Study financial bubbles in a model with multiple probability measures.
problem Understanding financial bubbles in markets with multiple probability measures.
method Introduced robust bubble and fundamental value concepts, investigated no dominance under uncertainty.
result Provided concrete examples of the introduced concepts.
Estimating IPM is as hard as estimating under IPM, both requiring similar optimal rates.
problem Estimating Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs) between probability measures.
method Study of minimax optimal rates for IPM estimation and under IPM estimation based on samples.
result Minimax optimal rates for estimating IPM and estimating under IPM are multiplicatively equivalent.
Study shows optimal rates for estimating Wasserstein metric and measures.
problem Minimax optimal estimation of Wasserstein metric between probability measures.
method Analyzes the minimax rates for estimating the Wasserstein-1 metric and probability measures.
result Minimax optimal rates for estimating Wasserstein metric and measures are multiplicatively equivalent.
The paper develops a new formula for financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
problem Financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
method Derives a change of measure formula for recursive conditional expectations in a jump-diffusion setting.
result Generalizes the change of numéraire technique for multiple interest rates and collateralization.
Identifies conditions for multiple invariant probabilities in Markov kernels.
problem Global irreducibility and recurrence do not guarantee uniqueness of invariant probabilities.
method Uses Jordan decomposition of the difference of two invariant probabilities.
result A Markov kernel has more than one invariant probability if and only if it admits a visible absorbing decomposition.
The paper studies PCA of probability measures with varying sample sizes and finds optimal convergence rates.
problem PCA of multiple probability measures with varying sample sizes.
method Double asymptotic regime analysis with convergence rates n−1/2+m−α for empirical covariance and PCA risk. result Optimal convergence rates for empirical covariance and PCA risk in the dense regime are proven.
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …
The paper optimizes sample allocation for multiple distributions using various distance measures.
problem Learning multiple discrete distributions uniformly well in multiple distance metrics.
method Proposes a general optimistic tracking algorithm and derives bounds for four distance measures.
result Unified sample allocation schemes for four distance measures are presented and analyzed.
The paper introduces risk consistency properties for credit ratings.
problem Promoting prudent investment decisions in credit ratings.
method Introducing and studying risk consistency properties in the framework of Choquet rating criteria.
result Characterization of Choquet risk measures and rating criteria satisfying risk consistency properties.
Inference-aware meta-alignment of LLMs reduces computational cost.
problem Aligning LLMs to diverse human preferences is challenging due to conflicting criteria.
method IAMA trains a base model to be aligned to multiple tasks via different inference-time alignment algorithms, using non-linear GRPO for optimization.
result IAMA enables effective alignment of LLMs to multiple criteria with limited computational budget.
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not …
The paper solves a financial mathematics problem using polytopes and probability measures.
problem Maximizing the expectation of functions on probability measures.
method Identifying specific functions and using polytopes to find optimal probability measures.
result The supervertex and subvertex of polytopes maximize or minimize the expected value of certain functions.
Measures consistency of tabular LLM predictions under fine-tuning multiplicity.
problem Conflicting predictions from fine-tuned tabular LLMs.
method Local stability measure in embedding space.
result Probabilistic guarantees on prediction consistency under multiplicity.
New method optimizes multiple points in Bayesian optimization efficiently.
problem Optimizing multiple points in expensive black-box functions.
method Reformulated BO as probability measure optimization, using convex gradient flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on various benchmarks compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Calibration without labels in multiple testing
problem Interpretable error probabilities in large-scale hypothesis testing
method Constructing pseudo-labels from spacings of ordered p-values result Finding that q-value can be severely miscalibrated A new method for comparing image probability measures using convolution operators.
problem Efficiently comparing images using conventional sliced Wasserstein methods.
method Proposed convolution sliced Wasserstein (CSW) methods with stride, dilation, and non-linear activation.
result CSW demonstrates favorable performance over conventional sliced Wasserstein in image comparison and deep generative modeling.
