We generalize the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) framework to model multiple correlated point data jointly. The observations are treated as realizations of multiple LGCPs, whose log intensities are given by linear combinations of latent functions drawn from Gaussian process priors. The combination coefficients are als…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “multiplicative processes”
We develop methods to estimate lag and parameters for multiple stable autoregressive processes.
problem Estimating lag and parameters for multiple stable autoregressive processes with unknown lag.
method Use convex programming to simultaneously select lag and estimate parameters across multiple processes.
result The estimated process is stable, and forecasting errors can outperform known rates.
Often in machine learning, data are collected as a combination of multiple conditions, e.g., the voice recordings of multiple persons, each labeled with an ID. How could we build a model that captures the latent information related to these conditions and generalize to a new one with few data? We present a new model ca…
Exact results on power-law distributions in systems with resets.
problem Understanding power-law distributions in systems with resets.
method Exact mathematical analysis of multiplicative processes with resets.
result Power-law distributions are built up over time and their moments behave quantitatively determined by parameters.
Extends Gaussian Process regression for handling multiple prior distributions.
problem Handling multiple prior distributions in Bayesian Machine Learning models.
method Mixtures of Gaussian Processes with analytical and Sparse Variational approaches.
result Effective in accounting for prior misspecification in functional regression problems.
The study investigates noise effects on parameter estimation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
problem Impact of noise on parameter fitting for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
method Proposed algorithms to distinguish between thermal and multiplicative noise.
result Effective methods to estimate parameters even when multiplicative noise dominates.
We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables,…
MTNPs jointly model multiple correlated tasks from various sources.
problem Naive NPs can only model a single stochastic process and infer tasks independently.
method MTNPs are a hierarchical extension of NPs that jointly infer tasks from multiple stochastic processes, considering inter-task correlation and handling incomplete data.
result MTNPs successfully model multiple tasks jointly, discovering and exploiting their correlations in various real-world data.
Enhances robustness of MOGP regression for multiple correlated outputs.
problem Model misspecification and outliers in MOGP regression.
method Extends RCGP framework to multi-output setting.
result Provable robust MOGP with joint correlation capture.
Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation…
New method separates multiple voices in mixed audio.
problem Separating multiple simultaneous speakers in audio.
method Gated neural networks trained at multiple steps, selecting actual number of speakers.
result Outperforms current state of the art for more than two speakers.
Joint Estimation and Inference for Multi-Experiment Networks of High-Dimensional Point Processesstat.ME
Proposes a method to estimate and infer networks from multiple high-dimensional point processes.
problem Estimating and inferring networks from multiple high-dimensional point processes with shared and unique structures.
method Joint estimation procedure for networks of high-dimensional point processes incorporating weights to encourage similarity.
result Powerful hierarchical multiple testing procedure for edges of all estimated networks, controlling family-wise error rate.
This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism d…
We provide a general and tractable framework under which all multiple yield curve modeling approaches based on affine processes, be it short rate, Libor market, or HJM modeling, can be consolidated. We model a numeraire process and multiplicative spreads between Libor rates and simply compounded OIS rates as functions …
We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data. Sparsity in the kernel weights is obtained by adopting a hierarchical Bayesian approa…
We introduce a novel kernel that models input-dependent couplings across multiple latent processes. The pairwise joint kernel measures covariance along inputs and across different latent signals in a mutually-dependent fashion. A latent correlation Gaussian process (LCGP) model combines these non-stationary latent comp…
We extend the calculus of multiplicative vector fields and differential forms and their intrinsic derivatives from Lie groups to Lie groupoids; this generalization turns out to include also the classical process of complete lifting from arbitrary manifolds to tangent and cotangent bundles. Using this calculus we give a…
The paper introduces a method for learning nonparametric Volterra kernels using Gaussian processes.
problem Learning nonparametric nonlinear operators from data.
method NVKM model using Volterra series and Gaussian processes for unobserved and observed input functions.
result The NVKM model can perform both single and multiple output regression and system identification.
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
New method learns multiple reward functions for complex tasks.
problem Learning reward functions for tasks with multiple ways of solving.
method Combines maximum entropy approach with Dirichlet process clustering.
result Method accurately learns reward functions for complex tasks.
Effects of Randomness on Power Law Tails in Multiplicatively Interacting Stochastic Processescond-mat.stat-mech
Effects of randomness on non-integer power law tails in multiplicatively interacting stochastic processes are investigated theoretically. Generally, randomness causes decrease of the exponent of tails and the growth rate of processes. Explicit calculations are performed for two examples: uniformly distributed and two p…
Deep Intrinsic Coregionalization Multi-Output Gaussian Process Surrogate with Active Learningstat.ML
DeepICMGP surrogate models multiple outputs efficiently.
problem Challenges in modeling dependencies between multiple outputs using traditional multi-output GPs.
method Introduces hierarchical coregionalization structures across layers in DGPs.
result Demonstrates competitive performance and active learning strategies.
A Nonparametric Adaptive EWMA Control Chart for Binary Monitoring of Multiple Stream Processesstat.ML
A new control chart detects shifts in binary data streams quickly and reliably.
problem Early detection of small shifts in multiple binary data streams.
method Cumulative Standardized Binomial EWMA (CSB-EWMA) chart with exact variance derivation.
result Adaptive control limits ensure robust detection across different data distributions.
