Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
This paper synthesizes and analyzes some important current and recent contributions to the theory of the firm under uncertainty. In so doing, it examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under a single source and multiple sources of uncertainty.
Optimal statistical test for identifying edges in Gaussian graphical models.
problem Identifying the correct edges in Gaussian graphical models from a sample.
method Developed a Neyman-type multiple decision procedure to minimize the combined error rates of Type I and Type II errors.
result The developed procedure is optimal, minimizing the linear combination of Type I and Type II error rates.
Proposes model-based approach for MI learning using point process theory.
problem Lack of statistical point pattern models in MI learning.
method Develops framework using point process theory for principled extensions of MI learning tasks.
result Tractable point pattern models and solutions for MI learning and decision making.
Paper proposes a new method to compare classifiers across multiple datasets.
problem Comparing classifiers over multiple datasets with multiple criteria.
method Adopting decision theory, the paper introduces generalized stochastic dominance for ranking classifiers.
result Generalized stochastic dominance can be used to rank classifiers and statistically tested.
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
Paper identifies a shared toolkit of strategies for risk management across fields.
problem Uncertainty and risk management in various fields.
method Systematic identification and categorization of 110 strategies.
result RDOT: Risk-reducing Design and Operations Toolkit provides versatile responses to uncertainty.
Boosting meta-trees improve decision tree performance.
problem Overfitting in decision trees.
method Boosting approach to construct multiple meta-trees.
result Ensembles of meta-trees prevent overfitting.
Study on multi-agent decision making complexity, showing sample efficiency gaps.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in multi-agent decision making.
method General framework for interactive decision making, focusing on equilibrium computation.
result No 'reasonable' complexity measure can close gaps between single and multiple agents.
Tutorials on preference learning with Gaussian Processes.
problem Understanding individual preferences and choices for efficient and personalized applications.
method Presentation of a comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes, incorporating rationality principles.
result Construction of preference learning models that encompass various utility models and scenarios.
A theory for interpreting black-box models in medical diagnostics.
problem Lack of computational formulation for interpreting black-box models in medical diagnostics.
method Defining interpretation as a finite communication between a known model and a black-box model, deriving an algorithm for diagnostic interpretability.
result Demonstrated the feasibility of interpreting black-box models in synthetic supervised classification scenarios.
Novel framework for reliable long-tailed classification.
problem Challenges of long-tailed imbalance and specific error risks.
method Bayesian Decision Theory and variational optimization.
result Demonstrates reliability and flexibility in diverse tasks.
The paper tackles robust policy learning in MDPs using statistical methods.
problem Offline data-driven sequential decision making in MDPs.
method Evaluates policies using average rewards centered at policy-induced stationary distributions. Developed a statistically efficient method for estimating robust optimal policies.
result Established a rate-optimal regret bound up to a logarithmic factor.
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
Neural networks combining multiple data sources can reverse preferences, affecting decision reliability.
problem Preference reversals in neural networks under pooled data.
method Formalized through Case-Based Decision Theory, analyzed Gram geometry, introduced regularization, and developed auditing methods.
result Pooled refitting can reverse shared preferences, and conditions for preserving preferences are derived.
Unified method for learning from selectively labeled data.
problem Classification with selectively labeled data from multiple decision-makers.
method Unified cost-sensitive learning (UCL) approach.
result Unified method for robust classification in selective labeling.
New method combines multiple data sources for optimal decision-making with limited outcomes.
problem Optimal decision-making with limited outcome data from multiple heterogeneous sources.
method Calibrated optimal decision-making method leveraging common intermediate outcomes.
result Proposed estimator of conditional mean outcome is asymptotically normal and more efficient.
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.
problem Estimating effects of many related treatments in observational data.
method Customized ridge regression to reduce noise and MSE.
result Significantly reduces MSE for individual sub-treatments while allowing reconstruction of aggregated treatment effects.
Co-training improves sequential decision-making policies from multiple views.
problem Learning policies in settings with multiple state-action representations.
method Inspired by co-training for classification, we present a co-training framework for sequential decision making.
result Our framework improves upon learning from a single view alone.
Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.
Fairness in AI decisions for users with varying performance.
problem Ensuring fairness in AI decisions for users with different performance levels.
method Contextual Multi-Armed Bandit algorithm with fairness constraints.
result Accounting for user contexts improves fairness in AI decisions.
New rule reduces exploration regret to logarithmic, improving bad episode handling.
problem Improving exploration regret in average reward MDPs.
method Replacing Doubling Trick with Vanishing Multiplicative rule in EVI-based algorithms.
result Regret is logarithmic under the new rule, significantly better than linear.
Method constructs prediction intervals for time-varying individual treatment effects.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty of individual treatment effects across multiple decision points.
method Conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions.
result Guaranteed lower bound for coverage dependent on data non-exchangeability.
EDDI efficiently finds high-value information with minimal cost.
problem Balancing decision quality with acquisition cost in dynamic information acquisition.
method EDDI uses a partial variational autoencoder (Partial VAE) and an acquisition function to maximize expected information gain.
result Cost reduction and improved decision quality in benchmarks and real-world applications.
