In this paper, we construct an asymptotically hyperbolic metric with scalar curvature -6 on unit ball , which contains multiple horizons.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,042 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “multiple horizons”
Boundary-induced apparent risk aversion in non-ergodic growth models.
problem Risk aversion in multiplicative growth systems with absorbing boundaries.
method Exact lattice propagation and analysis of binary multiplicative processes.
result Optimal exposure is compressed near absorbing boundaries, mimicking risk aversion.
We present a proof of the Riemannian Penrose inequality with charge , where is the area of the outermost apparent horizon with possibly multiple connected components, is the total ADM mass, and the total charge of a strongly asymptotically flat initial data set for the Einste…
Growth-Optimal Strategies with Quadratic Friction Over Finite-Time Investment Horizonscond-mat.stat-mech
We investigate the growth optimal strategy over a finite time horizon for a stock and bond portfolio in an analytically solvable multiplicative Markovian market model. We show that the optimal strategy consists in holding the amount of capital invested in stocks within an interval around an ideal optimal investment. Th…
This work bridges hyperbolic discounting in RL with exponential discounting.
problem Hyperbolic discounting in reinforcement learning models.
method Implemented a hyperbolic discounting RL agent and demonstrated its effectiveness.
result Hyperbolic discounting can be approximated using familiar RL techniques.
In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic, agent-based market model developed in Gusev et al. (2015). This heterogeneous frame…
Develops a formalism for studying general horizons and derives a near-horizon equation.
problem Analyzes the geometry of general horizons in spacetime.
method Introduces a formalism based on encoding the zeroth and first transverse derivatives of the deformation tensor on null hypersurfaces.
result Derives a generalized near-horizon equation that holds on any horizon.
ElasTST improves time-series forecasting across varying horizons.
problem Robust forecasting across different time horizons in varied industrial sectors.
method Elastic Time-Series Transformer (ElasTST) with non-autoregressive design, rotary position embedding, and multi-scale patching.
result ElasTST provides robust forecasts across varying horizons without retraining.
WSqD extends learning rate schedules for large model training without fixed horizons.
problem Fixed learning rate schedules limit training horizon extension.
method WSqD replaces constant stable phase with a shifted inverse-square-root base, retaining linear cooldown.
result WSqD achieves minimax-optimal convergence rate and horizon-independence.
We show that a stationary asymptotically flat electro-vacuum solution of Einstein's equations that is everywhere locally "almost isometric" to a Kerr-Newman solution cannot admit more than one event horizon. Axial symmetry is not assumed. In particular this implies that the assumption of a single event horizon in Alexa…
Careful tuning of the learning rate, or even schedules thereof, can be crucial to effective neural net training. There has been much recent interest in gradient-based meta-optimization, where one tunes hyperparameters, or even learns an optimizer, in order to minimize the expected loss when the training procedure is un…
ModelRadar evaluates forecasting models across multiple aspects.
problem Evaluating forecasting models using single scores hides relevant performance variations.
method ModelRadar, a framework for aspect-based evaluation of univariate time series forecasting models.
result NHITS performs best overall but its superiority varies with forecasting conditions.
Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead…
Optimizes investment under uncertain time horizons with non-concave utility.
problem Optimizing investment decisions with non-concave utility and uncertain time horizons.
method Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality, suggested recursive procedure for non-concave utility.
result Optimal investment strategies under uncertain time horizons exhibit multimodal distribution, indicating flexibility in switching between local maximizers.
New method estimates state-action stationary distribution for better off-policy policy evaluation.
problem Accurately estimating state-action stationary distribution for off-policy policy evaluation.
method Estimated Mixture Policy (EMP) for state and state-action stationary distribution corrections.
result Empirical validation shows improved accuracy over state-of-the-art methods.
This paper challenges the conventional wisdom of trend-following by showing that the medium-term horizon adds little value once short- and long-term components are included.
problem The conventional wisdom that more horizons improve diversification and performance is challenged.
method A Bayesian optimization framework reallocates exposure dynamically across horizons, optimizing horizon-level weights at the asset level and applying sparsity and turnover control for dynamic allocation across assets.
result The medium-term horizon contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included.
