This paper enhances LSTM neural networks for multi-variable time series data, providing interpretable insights.
problem Accurate prediction of multi-variable time series data with interpretable insights.
method Variable-wise hidden states and a mixture attention mechanism to model the generative process of the target variable.
result Enhanced prediction performance by capturing the dynamics of different variables.
In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To …
In this paper, we propose an interpretable LSTM recurrent neural network, i.e., multi-variable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables. Currently, widely used attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To th…
We will prove that, for a 2 or 3 component L-space link, HFL− is completely determined by the multi-variable Alexander polynomial of all the sub-links of L, as well as the pairwise linking numbers of all the components of L. We will also give some restrictions on the multi-variable Alexander polynomial of …
Defines a new polynomial invariant for virtual links.
problem Developing a new invariant for virtual links.
method Introduces a multi-variable Affine Index Polynomial.
result Proves the invariant is a Vassiliev invariant of order one.
Updated polynomial for virtual tangles, compatible with decompositions.
problem Generalizing polynomial for virtual tangles.
method Updated multi-variable affine index polynomial, introduced Turaev moves.
result Polynomial compatible with tangle decompositions and crossing weight recovery.
New Alexander polynomial defined for transverse graphs.
problem Defining a polynomial invariant for transverse graphs.
method Rotation number extension and multi-variable Alexander polynomial.
result Invariant coincides with Uq(gl(1∣1))-Alexander polynomial. The Conway potential function (CPF) for colored links is a convenient version of the multi-variable Alexander-Conway polynomial. We give a skein characterization of CPF, much simpler than the one by Murakami. In particular, Conway's `smoothing of crossings' is not in the axioms. The proof uses a reduction scheme in a t…
Precisely forecasting wind speed is essential for wind power producers and grid operators. However, this task is challenging due to the stochasticity of wind speed. To accurately predict short-term wind speed under uncertainties, this paper proposed a multi-variable stacked LSTMs model (MSLSTM). The proposed method uti…
MCP extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions without data splitting.
problem Fixed prediction set shapes in scalar score functions limit coverage guarantees.
method MCP uses a single optimization problem for prediction set design and calibration, eliminating data splitting.
result RemMCP and RelMCP achieve target coverage with smaller or comparable prediction set sizes, reducing variance.
Paper compares ML models for fast power system contingency case identification.
problem Identifying critical power system states quickly.
method Comparison of regression and classification ML models.
result MLPs most suitable for fast contingency case prediction.
UCB algorithms estimate uplifts in multi-variable reward systems.
problem Marketing campaigns and recommender systems with multiple outcome variables.
method UCB-style algorithms for estimating uplifts over a baseline.
result Sublinear regret bounds for multiple problem variants.
In recent years, twisted Alexander polynomial has been playing an important role in low-dimensional topology. For Montesinos links, we develop an efficient method to compute the twisted Alexander polynomial associated to any linear representation. In particular, formulas for multi-variable Alexander polynomials of thes…
We show that link Floer homology detects the Thurston norm of a link complement. As an application, we show that the Thurston polytope of an alternating link is dual to the Newton polytope of its multi-variable Alexander polynomial. To illustrate these techniques, we also compute the Thurston polytopes of several speci…
The paper extends Pearson correlation to multi-variables, useful for noise measurement and feature selection.
problem The standard Pearson correlation coefficient is limited to two variables and doesn't meet the needs for multi-variable analysis.
method The authors use random matrix theory to extend Pearson's correlation coefficient to an arbitrary number of variables.
result The extended correlation coefficient is useful for gauging noise and selecting features, particularly in classification.
Machine learning predicts TV show success based on factors like characters and direction.
problem Predicting the success of TV shows in a competitive market.
method Descriptive and predictive modeling using machine learning.
result Shows with strong characters and good direction tend to be more successful.
We construct the Einstein equation for an invariant Riemannian metric on the exceptional full flag manifold M=G2/T. By computing a Gröbner basis for a system of polynomials of multi-variables we prove that this manifold admits exactly two non-Kähler invariant Einstein metrics. Thus G2/T turns out to be the first …
In systems biomedicine, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multi-variable network-level responses. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While c…
This paper speeds up OCSSVM training using SMO.
problem Training One-Class Slab SVMs is slow.
method Uses updated SMO to divide large problems into smaller, analytically solvable subproblems.
result Training OCSSVMs scales better with large datasets.