The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem to the case of finitely-many marginal constraints. Using the classic…
Maximizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with multiple annuitants.
problem Optimizing withdrawal success in a pooled annuity fund with homogeneous annuitants.
method Maximizing the probability of completing withdrawals until death over portfolio weight functions.
result Increasing the number of annuitants can significantly increase the maximum probability of withdrawal success.
Paper extends credit portfolio valuation under model uncertainty for multiple default times.
problem Valuation of credit portfolio derivatives under model uncertainty for multiple default times.
method Introduces a sublinear conditional operator for a family of probability measures.
result Generalizes results for single default time to multiple default times.
The paper extends optimal transport for linear separability of sheared distributions in supervised learning.
problem Learning on the space of probability measures using shifts and scalings.
method Embedding probability measures into L2 spaces using optimal transport, then applying regular machine learning techniques. result Sheared distributions can be linearly separated under certain conditions, with bounds on transformations.
The paper tackles fair classification with multiple sensitive features.
problem Existing fair classification methods often consider a single sensitive feature, but in practice, individuals are defined by multiple sensitive features.
method Characterizes Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features under various fairness measures, proposing in-processing and post-processing algorithms.
result Bayes-optimal fair classifiers for multiple sensitive features are instance-dependent thresholding rules that rely on a weighted sum of group membership probabilities.
We present a probabilistic method for linking multiple datafiles. This task is not trivial in the absence of unique identifiers for the individuals recorded. This is a common scenario when linking census data to coverage measurement surveys for census coverage evaluation, and in general when multiple record-systems nee…
Proposes a method to calibrate data for more accurate linear correlation testing.
problem Inaccurate Pearson's correlation coefficient due to sample size and data non-normality.
method Predictive data calibration using machine learning to condition data on expected linear relationship.
result Calibrated Pearson's correlation coefficient yields a calibrated p-value and r estimate for posterior probability interpretation.
Expected centre of mass for random embeddings is constant.
problem Understanding the expected centre of mass for random embeddings.
method Analyzing the Haar measure and Gaussian unitary ensemble on SL(N, C).
result The expectation of the centre of mass is a constant multiple of the identity matrix.
Proposes a new method to improve multiclass probability calibration.
problem Uncalibrated class probabilities in multiclass classifiers leading to over-confidence.
method Dirichlet calibration method applicable to any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions.
result Improved probabilistic predictions across various datasets and classifiers.
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
problem Analyzing financial value of weak information in discrete vs continuous markets.
method Defined minimal probability measure and financial value of weak information, then showed convergence.
result Financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
A new method optimizes slicing directions for SW distances to improve high-dimensional probability measure comparison.
problem Challenging identification of informative slicing directions for SW distances.
method Constrained learning approach to optimize slicing directions, using continuous relaxations and gradient-based primal-dual approach.
result Demonstrated efficacy in learning more informative slicing directions on various high-dimensional data.
Paper extends MLFD to signed measures via bilevel approach.
problem Risk minimization for infinite width neural networks and sparse deconvolution.
method Bilevel reduction to extend MLFD to signed measures, investigating convergence rates.
result Improved convergence rates for bilevel MFLD in low-noise regime and local exponential convergence for single neuron learning.
Proposes RM-CVaR for better portfolio optimization using multiple β-CVaR.
problem Optimizing portfolios with CVaR risk measure and selecting β.
method Regularized Multiple β-CVaR approach.
result Demonstrates superior performance in risk-adjusted returns and maximum drawdown.
Implementing k-NN classification using Gromov--Wasserstein distances
problem Comparing metric measure spaces
method Gromov--Wasserstein and fused Gromov--Wasserstein distances
result Universal consistency of k-NN classifiers TCE measures calibration error with a test-based approach.
problem Measuring calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers.
method TCE uses a novel loss function based on a statistical test.
result TCE offers clear interpretation, consistent scale, and enhanced visual representation.