Deep learning models forecast stock market orders over multiple time frames.
problem Forecasting stock market orders over varying time frames.
method Encoder-decoder models with sequence-to-sequence and Attention mechanisms, leveraging Intelligent Processing Units (IPUs) for faster training.
result Multi-horizon forecasting outperforms single-horizon models, especially for long prediction periods.
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify these quantities as…
Extends RL to random stopping times, improving optimization.
problem Real-world applications with random stopping times.
method Extended RL framework to random stopping times, derived new formulas.
result Improves optimization convergence with new formulas.
We present a proof of the Riemannian Penrose inequality with charge in the context of asymptotically flat initial data sets for the Einstein-Maxwell equations, having possibly multiple black holes with no charged matter outside the horizon, and satisfying the relevant dominant energy condition. The proof is based on a …
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
problem Risk measures and optimal reserve allocation across multiple lines of business.
method Formalizes expected maximum deficit, introduces implicitly bounded risk measures, and proposes capital allocation approaches.
result Theoretical results on static and dynamic coherence, convexity, and exact optimizations of aggregate minimum reserves.
Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) is used to replicate the signal combination process that trading rules embody when they aggregate multiple sources of financial information when predicting an asset's price movements. A set of financially motivated kernels is constructed for the EURUSD currency pair and is used to predict…
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
C-Learning estimates reachability over time to solve multi-goal tasks.
problem Multi-goal reaching challenges in reinforcement learning.
method Cumulative accessibility functions and recurrence relations.
result Optimal cumulative accessibility functions are monotonic in horizon.
In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize …
This paper is concerned with the axiomatic foundation and explicit construction of a general class of optimality criteria that can be used for investment problems with multiple time horizons, or when the time horizon is not known in advance. Both the investment criterion and the optimal strategy are characterized by th…
Study on cryptocurrency market correlations at various time scales.
problem Understanding the hierarchical structure of cryptocurrency market dynamics.
method Analysis of MST and TMFG for 25 liquid cryptocurrencies at different time horizons.
result Cryptocurrency market correlations decrease with finer time scales and show a growing hierarchical structure with coarser scales.
Improves financial instrument pricing using neural networks.
problem Financial instrument pricing within Black-Karasinski model.
method Enhances path-integral approximation with neural networks.
result Demonstrates superior outcomes for multiple calibrations.
The paper optimizes portfolios in a financial market with correlated assets using a stochastic volatility model.
problem Optimizing portfolios in a financial market with correlated assets and stochastic volatility.
method Derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, use approximation methods, analyze value function using expansion of utility function, control error with second-order terms, generate close-to-optimal portfolio.
result Close-to-optimal portfolio generated using first-order approximation of utility function with controlled error.
We propose a framework for general probabilistic multi-step time series regression. Specifically, we exploit the expressiveness and temporal nature of Sequence-to-Sequence Neural Networks (e.g. recurrent and convolutional structures), the nonparametric nature of Quantile Regression and the efficiency of Direct Multi-Ho…
FLARe model forecasts Alzheimer's progression using learned latent representations.
problem Forecasting Alzheimer's disease progression at the patient level.
method Generates a sequence of latent representations from longitudinal data across multiple modalities, incorporating time horizon.
result Outperforms baseline in forecasting accuracy and F1 score, robustly handling missing visits.
Neural Lévy model improves risk and density forecasting for financial returns.
problem Financial returns exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering, and jumps.
method Proposes a neural Lévy jump-diffusion framework that learns conditional drift, diffusion, jump intensity, and size distribution.
result Demonstrates improved calibration, sharper tail control, and risk reduction.
ESN models predict intraday stock returns efficiently.
problem Intraday stock return prediction using machine learning.
method Echo State Network (ESN) models with random parameters.
result ESN models achieve strong forecasting performance efficiently.
