Modeling student behaviors and multiple predictions for early intervention.
problem Predicting student outcomes and interactions among multiple tasks.
method Proposes a variant of LSTM and soft-attention mechanism for heterogeneous behaviors, and co-attention mechanism for task interactions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in predicting student outcomes and interactions.
MPP trains a transformer to predict multiple physical systems, improving accuracy across various tasks.
problem Training models for specific physical systems is inefficient and requires fine-tuning.
method MPP trains a shared transformer on multiple heterogeneous physical systems, projecting fields into a shared embedding space.
result A single MPP-pretrained transformer outperforms task-specific models on all pretraining sub-tasks and downstream tasks.
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
problem Inaccurate probabilistic load predictions due to uncertainties and dynamic changes.
method Online multi-task learning for probabilistic load forecasting.
result Significantly enhances load forecasting accuracy across various scenarios.
Proposes handling ambiguity in sequential data predictions.
problem Handling uncertainty in sequential data predictions.
method Extension of MHP model to recurrent architectures, introducing a novel metric.
result Achieved promising results on various sequential data tasks.
New unsupervised transfer learning method for spatiotemporal tasks.
problem Transfer knowledge from unsupervised models to new predictive tasks.
method Differentiable framework with Transferable Memory Unit (TMU).
result Significant improvements on spatiotemporal prediction benchmarks.
New measures quantify uncertainty in survival models for maintenance tasks.
problem Uncertainty in survival models for maintenance tasks.
method Formal measures of ambiguity, discrepancy, and obscurity introduced.
result Multiple accurate survival models may yield conflicting risk estimates.
Sporting events are extremely complex and require a multitude of metrics to accurate describe the event. When making multiple predictions, one should make them from a single source to keep consistency across the predictions. We present a multi-task learning method of generating multiple predictions for analysis via a s…
Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) is used to replicate the signal combination process that trading rules embody when they aggregate multiple sources of financial information when predicting an asset's price movements. A set of financially motivated kernels is constructed for the EURUSD currency pair and is used to predict…
Study shows cross-domain X-ray prediction performance discrepancies and label shifts.
problem Quantifying generalization limits across different X-ray datasets.
method Large-scale study on multiple X-ray datasets, focusing on performance and label shifts.
result Interesting discrepancies found between model performance and agreement, and concept similarity across tasks.
In the era of big data, a large amount of noisy and incomplete data can be collected from multiple sources for prediction tasks. Combining multiple models or data sources helps to counteract the effects of low data quality and the bias of any single model or data source, and thus can improve the robustness and the perf…
Inferring predictive maps between multiple input and multiple output variables or tasks has innumerable applications in data science. Multi-task learning attempts to learn the maps to several output tasks simultaneously with information sharing between them. We propose a novel multi-task learning framework for sparse l…
Framework uses dropout to efficiently explore Rashomon set for multiplicity estimation.
problem Efficiently measuring and mitigating conflicting model outputs in classification tasks.
method Dropout-based exploration of Rashomon set for multiplicity estimation.
result Framework outperforms baselines in multiplicity metric estimation with significant runtime speedup.
PAS improves estimation of multiple means using ML predictions and shrinkage.
problem Improving statistical estimates with limited gold-standard data and noisy ML predictions.
method Prediction-Powered Adaptive Shrinkage (PAS) that combines PPI with empirical Bayes shrinkage.
result PAS adapts to the reliability of ML predictions and outperforms traditional methods in large-scale applications.
aMCL uses annealing to improve hypothesis diversity in ambiguous tasks.
problem Limitations of Winner-takes-all in predicting plausible hypotheses.
method Combines simulated annealing with Multiple Choice Learning (MCL).
result Enhanced exploration of hypothesis space during training.
MTNPs jointly model multiple correlated tasks from various sources.
problem Naive NPs can only model a single stochastic process and infer tasks independently.
method MTNPs are a hierarchical extension of NPs that jointly infer tasks from multiple stochastic processes, considering inter-task correlation and handling incomplete data.
result MTNPs successfully model multiple tasks jointly, discovering and exploiting their correlations in various real-world data.
Measures consistency of tabular LLM predictions under fine-tuning multiplicity.
problem Conflicting predictions from fine-tuned tabular LLMs.
method Local stability measure in embedding space.
result Probabilistic guarantees on prediction consistency under multiplicity.
CAOS aggregates multiple one-shot predictors for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in one-shot prediction.
method CAOS, a conformal framework that aggregates multiple one-shot predictors and uses a leave-one-out calibration scheme.
result CAOS produces smaller prediction sets with reliable coverage compared to split conformal baselines.
Paper defines and solves a problem in representation learning to ensure fairness with high confidence.
problem Learning fair representations with high confidence guarantees for all downstream tasks.
method Formally defines the problem, introduces FRG framework, proves high probability fairness, and demonstrates effectiveness empirically.
result FRG framework provides high-confidence guarantees for limiting unfairness across all downstream models and tasks.
We propose a novel graph-driven generative model, that unifies multiple heterogeneous learning tasks into the same framework. The proposed model is based on the fact that heterogeneous learning tasks, which correspond to different generative processes, often rely on data with a shared graph structure. Accordingly, our …
Wide Boosting improves GB's performance on multivariate output tasks.
problem Lack of flexibility in fitting probabilistic multi-dimensional outputs.
method Inserts matrix multiplication between GB output and loss function.
result Wide Boosting outperforms Gradient Boosting on multivariate output tasks.
This paper improves prediction accuracy for multi-input classification tasks using p-value aggregation.
problem Generating accurate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage for multi-input classification tasks.
method Integrates p-values from each observation to reduce the size of the predicted label set while maintaining class-conditional coverage.
result The method reduces the size of the predicted label set while preserving the required coverage guarantee.
