GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.
problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Graph Mixture Density Networks model multimodal data on graphs.
problem Challenging conditional density estimation problems with structured data.
method Combining mixture models and graph representation learning.
result Significant improvement in likelihood of epidemic outcomes.
New algorithm improves data imputation for complex multimodal data sets.
problem Artifacts in imputation methods for multimodal distributions.
method Combines kNN and KDE for probabilistic estimates. result Lower imputation errors and higher likelihood estimates.
MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.
problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.
Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.
problem Estimating non-Gaussian and multimodal probability distributions for regression problems.
method Training a denoising diffusion head on top of a Transformer model.
result The model provides reasonable probability density estimation for high-dimensional inputs.
Proposes a method to partition univariate data into unimodal subsets.
problem Partitioning univariate multimodal data into unimodal subsets.
method Recursive splitting around valley points of the data density using properties of critical points on the convex hull of the ecdf plot.
result Obtains a hierarchical statistical model of the initial dataset as a mixture of UMMs.
We introduce a novel conditional density estimation model termed the conditional density operator (CDO). It naturally captures multivariate, multimodal output densities and shows performance that is competitive with recent neural conditional density models and Gaussian processes. The proposed model is based on a novel …
JAPAN uses flow-based models to create adaptive prediction areas with better coverage guarantees.
problem Inadequate prediction areas from existing conformal prediction methods, especially for multimodal distributions.
method JAPAN employs density-based conformity scores using flow-based models to construct context-adaptive prediction areas.
result JAPAN produces more accurate and context-adaptive prediction areas compared to existing methods.
Detecting anomalous activity in human mobility data has a number of applications including road hazard sensing, telematic based insurance, and fraud detection in taxi services and ride sharing. In this paper we address two challenges that arise in the study of anomalous human trajectories: 1) a lack of ground truth dat…
Generative Stochastic Networks (GSNs) have been recently introduced as an alternative to traditional probabilistic modeling: instead of parametrizing the data distribution directly, one parametrizes a transition operator for a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is an estimator of the data generating distributio…
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional distributions which cannot be meaningfully summarized using expectation only (due to e…
A new method improves quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Handling heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data in quantile regression.
method Dynamic prototypes-based probability density estimation with conformalized high-density quantile regression.
result Enhanced prediction regions with valid coverage guarantees and scalability to higher dimensions.
rMCL improves on MCL by preserving diversity in predictions for regression problems.
problem Multimodal density estimation in regression settings with multiple targets.
method rMCL uses a learned scoring scheme based on Voronoi tessellations to maintain diversity among predictions.
result rMCL outperforms existing MCL variants in sound source localization tasks.
Unified framework for PDF estimation using MDL-based binning and tensor factorization.
problem Challenges in estimating PDFs for non-uniform, multimodal data.
method MDL-based binning with quantile cuts, tensor factorization (CPD).
result Effective PDF estimation on synthetic and real data.
UniFinEval benchmarks financial models across text, images, and videos.
problem Challenges in evaluating financial multimodal models across text, images, and videos.
method Proposes UniFinEval, a unified multimodal benchmark for financial scenarios.
result Gemini-3-pro-preview achieves best performance but still lags behind experts.
BDSG generates samples on distribution boundaries, improving anomaly detection.
problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal supports and approximating distribution tails.
method Invertible Residual Network (IResNet) and Residual Flow (ResFlow) for density estimation; compound loss function for boundary samples.
result Competitive performance on synthetic and multimodal data compared to existing methods.
AdaCat improves density estimation and planning in autoregressive models.
problem Efficiently modeling sharp density changes in continuous data.
method Adaptive Categorical Discretization (AdaCat) for autoregressive models.
result Improves density estimation and planning in various data types.
New mixture models for clustering and density estimation of unknown distributions.
problem Clustering and density estimation of data with unknown distributions.
method Two fitting methods: EM algorithm and Bayesian non-parametric method using Gibbs sampler.
result Effective clustering and density estimation of data with unknown distributions.
New method improves sampling from high-dimensional target densities.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional target densities using Monte Carlo algorithms.
method Extends Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Diffusion algorithm with random precondition matrix modeling.
result Significantly improves performance and computational efficiency over standard MCMC methods.
A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.
problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.
New deep learning model estimates scattering timescale of FRBs efficiently.
problem Estimating scattering timescale of fast radio bursts (FRBs) is a bottleneck.
method Multimodal Transformer Based Generic Mixture Density Network (MT-GMDN) that ingests dynamic spectrum and timeseries profile.
result Achieves 94% R2 on expected value of τ for measurable scattering. PDDS samples from unnormalized densities using iterative particle scheme.
problem Sampling from unnormalized probability densities.
method Iterative particle scheme with novel score matching loss.
result Asymptotically consistent estimates for multimodal and high-dimensional tasks.
Persistently trained EBMs generate images and estimate complex densities.
problem Challenges in ML learning for energy-based models, especially non-convergence of MCMC.
method Introduce diffusion data, learn a joint EBM through persistent training with enhanced sampling.
result First simultaneous achievement of stability, post-training image generation, and superior out-of-distribution detection for image data.
New method improves sampling from complex, multi-peaked distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional, multimodal distributions using HMC.
method Combines tempered HMC with automatic tuning strategies.
result Demonstrates more effective scaling with dimension than adaptive methods.
Paper bridges score estimation to parameter and density estimation in DDPMs.
problem Efficiently estimating scores for generative models.
method Introduces a framework linking score estimation to parameter and density estimation.
result Denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient for parameter estimation.