Global optimization in Bayesian inference yields little additional benefit.
problem Improving psychometric parameter estimation using global optimization strategies.
method Experimental simulations comparing myopic and global strategies in multiple models.
result Global optimization strategies provide negligible additional utility improvement beyond the immediate next steps.
Study predicts cryptocurrency trends using LSTM model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price trends.
method Combination of window-sliding and prediction range method with LSTM model.
result Established model for cryptocurrency price trend prediction.
Study extends binary omniprediction to multiclass setting with improved sample complexity.
problem Suboptimality bounds for each loss function against infinite comparator family in multiclass prediction.
method Design of a framework for solving Blackwell approachability problems with coupled actions.
result Sample complexity of for -omniprediction in a -class problem.
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
problem Empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP).
method Modeling risk premium using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process embedded in stochastic differential equation for exchange rate.
result The model shows strong predictive performance at short and long horizons, but underperforms at intermediate horizons.
New model predicts multiple future trends from merchant transactions.
problem Predicting multiple future trends from merchant transaction history.
method Convolutional neural networks and encoder-decoder structure.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in predicting multiple future trends.
Multifractal returns and Hierarchical Portfolio Theorycond-mat.stat-mech
We extend and test empirically the multifractal model of asset returns based on a multiplicative cascade of volatilities from large to small time scales. The multifractal description of asset fluctuations is generalized into a multivariate framework to account simultaneously for correlations across times scales and bet…
Optimising cryptocurrency portfolios through stable clustering of price correlation networksphysics.pop-ph
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by clustering price correlations and improving risk-return profiles.
problem Volatility and regulatory uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets make portfolio construction challenging.
method The paper combines network analysis, price forecasting, and portfolio theory to identify stable groups of correlated cryptocurrencies.
result Predictive consensus-clustering portfolios maintain positive and stable performance up to a 14-day horizon, with favourable gain-loss asymmetry and tighter tail-risk control.
Study of harmonic maps with extreme Kerr-like singularities.
problem Analyzing harmonic maps with specific singularities.
method Asymptotic analysis of harmonic maps from 3D Euclidean space to hyperbolic plane.
result Existence and classification of tangent harmonic maps at extreme black hole horizons.
Bitcoin price prediction models fail to outperform a simple 'today's price' baseline, especially at longer horizons.
problem Lack of robust models that consistently outperform a naive price predictor at various horizons.
method Surveyed peer-reviewed papers, categorized by evaluation methodology, contrasted with social media discourse, and proposed methodological standards.
result No peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes at short-to-medium horizons.
This work tackles long-term visual planning by goal-conditioned hierarchical predictors.
problem Current learning approaches fail on long-horizon tasks due to lack of goal information and coarse-to-fine planning.
method Formulate goal-conditioned predictors (GCPs) and hierarchical models to predict trajectories between observations.
result GCPs enable effective long-term planning with much longer horizons than before.
ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.
problem Predicting stock market movements using news headlines.
method Used a two-stage prompt approach with a dataset of Bloomberg market summaries from 2010 to 2023.
result ChatGPT's sentiment scores correlate positively with future equity market returns over short to medium terms, with a negative correlation over longer horizons.
New algorithms detect and react to multiple change points in online learning.
problem Learning under multiple change points in environments with unknown and frequent shifts.
method Proposed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC) algorithms that balance detection of significant shifts.
result Properly tuned ATC algorithms achieve nearly minimax-optimal performance.
Proves rigidity of extremal Kerr-Newman horizons.
problem Classifying near-horizon geometries of extremal Kerr-Newman horizons.
method Proves intrinsic geometry constraints leading to rigidity.
result Proves extremal Kerr-Newman horizons are unique.
In this paper, we consider the distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, where a global arm set can be accessed by multiple players independently. The players are allowed to exchange their history of observations with each other at specific points in time. We study the relationship between regret and communica…
This paper develops a method to derive optimal portfolios and risk premia explicitly in a general diffusion model for an investor with power utility and a long horizon. The market has several risky assets and is potentially incomplete. Investment opportunities are driven by, and partially correlated with, state variabl…