A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A powerful approach for understanding neural population dynamics is to extract low-dimensional trajectories from population recordings using dimensionality reduction methods. Current approaches for dimensionality reduction on neural data are limited to single population recordings, and can not identify dynamics embedde…
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
Bayesian methods improve tracking multiple objects through dynamic dependencies.
problem Tracking multiple objects with time-varying cardinality and unordered measurements.
method Employing Bayesian nonparametric models, specifically dependent Dirichlet and Pitman-Yor processes, for state estimation and Monte Carlo sampling for trajectory learning.
result The proposed methods outperform existing algorithms in estimating the time-varying number of objects and identifying object associations.
Sequences of correlated binary patterns can represent many time-series data including text, movies, and biological signals. These patterns may be described by weighted combinations of a few dominant structures that underpin specific interactions among the binary elements. To extract the dominant correlation structures …
We give a sharp lower bound for the number of geometrically distinct contractible periodic orbits of dynamically convex Reeb flows on prequantizations of symplectic manifolds that are not aspherical. Several consequences of this result are obtained, like a new proof that every bumpy Finsler metric on Sn carries at l…
We present a set of models of the main stylized facts of market price fluctuations. These models comprise dynamical evolution with threshold dynamics and Langevin price equation with multiplicative noise, percolation models to describe the interaction between traders and hierarchical cascade models to unravel the possi…
The Oseledets Multiplicative Ergodic theorem is a basic result with numerous applications throughout dynamical systems. These notes provide an introduction to this theorem, as well as subsequent generalizations. They are based on lectures at summer schools in Brazil, France, and Russia.
The goal of system identification is to learn about underlying physics dynamics behind the time-series data. To model the probabilistic and nonparametric dynamics model, Gaussian process (GP) have been widely used; GP can estimate the uncertainty of prediction and avoid over-fitting. Traditional GPSSMs, however, are ba…
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized valuation measure, can be helpful in defining the key market rates underlying th…
The paper tackles fairness in forecasting and learning linear dynamical systems.
problem Under-representation bias in training data for multiple subgroups.
method Introducing subgroup-fair and instant-fair learning of LDS from multiple trajectories of varying lengths, using hierarchies of convexifications of non-commutative polynomial optimisation problems.
result Empirical results show both the beneficial impact of fairness considerations on statistical performance and encouraging effects of exploiting sparsity on run time.
Real-world dynamical systems often consist of multiple stochastic subsystems that interact with each other. Modeling and forecasting the behavior of such dynamics are generally not easy, due to the inherent hardness in understanding the complicated interactions and evolutions of their constituents. This paper introduce…
Systems of interacting particles or agents have wide applications in many disciplines such as Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economics. These systems are governed by interaction laws, which are often unknown: estimating them from observation data is a fundamental task that can provide meaningful insights and accurate …
We introduce a multiple curve framework that combines tractable dynamics and semi-analytic pricing formulas with positive interest rates and basis spreads. Negatives rates and positive spreads can also be accommodated in this framework. The dynamics of OIS and LIBOR rates are specified following the methodology of the …
Given a n-dimensional lamination endowed with a Riemannian metric, we introduce the notion of a multiplicative cocycle of rank d, where n and d are arbitrary positive integers. The holonomy cocycle of a foliation and its exterior powers as well as its tensor powers provide examples of multiplicative cocycles. Next, we …
Investigates market dynamics with informed traders and high-frequency traders.
problem Trading large orders in a market with multiple high-frequency traders.
method Analyzes a three-period Kyle's model with a normal-speed informed trader and multiple anticipatory high-frequency traders under different inventory pressures.
result Surprising results: improving HFTs' speed or prediction can harm them but benefit the informed trader.
We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of an Agent Based Model and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the Stylized Facts and their Self-Organization. The key elements are fundamentalist …