Proposes a method combining CNFs and rejection-resampling for sampling from unnormalized densities.
problem Sampling from unnormalized probability densities, especially multimodal ones.
method Combines continuous normalizing flows with rejection-resampling steps based on importance weights.
result The method improves sampling accuracy and performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
JEPAs learn data density by predicting perturbed samples, enabling density estimation.
problem Representation collapse in latent spaces.
method Combines latent-space prediction and anti-collapse terms to estimate data density.
result JEPAs can estimate sample probabilities efficiently and in closed-form.
Regression aims at estimating the conditional mean of output given input. However, regression is not informative enough if the conditional density is multimodal, heteroscedastic, and asymmetric. In such a case, estimating the conditional density itself is preferable, but conditional density estimation (CDE) is challeng…
SLS optimizes minimum-volume regions for conditional quantiles, bypassing density estimation.
problem Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage.
method Super-level-set regression (SLS) directly optimizes geometric boundaries of conditional level sets.
result SLS optimizes regions directly, capturing complex conditional structures end-to-end.
Tabular foundation models outperform other methods in conditional density estimation across various datasets.
problem Estimating the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates, especially in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty.
method Benchmarked three tabular foundation model variants (TabPFN and TabICL) against six CDE baselines on 39 real-world datasets.
result Tabular foundation models achieve the best CDE loss, log-likelihood, and CRPS across all sample sizes, outperforming other methods.
Normalizing flows and autoregressive models have been successfully combined to produce state-of-the-art results in density estimation, via Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF), and to accelerate state-of-the-art WaveNet-based speech synthesis to 20x faster than real-time, via Inverse Autoregressive Flows (IAF). We unify a…
New complexity analysis for estimating normalizing constants in high dimensions.
problem Estimating the normalizing constant of unnormalized probability densities in high dimensions.
method Analyze and derive the oracle complexity of annealed importance sampling.
result Oracle complexity of $\widetilde{O}\left(\frac{dβ^2{\mathcal{A}}^2}{\varepsilon^4}
ight)$ for estimating Z within ε relative error. Estimates interactions between modalities for multimodal data.
problem Accurately quantifying interactions between different data types.
method Developed Lightweight Sample-wise Multimodal Interaction (LSMI) estimator using pointwise information theory.
result LSMI reveals fine-grained dynamics in multimodal data.
Extends SGM to functional spaces for multimodal data.
problem Modeling densities in functional spaces.
method Represent data in spectral space, dissociate stochastic and space-time components, use SGM for sampling.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on multimodal datasets.
We present a nonparametric method for selecting informative features in high-dimensional clustering problems. We start with a screening step that uses a test for multimodality. Then we apply kernel density estimation and mode clustering to the selected features. The output of the method consists of a list of relevant f…
REGS samples from unnormalized distributions using gradient flow and neural networks.
problem Sampling from unnormalized distributions with high accuracy and efficiency.
method REGS is a particle method that iteratively transforms samples from a reference distribution to match an unnormalized target distribution using Wasserstein gradient flow and neural networks.
result REGS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sampling from challenging multimodal distributions and real datasets.
New framework estimates graph from multimodal functional data.
problem Estimating graph from joint multimodal functional data.
method Integrative framework using partial correlation operator.
result Estimator converges to stationary point with quantifiable error.
RAHMC improves sampling from multimodal distributions using dissipative dynamics.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions efficiently.
method RAHMC uses mode-repelling and mode-attracting stages with a single tuning parameter.
result RAHMC generates proposals that cross low-probability barriers efficiently.
Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions from intractable likelihoods.
method Nested MLMC for loss function and gradients, with convergence results.
result Effective methods for approximating complex multimodal posteriors.
A new mutual information lower bound for multimodal regression active learning.
problem Lack of effective acquisition functions for multimodal regression active learning.
method Introduces a Two-Index framework for separating epistemic and aleatoric sources of uncertainty, deriving MI-LB as a closed-form approximation.
result MI-LB consistently outperforms baselines on multimodal regression tasks.
Reparameterizable densities are an important way to learn probability distributions in a deep learning setting. For many distributions it is possible to create low-variance gradient estimators by utilizing a `reparameterization trick'. Due to the absence of a general reparameterization trick, much research has recently…
In this paper we contribute a novel algorithm family, which generalizes many unsupervised techniques including unnormalized and energy models, and allows us to infer different statistical modalities (e.g. data likelihood and ratio between densities) from data samples. The proposed unsupervised technique, named Probabil…
BIS uses bandits to efficiently sample from expensive-to-evaluate densities.
problem Sampling from computationally expensive target densities.
method Sequential selection through multi-armed bandits, optimizing sample set directly.
result BIS achieves accurate sampling with fewer evaluations than adaptive methods.
New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.
Framework generates multimodal datasets with known MI for benchmarking.
problem Benchmarking mutual information estimators and SSL techniques.
method Flow-based generative model and structured causal framework.
result Regression performance improves with increasing MI between modalities.
Study quantifies interactions between unlabeled multimodal data.
problem Understanding how modalities combine in semi-supervised settings.
method Information-theoretic definitions and bounds derivation.
result Validated lower and upper bounds accurately track true interactions.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a very popular and generic collection of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. One explanation for the popularity of HMC algorithms is their excellent performance as the dimension d of the target becomes large: under conditions that are satisfied for many common statistical mode…
This paper proposes and analyzes a novel clustering algorithm that combines graph-based diffusion geometry with techniques based on density and mode estimation. The proposed method is suitable for data generated from mixtures of distributions with densities that are both multimodal and have nonlinear shapes. A crucial …