Confidence intervals improve evaluation of binary prediction rules in data mining.
problem Uncertainty in performance measures estimation from finite datasets.
method Asymptotic normal approximations for confidence intervals, with a blurring correction.
result Improved finite sample coverage probabilities and general performance measures inference.
The study corrects measurement error in evaluating health effects of multiple pollutants.
problem Bias in estimating health effects of air pollution constituents due to mismeasurement.
method Used a linear regression calibration model and extended DML approach to correct for measurement error.
result Identified two PM2.5 constituents (Br and Mn) that show a negative causal effect on cognitive function after correction.
Algorithm finds function contours using multiple approximations.
problem Locating contours of expensive-to-evaluate functions.
method Uses multiple biased and noisy approximations to locate contours efficiently by maximizing entropy reduction.
result Maximizes reduction of contour entropy per unit cost.
Transformers recall from long distributions with statistical guarantees.
problem Designing Transformers that can recall from arbitrarily long, distributional contexts.
method Recast associative memory as probability measures, decomposing the task into recall and prediction.
result A shallow measure-theoretic Transformer learns the recall-and-predict map under spectral assumptions.
Bayesian approach to robust risk measures under model uncertainty.
problem Representing robust risk measures as a single probability measure.
method Introducing two types of risk measures and analyzing their relation to robust risk measures.
result Robust risk measures can be represented by a mixture probability measure, a Bayesian approach.
Paper uses optimal transport for low-dimensional representation of leukemia flow cytometry data.
problem Detecting minimal residual disease in leukemia patients using flow cytometry data.
method Optimal transport for dimensionality reduction and visualization of multi-patient flow cytometry datasets.
result OT-based approach provides a more informative two-dimensional representation of leukemia MRD.
A smooth diffeomorphism is said to be distributionally uniquely ergodic (DUE for short) when it is uniquely ergodic and its unique invariant probability measure is the only invariant distribution (up to multiplication by a constant). Ergodic translations on tori are classical examples of DUE diffeomorphisms. In this ar…
DeepDA uses LSTM to track multiple targets in clutter.
problem NP-hard combinatorial optimization in multi-target tracking with clutter.
method LSTM-based deep learning for data association.
result Significant performance on association ratio, target ID switching, and time-consuming tracking.
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
Paper introduces a new uncertainty measure for misclassification detection.
problem Effective detection of unreliable model predictions in machine learning.
method Data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer based on soft-predictions.
result Demonstrates improved misclassification detection over state-of-the-art methods.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
A new associative memory uses Sinkhorn divergence for efficient pattern retrieval.
problem Efficiently retrieving patterns from large datasets of weighted point clouds.
method Derived retrieval dynamics as a SHK gradient flow, discretized for a deterministic algorithm.
result Proved basin invariance, geometric convergence, and robust recovery from perturbations.
We consider the SL(2,R) action on moduli spaces of quadratic differentials. If μ is an SL(2,R)-invariant probability measure, crucial information about the associated representation on L2(μ) (and in particular, fine asymptotics for decay of correlations of the diagonal action, the Teichmüller flow) is encoded …
The paper explores geometry of probability measures and barycenter maps.
problem Understanding the space of probability measures and their barycenter.
method Information geometry, Fisher metric, dualistic structures, divergences, geodesics.
result Recent developments in the geometry of probability measures and barycenter.
The framework of this paper is that of risk measuring under uncertainty, which is when no reference probability measure is given. To every regular convex risk measure on Cb(Ω), we associate a unique equivalence class of probability measures on Borel sets, characterizing the riskless non positive elements of $…
Extends monetary value measures to probability spaces.
problem No specific problem stated; generalization of monetary value measures.
method Extends category from hi to Prob.
result Generalized monetary value measures to probability spaces.
New algorithms improve computation of optimal transport and Wasserstein barycenter.
problem Computing optimal transport and Wasserstein barycenter for multiple probability distributions.
method Introduced APDRCD and APDGCD algorithms for efficient computation, demonstrating better performance than existing methods.
result New algorithms match or exceed the best known complexities for OT problems and improve practical performance.