A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified method for learning from selectively labeled data.
The paper addresses the difficulty of decision makers trusting AI-assisted predictions and proposes a method to improve confidence values.
Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.
In many machine learning applications, there are multiple decision-makers involved, both automated and human. The interaction between these agents often goes unaddressed in algorithmic development. In this work, we explore a simple version of this interaction with a two-stage framework containing an automated model and…
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
PBO framework optimizes latent preferences over multiple objectives.
Study resource allocation strategies in sequential decisions with unknown rewards.
In this paper, we demonstrate how to learn the objective function of a decision-maker while only observing the problem input data and the decision-maker's corresponding decisions over multiple rounds. We present exact algorithms for this online version of inverse optimization which converge at a rate of $ \mathcal{O}(1…
Maximising the detection of intrusions is a fundamental and often critical aim of perimeter surveillance. Commonly, this requires a decision-maker to optimally allocate multiple searchers to segments of the perimeter. We consider a scenario where the decision-maker may sequentially update the searchers' allocation, lea…
Given a set of human's decisions that are observed, inverse optimization has been developed and utilized to infer the underlying decision making problem. The majority of existing studies assumes that the decision making problem is with a single objective function, and attributes data divergence to noises, errors or bou…
Paper presents algorithm for optimal job selection with dynamic scoring.
Information-theoretic bounded rationality describes utility-optimizing decision-makers whose limited information-processing capabilities are formalized by information constraints. One of the consequences of bounded rationality is that resource-limited decision-makers can join together to solve decision-making problems …
We investigate how the choice of decision makers can be varied under the presence of risk and uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the approach we have previously applied to individual decision makers, which we now generalize to the case of decision makers that are members of a society. The approach employs the mathem…
In this paper we propose a method for a quantitative estimation of the decision maker's knowledge in the context of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in cases, where the judgment matrix is inconsistent. We show that the matrix of deviation from the transitivity condition corresponds to the rate matrix for transactio…
We evaluate the folk wisdom that algorithmic decision rules trained on data produced by biased human decision-makers necessarily reflect this bias. We consider a setting where training labels are only generated if a biased decision-maker takes a particular action, and so "biased" training data arise due to discriminato…
We consider an adversarial online learning setting where a decision maker can choose an action in every stage of the game. In addition to observing the reward of the chosen action, the decision maker gets side observations on the reward he would have obtained had he chosen some of the other actions. The observation str…
New approach calibrates predictions for better decision-making.
Auditing fairness of decision-makers is now in high demand. To respond to this social demand, several fairness auditing tools have been developed. The focus of this study is to raise an awareness of the risk of malicious decision-makers who fake fairness by abusing the auditing tools and thereby deceiving the social co…
We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and …
Develops optimal uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers.
Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to erosion from storm waves. Such coastal erosion is a concern, since the majority of …
Machine learning has recently been widely adopted to address the managerial decision making problems, in which the decision maker needs to be able to interpret the contributions of individual attributes in an explicit form. However, there is a trade-off between performance and interpretability. Full complexity models a…
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have proven to be successful in many classification tasks, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy alone is not enough for high-stakes decision making. Decision makers want to know the likelihood that a specific GNN prediction is correct. For …
Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment models in a selection-on-observables framework by modifying the Causal Fore…
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
Paper uses AI to improve medical diagnosis accuracy.
A model for human-machine decision-making with private info and opacity.
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
Paper tackles non-monotonic resource utilization in sequential decision-making.
Intersectional constraints improve selection outcomes by reducing inequality.
Optimal strategy identified for minimizing regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
Proposes an online model for LLM cascading with adaptive API selection.
We address online linear optimization problems when the possible actions of the decision maker are represented by binary vectors. The regret of the decision maker is the difference between her realized loss and the best loss she would have achieved by picking, in hindsight, the best possible action. Our goal is to unde…
Proposes a new model for context-dependent decision-making.
The maximum entropy principle can be used to assign utility values when only partial information is available about the decision maker's preferences. In order to obtain such utility values it is necessary to establish an analogy between probability and utility through the notion of a utility density function. According…
Bayesian method helps decision-makers find preferred solutions in multi-objective optimization.
Delta Variances efficiently estimate epistemic uncertainty in neural networks.
New predictive bandit model with noise for better decision making.
We discuss multi-task online learning when a decision maker has to deal simultaneously with M tasks. The tasks are related, which is modeled by imposing that the M-tuple of actions taken by the decision maker needs to satisfy certain constraints. We give natural examples of such restrictions and then discuss a general …
The goal of meta-learning is to train a model on a variety of learning tasks, such that it can adapt to new problems within only a few iterations. Here we propose a principled information-theoretic model that optimally partitions the underlying problem space such that specialized expert decision-makers solve the result…
Motivated by real-world machine learning applications, we consider a statistical classification task in a sequential setting where test samples arrive sequentially. In addition, the generating distributions are unknown and only a set of empirically sampled sequences are available to a decision maker. The decision maker…
Bayesian optimization learns DM preferences for multi-outcome experiments.
This paper considers online convex optimization (OCO) with stochastic constraints, which generalizes Zinkevich's OCO over a known simple fixed set by introducing multiple stochastic functional constraints that are i.i.d. generated at each round and are disclosed to the decision maker only after the decision is made. Th…
Paper tackles dynamic pricing in a geometrically decaying environment, achieving better occupancy with lower rates.
Diffusion approximations optimize sequential experimentation for uncertain parameters.
A new method for optimizing black-box problems with constraints.
Algorithm allocates perishable resources online to minimize envy and inefficiency.
Conformal prediction helps quantify uncertainty but its use by humans is unclear.