A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops a method for solving optimal stopping problems with multiple exercise rights.
This paper studies a class of optimal multiple stopping problems driven by Lévy processes. Our model allows for a negative effective discount rate, which arises in a number of financial applications, including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original d…
In the standard models for optimal multiple stopping problems it is assumed that between two exercises there is always a time period of deterministic length , the so called refraction period. This prevents the optimal exercise times from bunching up together on top of the optimal stopping time for the one-exercise c…
A new method for early stopping in neural networks without validation sets.
We determine the sample complexity of pure exploration bandit problems with multiple good answers. We derive a lower bound using a new game equilibrium argument. We show how continuity and convexity properties of single-answer problems ensures that the Track-and-Stop algorithm has asymptotically optimal sample complexi…
A new model minimizes investment risk at multiple time points.
In this paper, we study the dual representation for generalized multiple stopping problems, hence the pricing problem of general multiple exercise options. We derive a dual representation which allows for cashflows which are subject to volume constraints modeled by integer valued adapted processes and refraction period…
We use probabilistic methods to characterise time dependent optimal stopping boundaries in a problem of multiple optimal stopping on a finite time horizon. Motivated by financial applications we consider a payoff of immediate stopping of "put" type and the underlying dynamics follows a geometric Brownian motion. The op…
The paper solves a pricing problem for a multiple reset put option using integral equations.
New algorithms control FDX while achieving more power in online multiple testing.
In iterative supervised learning algorithms it is common to reach a point in the search where no further induction seems to be possible with the available data. If the search is continued beyond this point, the risk of overfitting increases significantly. Following the recent developments in inductive semantic stochast…
This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of probability measure which removes the drift. The optimal impulse controls can be ex…
This paper improves neural network predictions with early stopping using conformal calibration.
Early stopping helps prevent overfitting to noisy labels in neural networks.
New method finds optimal training stop point with noisy labeled data.
We consider the optimal double stopping time problem defined for each stopping time by $v(S)=\esssup\{E[ψ(τ_1, τ_2) | \F_S], τ_1, τ_2 \geq S \}$. Following the optimal one stopping time problem, we study the existence of optimal stopping times and give a method to compute them. The key point is the construction of …
Optimal best-arm identification with known number of optimal arms.
In this paper we introduce and solve a class of optimal stopping problems of recursive type. In particular, the stopping payoff depends directly on the value function of the problem itself. In a multi-dimensional Markovian setting we show that the problem is well posed, in the sense that the value is indeed the unique …
A framework for robust exploration in reinforcement learning under ambiguity.
The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem to the case of finitely-many marginal constraints. Using the classic…
An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an -maxmin nonlinear expectation, renders the stopping problem time-inconsistent. We look for subgame perfect…
We use martingale and stochastic analysis techniques to study a continuous-time optimal stopping problem, in which the decision maker uses a dynamic convex risk measure to evaluate future rewards. We also find a saddle point for an equivalent zero-sum game of control and stopping, between an agent (the "stopper") who c…
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
We study the convergence of Nash equilibria in a game of optimal stopping. If the associated mean field game has a unique equilibrium, any sequence of -player equilibria converges to it as . However, both the finite and infinite player versions of the game often admit multiple equilibria. We show that me…
We study an optimal multiple stopping problem for call-type payoff driven by a spectrally negative Levy process. The stopping times are separated by constant refraction times, and the discount rate can be positive or negative. The computation involves a distribution of the Levy process at a constant horizon and hence t…
The paper optimizes LLM accuracy by stopping early based on consistent answers.
This paper extends stock trading results to include stop-loss orders.
Improved hypothesis testing and change-point detection using diffusion-based methods.
DE-QT detects optimal Q-learning stopping points.
Unified platform for optimal stopping problems in R.
We propose a new approach to solve optimal stopping problems via simulation. Working within the backward dynamic programming/Snell envelope framework, we augment the methodology of Longstaff-Schwartz that focuses on approximating the stopping strategy. Namely, we introduce adaptive generation of the stochastic grids an…
Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
We first study an optimal stopping problem in which a player (an agent) uses a discrete stopping time in order to stop optimally a payoff process whose risk is evaluated by a (non-linear) -expectation. We then consider a non-zero-sum game on discrete stopping times with two agents who aim at minimizing their respect…
The paper examines bounds for stop-loss payoffs using transformed random variables.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
Early stopping of iterative algorithms is a widely-used form of regularization in statistics, commonly used in conjunction with boosting and related gradient-type algorithms. Although consistency results have been established in some settings, such estimators are less well-understood than their analogues based on penal…
Deep Q-Learning models optimal exercise strategies for option-type products.
We develop the first Bayesian Optimization algorithm, BLOSSOM, which selects between multiple alternative acquisition functions and traditional local optimization at each step. This is combined with a novel stopping condition based on expected regret. This pairing allows us to obtain the best characteristics of both lo…
Extends RL to random stopping times, improving optimization.
The paper analyzes and proposes a new stopping criterion for recursive Bayesian classification.
Study robustness of early-stopping GD for linear regression attacks.
Paper proposes a method for early stopping in regression using reproducing kernels.
Early stopping is a widely used technique to prevent poor generalization performance when training an over-expressive model by means of gradient-based optimization. To find a good point to halt the optimizer, a common practice is to split the dataset into a training and a smaller validation set to obtain an ongoing est…
This paper introduces a more efficient method for estimating level sets with a stopping criterion.
Unified stopping rules ensure accurate policies in contextual learning.
A method identifies abrupt changes in functions with fixed confidence under noisy feedback.
Develops a framework for cost-efficient Bayesian optimization with constraints.
We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional that renders the problem time-inconsistent. We study stopping decisions of naive agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves…