Study evaluates cryptocurrency markets, focusing on Bitcoin.
problem Evaluating financial markets, especially during crises.
method Multiple-bubble testing approach.
result Identifies Bitcoin's multiple bubbles during economic periods.
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48 results for “multiple bubbles”
Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
problem Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
method Perturbations of geodesic standard double bubbles centered at critical points of the ambient scalar curvature and aligned along eigen-vectors of the ambient Ricci tensor, with general multiplicity results via Lusternik-Schnirelman theory.
result Existence of double bubbles with high constant mean curvatures in Riemannian manifolds.
Bubble Necessity Theoremecon.TH
Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.
problem Asset price bubbles exceeding fundamental values.
method Developed the Bubble Necessity Theorem in economic models with specific growth and interest rate conditions.
result Bubbles are inevitable in certain economic scenarios with high growth and low interest rates.
Degenerations of rank-two bundles on threefolds lead to isolated point singularities, with rigidity and bubbling properties.
problem Degenerations of rank-two vector bundles on complex threefolds to a rank-two torsion-free sheaf with an isolated point singularity.
method Proving a rigidity identity and using it to obtain smoothability obstructions and construct local smoothings.
result Smoothability obstructions and local smoothings are obtained, with a rigidity identity linking algebraic bubbling multiplicity and Ext-length.
On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tailscond-mat.stat-mech
This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of intermittent dynamics generating power law distributions. Using insights on the beha…
Study on CMC hypersurfaces with bounded index and area, proving multiplicity one convergence and bounds on genus.
problem Understanding CMC hypersurfaces with bounded index and area.
method Bubble-compactness theory for embedded CMC hypersurfaces in low dimensions.
result Minimal blow-ups are all catenoids, and bounds on genus provided.
The paper studies vector bundles over surfaces, focusing on singularity formation.
problem Understanding singularity formation in rank two holomorphic vector bundles over surfaces.
method Defining fertile families bearing bubbles and using elementary modifications to prove their existence.
result Existence of fertile families bearing bubbles for certain types of vector bundles.
Wave maps can have multiple bubbling solutions at blow-up points.
problem Non-uniqueness of bubbling solutions in wave maps.
method Example construction of multiple bubbling solutions.
result First known example of non-uniqueness of bubbling for dispersive equations.
We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate de…
We present some geometric applications, of global character, of the bubbling analysis developed by Buzano and Sharp for closed minimal surfaces, obtaining smooth multiplicity one convergence results under upper bounds on the Morse index and suitable lower bounds on either the genus or the area. For instance, we show th…
We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Brem…
We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market decrease (drawdowns). In …
From Rational Bubbles to Crashescond-mat.stat-mech
We study and generalize in various ways the model of rational expectation (RE) bubbles introduced by Blanchard and Watson in the economic literature. First, bubbles are argued to be the equivalent of Goldstone modes of the fundamental rational pricing equation, associated with the symmetry-breaking introduced by non-va…
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
The proliferation of fake news and filter bubbles makes it increasingly difficult to form an unbiased, balanced opinion towards a topic. To ameliorate this, we propose 360° Stance Detection, a tool that aggregates news with multiple perspectives on a topic. It presents them on a spectrum ranging from support to opposit…
In this paper we consider the functional whose critical points are solutions of the fractional CR Yamabe type equation on the sphere. We firstly study the behavior of the Palais-Smale sequences characterizing the bubbling phenomena and therefore we prove a multiplicity type result by showing the existence of infinitely…
Efficiently prices American options with multiple assets using sparse grids.
problem Pricing American options with multiple underlying assets efficiently.
method Dynamic programming formulation followed by sparse grid interpolation.
result Sparse grids reduce the number of interpolation points and maintain function smoothness.
Characterizes critical points in convex double and triple bubbles.
problem Critical points of double and triple bubbles in convex shapes.
method Characterization through stationary varifolds in and .
result Characterization of critical points in convex shapes.
LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.
problem Evaluating how LLMs behave in financial markets.
method Adapted experimental design with LLMs and human traders, analyzed in single and mixed model settings.
result LLMs tend to price assets near their fundamental value, but not as much as humans, and show less trading strategy variance.
Survey on soap bubble partitions and their stability.
problem Characterizing and stabilizing soap bubble partitions.
method Survey and analysis of recent research.
result Recent advancements in multi-bubble isoperimetric minimizers and stability.
Study Yang-Mills connections on four-manifolds, derive obstructions to bubbling.
problem Bubbling configurations in Yang-Mills fields on four-manifolds.
method Derived Pohozaev type compatibility between weak limit connection and bubbles, involving Weyl tensor.
result Obstructions to certain bubbling configurations on CP2.
Rational bubbles form in nonstationary models of real assets.
problem Understanding the emergence of rational bubbles in real assets.
method Developed economic models showing bubbles inevitably emerge in nonstationary systems.
result Bubbles in real assets are inevitable and can be analyzed using mathematical theorems.
Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
problem Characterizing speculative bubbles in discrete-time models.
method Introduces a new definition based on discounted stock price behavior and provides probabilistic characterizations.
result Speculative bubbles in discrete time are linked to solutions of a linear Volterra integral equation.
Degenerate solutions found in 2D H-system bubbles with higher degrees.
problem Existence of degenerate solutions in H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
method Algebraic characterization of degenerate bubbles.
result Degenerate solutions can exist for H-system bubbles with degree ≥ 3.
This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that docum…
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…
Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.
problem Understanding bubble formation in harmonic map heat flow.
method Continuous time approach to analyze bubbling sequences.
result Solutions approach multi-bubble configurations in continuous time.
Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.
problem Self-sustained price bubbles driven by adaptive trading behavior.
method Multi-agent model illustrating price bubble formation and statistical properties.
result Price bubbles can be driven by adaptive investment strategies.
This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that documen…
Solves the quintuple bubble problem on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
problem Minimizing total perimeter of multiple bubbles enclosing fixed volumes.
method Developed spectral theory of Jacobi operator and new bubble deformation method.
result Confirmed quintuple bubble conjecture on spheres and Euclidean spaces.
We prove an energy identity for anti-self-dual connections on the product C\timesΣof the complex plane and a Riemann surface. The energy is a multiple of a basic constant that is determined from the values of a corresponding Chern-Simons functional on flat connections and its ambiguity under gauge transformations. For …
Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubblescond-mat.stat-mech
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
Study on metric bubbles in complex dimensions 1 and 2.
problem Understanding degenerations of Kähler-Einstein metrics.
method Investigation of metric bubble trees for non-collapsing cases.
result Description of a conjectural higher-dimensional picture.
Modeling stochastic arbitrage bubbles in Black-Scholes framework.
problem Analyzing arbitrage bubbles in financial markets.
method Developed a generalized Black-Scholes equation with stochastic arbitrage bubbles.
result The Black-Scholes model is a low-energy limit of a stochastic model.
We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily data on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock market index from January 2002 thro…
Study predicts NFT bubbles using LPPL model.
problem Tackles bubble prediction of NFTs.
method Applied logarithmic periodic power law (LPPL) model to NFT price data.
result NFTs, Decentraland, and ArtBlocks are in bubbles, while Ethereum Name Service is in a negative bubble.
Study asset price bubbles in markets with short sales prohibitions and model uncertainty.
problem Investigating asset price bubbles in markets with short sales prohibitions and model uncertainty.
method Introducing a novel definition of the fundamental price and analyzing the types and characterization of bubbles using a new fundamental theorem of asset pricing and superhedging duality.
result Two distinct types of bubbles arise depending on the maturity structure of the asset, and conditions for their existence are provided.
NFT Bubblesq-fin.PR
Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.
problem Understanding retail investor behavior in asset bubbles.
method Systematic study of NFTs using public blockchain data.
result Sophisticated investors outperform others in NFT bubbles.
Study of immersions with Willmore energy leading to spherical and catenoid bubbles.
problem Classifying immersions with specific energy properties.
method Analyzing sequences of weak immersions with diverging conformal classes, applying Möbius transformations, and strong -limits.
result Obtaining spherical and catenoid bubbles as limits of immersions.
Planar Soap Bubblesmath.MG
The generalized soap bubble problem seeks the least perimeter way to enclose and separate n given volumes in R^m. We study the possible configurations for perimeter minimizing bubble complexes enclosing more than two regions. We prove that perimeter minimizing planar bubble complexes with equal pressure regions and wit…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detec…
Example of spacetime with causal bubbling, splitting into timelike and spacelike parts.
problem Understanding causal bubbling in spacetimes.
method Example of a globally hyperbolic spacetime with a continuous metric, splitting orthogonally into timelike and spacelike parts.
result The synthetic timelike curvature-dimension (TCD) condition does not prevent causal bubbling.
In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator as a diagnostic tool for identifyin…
Deep neural network detects asset bubbles with improved accuracy.
problem Detecting asset bubbles in financial markets.
method Developed a deep learning neural network to estimate diffusion coefficient of price processes.
result Improved detection of asset bubbles compared to existing methods.
The classic double bubble theorem says that the least-perimeter way to enclose and separate two prescribed volumes in is the standard double bubble. We seek the optimal double bubble in with density, which we assume to be strictly log-convex. For we show that the solution is sometime…
We explore geometric aspects of bubble convergence for harmonic maps. More precisely, we show that the formation of bubbles is characterised by the local excess of curvature on the target manifold. We give a universal estimate for curvature concentration masses at each bubble point and show that there is no curvature l…
Extracting the exponential behaviors in the market dataphysics.soc-ph
We introduce a mathematical criterion defining the bubbles or the crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering exponential fitting of the given data. By applying this criterion we can automatically extract the periods in which bubbles and crashes are identified. From stock market data of so-called the …