Develops multifactor risk models for equities using various factors.
problem Building robust risk models for equities using different factors.
method Constructs multifactor risk models via style factors, principal components, and industry factors. Uses the Russian-doll risk model for short horizons.
result Generalizes heterotic risk model to include arbitrary non-industry factors.
Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated by several successful computer experiments.
Shrunk sample covariance matrix is a factor model of a special form combining some (typically, style) risk factor(s) and principal components with a (block-)diagonal factor covariance matrix. As such, shrinkage, which essentially inherits out-of-sample instabilities of the sample covariance matrix, is not an alternativ…
Develops a new method for benchmark portfolios and market outperformance strategies.
problem Creating effective benchmark portfolios for market outperformance.
method Explicit formulaic algorithm and multifactor risk model tailored for long-only portfolios.
result Explicit positive weights for benchmarks without principal components or iterations.
Study finds it hard to establish common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
problem Difficulty in establishing common factor pricing in corporate bonds.
method Portfolio- and bond-level analyses using multifactor models.
result Common factor pricing in corporate bonds is not significantly explanatory.
Develops multifactor approximations for SVEs with completely monotone kernels.
problem Approximating SVEs with kernels of completely monotone type.
method Multifactor approximation, Euler discretization, L2-estimation, convergence analysis. result New multifactor Euler scheme reduces computational cost and outperforms SVEs for option pricing.
Paper prices geometric Asian options using a multifactor stochastic volatility model.
problem Pricing continuous geometric Asian options under multifactor stochastic volatility.
method Asymptotic expansion and perturbation techniques for both floating and fixed strike GAOs.
result Simplified pricing formulae for GAOs derived in a multifactor stochastic volatility framework.
The discrete-time multifactor Vasiček model is a tractable Gaussian spot rate model. Typically, two- or three-factor versions allow one to capture the dependence structure between yields with different times to maturity in an appropriate way. In practice, re-calibration of the model to the prevailing market conditions …
State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are linear transformations of the nonnegative orthant.
problem Characterizing state spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes.
method Explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.
result State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are given by explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.
Study the Hull-White model with volatility uncertainty, finding an arbitrage-free term structure.
problem Finding an arbitrage-free term structure in the Hull-White model with volatility uncertainty.
method Representing volatility uncertainty with sublinear expectation and G-Brownian motion; adjusting the model to find an arbitrage-free term structure.
result The resulting term structure is affine with respect to the short rate and the adjustment factor, consistent with the traditional Hull-White model after fitting the yield curve.
The study models productivity growth and cost shares in Japan and Korea.
problem Estimating productivity growth and cost shares in multifactor CES models.
method Regression of cost shares on factor prices using linked input-output tables.
result Economy-wide propagation of productivity stimuli evaluated in a multi-sectoral model.
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied volatility expansions are explicit; they do not require any special functions nor do…
Study shows ambiguity affects optimal timing in a two-dimensional model.
problem Understanding how ambiguity influences optimal timing in a two-dimensional setting.
method Analyzes a two-dimensional optimal stopping problem with ambiguity in a multifactor model.
result Ambiguity affects the rate at which the problem is discounted, not just the growth rate of underlying processes.
Deep learning solves high-dimensional quadratic hedging problems.
problem High-dimensional incomplete markets with mean-variance and local risk minimization.
method Deep learning-based BSDE solver for optimal hedging strategies.
result High-dimensional quadratic hedging is efficiently computed with deep learning.
Unified return and risk modeling using deep learning with interpretability.
problem Lack of transparency and interpretability in deep learning models.
method Construct a multifactor model using interpretable deep learning, decompose attributes using LRP.
result Deep factor model outperforms traditional models in predictive capability.
We develop high-order approximations for the Heston model.
problem Modeling the Heston model with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Combining approximation schemes on different random grids to achieve any order of convergence.
result Achieve any order of convergence for the Heston model.
Modeling interest rates for multiple tenors considering rollover risk.
problem Tackling the risk of borrowing at a shorter tenor and lending at a longer tenor.
method Constructing a stochastic model framework with endogenous frequency basis, incorporating credit and liquidity risks.
result The model can be calibrated to market data and used for pricing interest rate derivatives.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
The paper examines the stability of Fama-French multi-factor models over time.
problem Stability of Fama-French multi-factor models over time.
method Rolling window method, Fama and MacBeth's two-step estimation, generalized GRS statistics.
result The effectiveness of Fama-French factors is not stable over time in all countries.
Proportional transaction costs present difficult theoretical problems in trading algorithm design, on account of their lack of analytical tractability. The author derives a solution of DT-NT-DT form for an arbitrary model in which the the traded asset has diffusive dynamics described by one or more stochastic risk fact…
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
Study shows past market trends reduce or increase correlations between futures contracts.
problem Estimating and managing risk in non-stationary futures markets.
method Applied Principal Regression Analysis (PRA) to quantify past market movements' effect on correlations.
result Past up or down 10-day trends reduce or increase instantaneous correlations, respectively.
Portfolio managers are typically constrained by turnover limits, minimum and maximum stock positions, cardinality, a target market capitalization and sometimes the need to hew to a style (such as growth or value). In addition, portfolio managers often use multifactor stock models to choose stocks based upon their respe…
Efficiently simulates and calibrates the rough Bergomi model using Wasserstein distance.
problem High computational complexity in pricing and calibration of the rough Bergomi model.
method Developed a modified-sum-of-exponentials Monte Carlo scheme and a calibration approach based on Wasserstein-1 distance.
result The method achieves high pricing accuracy and improved parameter recovery, optimization stability, and out-of-sample performance.