Coordination recognition and subtle pattern prediction of future trajectories play a significant role when modeling interactive behaviors of multiple agents. Due to the essential property of uncertainty in the future evolution, deterministic predictors are not sufficiently safe and robust. In order to tackle the task o…
Single model predicts multiple subnetworks for robustness.
problem Efficiently ensemble neural networks for robustness and uncertainty.
method Multi-input multi-output (MIMO) configuration to train independent subnetworks.
result Significant improvement in negative log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration error.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
This work improves multi-task regression performance using approximations of full-conformal prediction.
problem Jointly solve multiple regression tasks with better performance than individual tasks.
method Design an approximating prediction region in RKHS for full-conformal multi-task regression.
result The approximating prediction region improves upon split-conformal prediction on synthetic data.
DANCE improves prediction set efficiency for deep learning models.
problem Inefficient, overly conservative prediction sets for pre-trained models.
method DANCE combines adaptive kernel regression and nearest-neighbor approach.
result DANCE produces more efficient and robust prediction sets.
Novel model improves clinical risk prediction by transferring knowledge between tasks over time.
problem Negative transfer in multi-task learning for clinical risk prediction.
method Temporal Probabilistic Asymmetric Multi-Task Learning (TPAMTL).
result Significantly outperforms various deep learning models for time-series prediction.
We propose an experimental comparison between Deep Echo State Networks (DeepESNs) and gated Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) on multivariate time-series prediction tasks. In particular, we compare reservoir and fully-trained RNNs able to represent signals featured by multiple time-scales dynamics. The analysis is perfo…
Mixture of multi-task GPs for clustering and prediction of functional data.
problem Handling multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for functional data.
method A mixture of multi-task Gaussian processes with a variational EM algorithm for hyper-parameter optimization.
result Enhanced predictive performance for group-structured data.
Motivation: HIV is difficult to treat because its virus mutates at a high rate and mutated viruses easily develop resistance to existing drugs. If the relationships between mutations and drug resistances can be determined from historical data, patients can be provided personalized treatment according to their own mutat…
Proposes a deep tree-ensemble model for multi-output prediction.
problem Lack of efficient solutions for multi-output prediction.
method Integrates tree-embeddings into deep tree-ensembles for structured output prediction.
result Superior performance in multi-label classification and multi-target regression tasks.
Paper proposes a method to identify negative transfers in multitask learning using surrogate models.
problem Identifying subsets of source tasks that improve target task performance in multitask learning.
method Surrogate modeling to precompute multitask learning performances and approximate them with a linear regression model.
result The approach predicts negative transfers from multiple source tasks to target tasks more accurately than existing methods.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
AM-PPI uses multiple predictors to reduce label cost in healthcare AI.
problem Reduces label cost in post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI.
method Combines model predictions with a small labeled sample, routing each instance to a cost-appropriate subset of predictors.
result Produces narrower confidence intervals than single-predictor methods.
Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time inter…
The paper proposes a method to integrate prior information into penalized regression.
problem Improving predictive performance in high-dimensional tasks with prior information.
method Integrating multiple sources of prior information into penalized regression.
result The method improves predictive performance, as shown by simulations and applications.
New algorithms improve privacy-preserving data release using external predictions.
problem Privacy-preserving data release with improved utility using external information.
method Learning-augmented algorithms for multiple quantile release.
result Error guarantees scale with prediction quality, almost recovering state-of-the-art guarantees.
\textit{Multiple Instance Learning} (MIL) is concerned with learning from bags of instances, where only bag labels are given and instance labels are unknown. Existent approaches in this field were mainly designed for the bag-level label prediction (predict labels for bags) but not the instance-level (predict labels for…
Learning by integrating multiple heterogeneous data sources is a common requirement in many tasks. Collective Matrix Factorization (CMF) is a technique to learn shared latent representations from arbitrary collections of matrices. It can be used to simultaneously complete one or more matrices, for predicting the unknow…
HapNet predicts marketing campaign effects using a hierarchical structure.
problem Complex and challenging effect prediction for marketing campaigns.
method Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet).
result HapNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both synthetic and real data.
Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.
problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.
New findings on representation learning beyond linear functions.
problem Achieving diversity in representation learning beyond linear prediction functions.
method Analysis of eluder dimension and empirical risks.
result Diversity holds even with nonlinear prediction functions and multiple layers in neural networks.
Multi-task learning (MTL) improves prediction performance in different contexts by learning models jointly on multiple different, but related tasks. Network data, which are a priori data with a rich relational structure, provide an important context for applying MTL. In particular, the explicit relational structure imp…
New method uses Multiple Choice Learning for speech separation.
problem Ambiguous task of assigning model predictions to ground truth signals.
method Uses Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) instead of Permutation Invariant Training (PIT).
result MCL matches PIT performance but is computationally advantageous.
This paper benchmarks uncertainty disentanglement across various tasks.
problem Disentangling multiple sources of uncertainty for specialized tasks.
method Reimplemented and evaluated a wide range of uncertainty estimators.
result No existing approach provides disentangled uncertainty estimators in practice.
FakeEdge tackles dataset shift in link prediction tasks.
problem Dataset shift between training and testing sets in link prediction.
method Model-agnostic technique to mitigate graph topological gap.
result Extensive experiments show FakeEdge's superiority on multiple datasets.
XIMP improves molecular property prediction by integrating multiple graph representations.
problem Graph neural networks struggle in data-scarce regimes and fail to surpass traditional methods.
method Cross-graph inter-message passing with multiple graph abstractions.
result XIMP outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across diverse molecular property tasks.
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.