to capture the multivariate nature of risk in banking.
method A novel multivariate risk measure framework based on the Magnitude-Propensity approach.
result The proposed framework provides a more comprehensive characterization of extreme events.
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
problem Inability of traditional risk measures for heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail expectations.
method Multivariate definitions of robust truncated tail expectations, robustness and properties derived, closed-form expressions and special cases discussed.
result Empirical estimators accuracy examined through numerical and graphical examples.
In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly the model can e…
Paper introduces a new risk measure for multivariate residual estimation.
problem Quantifying residual estimation risk in complex financial models.
method Developed a multivariate framework for residual estimation risk, defined using various risk measures, and proposed a back-testing criterion.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the new measure through back-testing on retail credit portfolios.
Develops a new model to better estimate cryptocurrency and stock volatility.
problem Misrepresentation of volatility and co-movement in traditional models.
method Introduces liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework with novel liquidity measures.
result Liquidity-adjusted models yield more stable and interpretable risk structures.
Enformer and GEnformer use Transformers with stochastic learning to forecast multivariate and spatiotemporal data with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate time series and spatiotemporal forecasting.
method Synthesizing Transformer's expressive power with stochastic learning to model conditional distributions directly.
result Enformer and GEnformer yield calibrated probabilistic forecasts and outperform state-of-the-art baselines.
This paper improves PPCA robustness using t-distributions.
problem Improving robustness of probabilistic PCA.
method Using multivariate t-distributions and a hierarchical model. result Clarified the correct correspondence between the multivariate t-PPCA framework and the hierarchical model. Develops a new GLM framework for claims reserving with adaptive estimation.
problem Accurate assessment of claims reserves with dynamic and dependent claim activity.
method Multivariate evolutionary GLM framework with adaptive particle filtering algorithm.
result Adaptive estimation of evolving factors improves claims reserve accuracy.
Unified and simplified signature method for multivariate time series.
problem Challenging application of signature method due to its flexibility.
method Generalised signature method unifying various techniques.
result Competitive performance against benchmarks for multivariate time series classification.
Deep learning models complex multivariate extremes using geometric shapes.
problem Modeling complex extremal dependencies in high-dimensional data.
method Geometric representation and deep learning for flexible semi-parametric models.
result First approach to modeling limit sets using deep learning for high-dimensional data.
A Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium (SORTE) was introduced in: "Systemic optimal risk transfer equilibrium", Mathematics and Financial Economics (2021), for the analysis of the equilibrium among financial institutions or in insurance-reinsurance markets. A SORTE conjugates the classical Bühlmann's notion of a …
Proposes MVG-CRPS for robust multivariate forecasting.
problem Outliers in multivariate forecasting lead to significant errors.
method Integrates CRPS for MVG distributions, optimizing with MVG-CRPS.
result Improves robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification.
CRL framework groups features for multivariate learning with sparse and dense problems.
problem Sparse and dense problems in supervised multivariate learning.
method Clustered reduced-rank learning (CRL) with joint matrix regularizations.
result CRL framework is more interpretable and relaxes sparsity assumption.
Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution. Although it is effective in many cases, re-formulation is not always workable a…
Framework clusters noisy MTS with robust fuzzy clustering, improving accuracy over existing methods.
problem Challenges in clustering multivariate time series due to non-stationary dependencies, noise, and state boundaries.
method Spectral fuzzy clustering using Kendall's tau-based canonical coherence for frequency-specific monotonic relationships.
result Framework outperforms existing methods in clustering noisy, high-dimensional MTS.
We introduce a model for causal structure learning from multivariate functional data, even when graphs have cycles.
problem Discovering causal relationships from multivariate functional data with cycles.
method Functional linear structural equation model with a low-dimensional causal embedded space.
result The proposed model is causally identifiable under standard assumptions.
Neural optimal transport improves multivariate conformal prediction.
problem Multivariate quantile regression challenges and existing methods ignore joint distribution geometry.
method Combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization for efficient training and faster inference.
result Constructs tighter and more informative predictive regions for multivariate conformal prediction.
Framework detects anomalies in industrial processes using deep learning.
problem Detect anomalies in complex industrial processes.
method Causal-based framework with unsupervised deep learning.
result Successfully validated abstract contexts of blast furnace assets.