We present a flexible approach for the valuation of interest rate derivatives based on Affine Processes. We extend the methodology proposed in Keller-Ressel et al. (2009) by changing the choice of the state space. We provide semi-closed-form solutions for the pricing of caps and floors. We then show that it is possible…
New model approximates slow volatility factor using parabolic arcs.
problem Modeling slow factor of volatility in stochastic volatility models.
method Perturbation technique to derive approximate European option prices.
result Simplified expression for European option prices around modified Black-Scholes price.
We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the US stock markets for the two-year period 2001-02 and analyze their return intervals τ, which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold q. We explore the probability density function of τ, Pq(τ), assuming a stretched exp…
The paper provides formulas for volatility in various models, including rough volatility.
problem Calibrating SPX and VIX options with rough volatility models.
method Developed explicit formulae using Malliavin calculus for Gaussian processes.
result New insights on joint calibration of SPX and VIX options.
A new QHR model extends HR model with a quadratic variance function.
problem Modeling volatility with greater flexibility and stationarity.
method Introducing a quadratic variance function to the HR model, maintaining Markovian property.
result Stationary distribution of the QHR model is Pearson type IV.
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical multifactor asset pricing model. First, we present a spectral test for market timi…
New algorithm detects interactions for better individual trait prediction.
problem Tackles the challenge of making accurate individual trait predictions using interactions.
method Extends model-based MDR (MB-MDR) to detect and utilize interactions.
result Outperforms other algorithms in detecting and utilizing interactions for better prediction.
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
problem Uncertainty in oil and gas reserves poses accounting challenges for investors.
method Empirical analysis using archival data and multifactor framework.
result Changes in reserves and their components are associated with share returns, but insignificantly due to oil price and longitudinal effects. Quality of disclosures positively impacts share returns.
Randomized control methods improve asset pricing and performance analysis.
problem Challenges in drawing inferences from traditional random portfolios in performance evaluation.
method Geometric random walks and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to construct flexible control groups.
result Captured premia associated with size, value, quality, and momentum in a constrained setting.
Study improves machine learning for long-term financial portfolio management.
problem Machine learning precision declines with long-term data.
method Data augmentation using multiple time scales and learning data.
result Generalization performance can be maintained for long-term tasks.
A holomorphy potential is a complex valued function whose complex gradient, with respect to some Kähler metric, is a holomorphic vector field. Given k holomorphic vector fields on a compact complex manifold, form, for a given Kähler metric, a product of the following type: a function of the scalar curvature multiplie…
Develops high-order approximations for financial models, proving convergence and regularity.
problem Challenges in approximating and regularizing the Heston model due to its square root diffusion term.
method Random grid technique, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process, log-Heston process, PDE analysis.
result Achieves weak approximations of any order for smooth test functions in the Heston model, extending to log-Heston process.
TPOT-MDR uses genetic programming to automatically design machine learning pipelines for bioinformatics studies.
problem Efficiently analyzing complex diseases in genome-wide association studies.
method Genetic programming combined with Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) and expert knowledge-guided feature selector.
result TPOT-MDR significantly outperforms modern machine learning methods and produces high-accuracy, interpretable solutions.
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
problem Estimating climate risks in bank credit portfolios.
method Adapts credit risk models to include physical and transition risks.
result Calculates incremental credit losses due to climate risks.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
problem Risk management and actuarial modeling for autonomous vehicles.
method Examines technical difficulties and proposes a novel risk model.
result The new model better reflects real-world driving safety.
The paper discusses building ETF risk models using a multilevel classification taxonomy.
problem Building accurate risk models for ETFs.
method First, build a multilevel classification taxonomy for ETFs. Then, use this taxonomy to define risk factors and build risk models.
result The approach can accurately classify and model ETF risks.
Paper introduces new risk measures for default risk and model uncertainty.
problem Model uncertainty and default risk in rating systems.
method Introduces default risk measures and discusses their properties and impacts.
result Different default risk measures and margins of conservatism affect risk-weighted assets.
Analyzes model risk in credit risk models using VaR and ES metrics.
problem Model risk in default modeling.
method Analytical description of all possible joint models and measurement of model risk using VaR and ES metrics.
result Measures the impact of choosing or calibrating a model on portfolio loss from default.
Common complex diseases are likely influenced by the interplay of hundreds, or even thousands, of genetic variants. Converging evidence shows that genetic variants with low marginal effects (LME) play an important role in disease development. Despite their potential significance, discovering LME genetic variants and as…
Machine learning creates non-factor covariance matrices for risk models.
problem Creating robust risk models for financial portfolios.
method Developed an explicit algorithm and source code for machine learning risk models.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional risk models in empirical backtests.
The article develops a model for skewness risk in risk parity portfolios.
problem Managing skewness risk in asset allocation models.
method Modeling asset returns with skewness and jumps, deriving analytical formulas for risk contributions.
result Skewness-based risk parity portfolios outperform volatility-based portfolios in managing jump risks.
Enhances financial risk quantification in classical models.
problem Risk quantification in classical finance models.
method Nested risk measures, limiting behavior analysis.
result Uniqueness of risk-averse limit in classical models.