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalizat…
This work addresses fairness constraints for multiple subpopulations in machine learning models.
problem Fairness constraints for multiple subpopulations in machine learning models.
method Constraining the expected outcome of subpopulations in kernel regression and decision tree regression, specifically random forests and boosted trees.
result The proposed solution does not affect the computational or memory complexity of decision trees and can be easily integrated post training.
Safe autonomous decisions made with machine learning predictions using Conformal Decision Theory.
problem Safe decisions from imperfect machine learning predictions.
method Conformal Decision Theory framework for producing safe decisions.
result Safe decisions with provable statistical guarantees of low risk.
The paper deals with incorporating statistical uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Statistical uncertainty in decision-making.
method Theory of nonlinear expectations.
result Explicit and consistent incorporation of uncertainty in decision valuation.
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
Improves decision-making in models fit with AEVB by using distinct approximate posteriors.
problem Bias in expected risk estimates due to variational distribution use.
method Use multiple approximate posteriors, including those distinct from variational, for decision-making.
result Proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in single-cell RNA sequencing.
A new theory explains financial markets using gambling and human decision-making.
problem No theory satisfies both practitioners and theorists for explaining market anomalies and exceptional returns.
method Combines gambling theory, human decision-making, and strategic problem-solving.
result Proposes a new theory (S SAFM) to explain financial market behavior.
Hybrid framework improves machine learning interpretability for decision making.
problem Trade-off between model performance and interpretability in machine learning.
method Neural Network-based Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (NN-MCDA) combining additive value model and MLP.
result Enhanced interpretability of machine learning models with good performance.
The paper analyzes frameworks for integrating sustainability into investment decisions.
problem Understanding how ESG factors influence investment choices.
method Examined and analyzed various theoretical frameworks including Behavioral Finance, Modern Portfolio, and Risk Management.
result Investors increasingly integrate ESG factors to optimize financial outcomes and societal goals.
Alternative to convolutions using decision trees for neural networks.
problem Replacing complex convolutions with simpler decision-based layers.
method Binary decisions as indices to conditional distributions, trained using backpropagation.
result Performance similar to conventional neural networks, with runtime improvements.
End-to-end pipeline for data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization.
problem Data-driven decision making in mixed-integer optimization with uncertainty.
method Exploiting mixed-integer optimization-representability of machine learning methods, characterizing decision trust regions, and ensembling multiple models.
result Framework generates high-quality prescriptions and controls model robustness.
CB-RL solves complex decision-making problems with contextual information and exogenous events.
problem Optimal policy in strategic decision-making problems that depend on environmental configuration and exogenous events.
method Contextual Bilevel Reinforcement Learning (CB-RL) with a stochastic Hyper Policy Gradient Descent (HPGD) algorithm.
result Demonstrated convergence and performance of the HPGD algorithm for reward shaping and tax design.
GAIF enhances online multiple testing with feedback, improving statistical power.
problem Sequential online multiple testing with delayed feedback.
method GAIF framework using dynamic threshold adjustment and feedback-driven model selection.
result Improves statistical power through feedback-driven model selection.
Proposes ReDT for interpretable, compressed, and robust decision trees.
problem Improving interpretability and performance of decision trees.
method Knowledge distillation with soft labels and multiple cross-validation.
result ReDT achieves fewer nodes than classical decision trees while maintaining good performance and interpretability.
This paper infers parameters of multiobjective decision making from noisy data.
problem Inferring parameters of multiobjective decision making from noisy data.
method Developed a data-driven inverse optimization formulation to explicitly infer parameters of a multiobjective decision making problem.
result Demonstrates strong capacity in estimating critical parameters and understanding preference distributions over multiple criteria.
In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation machine, which estimates missing values, and the causal machine, which relates the cau…
The study examines how hyperparameters affect prediction discrepancies in machine learning models.
problem Prediction inconsistencies across different machine learning models trained on the same dataset.
method Investigation of six models (Elastic Net, Decision Tree, k-NN, SVM, RF, XGBoost) on 21 benchmark datasets, focusing on key hyperparameters.
result Hyperparameter tuning improves model performance but increases prediction discrepancies, especially in Extreme Gradient Boosting.
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.
Empirical model tackles decision problems without specifying states of the world.
problem Decision problems under uncertainty with inaccessible states of the world.
method Empirical approach using observed act--consequence pairs as model primitives.
result Optimality in empirical decision problems addressed using protocol-based empirical choice functions.
Optimizes mobile notifications for multiple objectives using reinforcement learning.
problem Optimizing mobile notification systems for multiple objectives.
method End-to-end offline reinforcement learning with Double Deep Q-network and Conservative Q-learning.
result Demonstrates improved performance and benefits of the proposed approach.
In this fact sheet we give some preliminary research results on the Bayesian Decision Theory. This theory has been under construction for the past two years. But what started as an intuitive enough idea, now seems to have the makings of something more fundamental.
Optimizes decision-making with variational Bayesian methods for continuous utilities.
problem Inference approximations for continuous utilities without full posterior knowledge.
method Automatic pipeline that co-opts continuous utilities into variational inference algorithms.
result Consistent improvement in decision-making when calibrating approximations for specific utilities.
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.