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive Wiener processes. While the former is modulated by the internal behavior of the syste…
This paper extends the analysis of Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) to the case of marked point processes. We consider multiple marked point processes with intensities defined by three multiplicative components, namely a common baseline intensity, a state-dependent component specific to each process, and a state-dependent …
We develop a modelling framework for multiple yield curves driven by continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI processes). Exploiting the self-exciting behavior of CBI jump processes, this approach can reproduce the relevant empirical features of spreads between different interbank rates. In particular…
Study reduces NAS search cost by generating multiple complex architectures in one shot.
problem Finding multiple neural architectures with varying complexities efficiently.
method Uses importance sampling to generate and update multiple distributions of architectures.
result Reduces search cost by finding multiple architectures with different complexities in a single search.
The paper explores the identifiability and interpretability of Gaussian process models using different kernel structures.
problem Identifiability and interpretability issues in Gaussian process models.
method The paper examines both single-output and multi-output Gaussian process models using additive and multiplicative mixtures of Matérn kernels.
result The smoothness of a mixture of Matérn kernels is determined by the least smooth component, and none of the mixing weights or parameters are identifiable.
In some options markets (e.g. commodities), options are listed with only a single maturity for each underlying. In others, (e.g. equities, currencies), options are listed with multiple maturities. In this paper, we provide an algorithm for calibrating a pure jump Markov martingale model to match the market prices of Eu…
Driven by the multi-level structure of human intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recordings of epileptic seizures, we introduce a new variant of a hierarchical Dirichlet Process---the multi-level clustering hierarchical Dirichlet Process (MLC-HDP)---that simultaneously clusters datasets on multiple levels. Our sei…
In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly analysed. We focus on learning the relationships among financial time series by …
In this paper we develop a framework for discretely compounding interest rates which is based on the forward price process approach. This approach has a number of advantages, in particular in the current market environment. Compared to the classical as well as the Lévy Libor market model, it allows in a natural way for…
Machine learning for multiple yield curve markets: fast calibration in the Gaussian affine frameworkq-fin.PR
The paper explores using machine learning for yield curve calibration in multiple markets.
problem Calibration challenges in multiple yield curve markets.
method Gaussian process regression and Adam optimizer.
result Good results for single curve markets, but many challenges for multi curve markets.
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
A dependent partition-valued process for multitask clustering and time evolving network modellingstat.ML
The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree s…
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a general family of latent class problems in which individuals can belong simultaneously to multiple classes and where each class can be exhibited multiple times by an individual. We introduce a combinatorial stochastic process known as the negative binomial process (NBP)…
New process explains asset volatility patterns.
problem Explains statistical relationship between asset volatility and returns.
method Uses multiplicative Langevin process with adjustable coherence time.
result Exactly equivalent to Inverse Gamma distribution for volatility.
MIMONets: Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output Neural Networks Exploiting Computation in Superpositioncs.LG
MIMONets speed up neural network inference by processing multiple inputs in parallel.
problem Reducing computational cost in neural network inference for large datasets.
method Proposes MIMONets, which augment neural network architectures with variable binding mechanisms to handle multiple inputs in superposition.
result Achieves significant speedups (2-4x) with minimal accuracy loss, demonstrating adaptability across different architectures.
Local signature-based expansionsq-fin.MF
Study local expansions of continuous-time processes using Ito signature properties.
problem Analyzing local expansions of continuous-time processes and their moments.
method Using the Ito signature, a basis of iterated integrals, to conduct expansions of the process' characteristic function.
result Explicit coefficients and stochastic representations for asymptotics as time shrinks or diverges.
Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
Crossing penalised CAViaRq-fin.ST
Paper proposes a method to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly.
problem Limited joint estimation of multiple dynamic quantiles.
method Introduces a crossing penalty objective function for joint estimation.
result Validation through Monte Carlo experiments and empirical application on FTSE100 shows effectiveness.
The paper tackles fair classification with multiple sensitive features.
problem Existing fair classification methods often consider a single sensitive feature, but in practice, individuals are defined by multiple sensitive features.
method Characterizes Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features under various fairness measures, proposing in-processing and post-processing algorithms.
result Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features are instance-dependent thresholding rules that rely on a weighted sum of group membership probabilities.
Multiplicative random cascade model naturally reproduces the intermittency or multifractality, which is frequently shown among hierarchical complex systems such as turbulence and financial markets. As described herein, we investigate the validity of a multiplicative hierarchical random cascade model through an empirica…
Cross-Scale Residual Network for Multiple Tasks:Image Super-resolution, Denoising, and Deblockingeess.IV
In general, image restoration involves mapping from low quality images to their high-quality counterparts. Such optimal mapping is usually non-linear and learnable by machine learning. Recently, deep convolutional neural networks have proven promising for such learning processing. It is desirable for an image processin…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient M…
Study optimal reinsurance pricing under model uncertainty for multiple insurers.
problem Optimal reinsurance pricing in the presence of multiple sources of model uncertainty.
method Solves a continuous-time Stackelberg game for general reinsurance contracts, considering entropy penalties and ambiguity in insurers' models.
result Reinsurer prices under a distortion of the barycentre of insurers' models, maximizing expected wealth with an entropy penalty.
This dissertation advances scalable Gaussian processes using iterative methods and pathwise conditioning.
problem The classical Gaussian process formulation is not scalable for large datasets and modern hardware.
method Combining iterative methods and pathwise conditioning to improve scalability.
result Significantly reduced memory requirements and facilitated application to larger datasets.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…