In many regular cases, there exists a (properly defined) limit of iterations of a function in several real variables, and this limit satisfies the functional equation (1-z)f(x)=f(f(xz)(1-z)/z); here z is a scalar and x is a vector. This is a special case of a well-known translation equation. In this paper we present a …
There are more than eight hundred interest rates published in China bond market every day. Which are the benchmark interest rates that have broad influences on most interest rates is a major concern for economists. In this paper, multi-variable Granger causality test is developed and applied to construct a directed net…
GRATIS generates diverse time series for benchmarking.
problem Lack of diverse time series data for evaluation.
method Uses mixture autoregressive (MAR) models to generate time series.
result Generates diverse and controllable time series efficiently.
Research tackles unequal length time series for classification.
problem Unequal length time series in real-world data.
method Identified and evaluated two classes of unequal length mechanisms.
result Practical recommendations for handling unequal length time series.
Previous studies indicate that nonlinear properties of Gaussian time series with long-range correlations, ui, can be detected and quantified by studying the correlations in the magnitude series ∣ui∣, i.e., the ``volatility''. However, the origin for this empirical observation still remains unclear, and the exact …
A mathematical paradox shows secant planes don't always form a tangent plane, but some analogies hold with a specific vector product.
problem Secant planes of a two-variable smooth function do not always form a tangent plane, even for simple polynomials.
method Analogies with the one-variable case are explored, using Clifford's geometric vector product.
result Some analogies with the one-variable case still hold in the multi-variable context with a specific vector product.
Modeling regime shifts in co-evolving time series with interactions and time-dependency.
problem Discovering and modeling regime shifts in multiple time series with relationships and time-dependent behaviors.
method Modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series using a mapping grid and dynamic network representation for regime identification and time-dependent Cox regression for regime transition probabilities.
result A principled approach for modeling interactions and time-dependency in co-evolving time series.
MDF represents time series motifs as images for improved classification.
problem Classifying time series data with high-order patterns.
method Motif Difference Field (MDF) using Fully Convolutional Networks (FCN).
result MDF outperforms other methods on UCR time series datasets.
We provide the proof that the space of time series data is a Kolmogorov space with T0-separation axiom using the loop space of time series data. In our approach we define a cyclic coordinate of intrinsic time scale of time series data after empirical mode decomposition. A spinor field of time series data comes fro…
Paper proposes a robust time series classification method using ResNet and Recurrence Plots.
problem Classifying time series data is challenging and underexplored.
method Transfer learning in Deep Neural Networks, 2D Recurrence Plots, ResNet architecture, simplified preprocessing.
result First time multi-time series classification using a single network.
Capturing the dynamical properties of time series concisely as interpretable feature vectors can enable efficient clustering and classification for time-series applications across science and industry. Selecting an appropriate feature-based representation of time series for a given application can be achieved through s…
Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.
problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.
Automatically extracts features from time series data for improved forecasting.
problem Manual feature selection for time series forecasting is inefficient and prone to errors.
method Extracts features from time series using recurrence plots and computer vision algorithms.
result Automatically extracted features lead to highly comparable and sometimes superior forecasting performance.
New method uses Transformers for flu forecasting.
problem Forecasting influenza-like illness trends.
method Transformer-based machine learning models with self-attention.
result Forecasting results are competitive with state-of-the-art methods.
Improved prediction of hierarchical time series using structured regularization.
problem Making coherent forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Structured regularization method for bottom-level time series predictions.
result Superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to previous methods.
Introduces a new benchmark for time series extrinsic regression.
problem Predicting a single continuous value from univariate or multivariate time series, not necessarily related to the predictor.
method Developed a new benchmarking archive for time series extrinsic regression.
result Initial benchmarking of existing models on the new TSER datasets.
Few-shot learning improves time-series forecasting with limited data.
problem Limited data in target tasks degrade forecasting performance.
method A few-shot learning method using recurrent neural networks with attention.
result The model forecasts future values effectively with minimal data.
Meta-learning for Koopman spectral analysis with short time-series data.
problem Lack of long time-series for training embedding functions in Koopman spectral analysis.
method Meta-learning approach using bidirectional LSTM and neural network to estimate embedding functions from short time-series.
result The proposed method achieves better performance in eigenvalue estimation and future prediction compared to existing methods.
Transformers improve time series modeling by capturing long-range dependencies.
problem Capturing long-range dependencies in time series data.
method Summarized and reviewed adaptations of Transformers for time series analysis.
result Transformers enhance time series forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification.
Archive of 20 time series datasets for forecasting evaluation.
problem Lack of comprehensive time series forecasting datasets.
method Compilation and characterisation of 20 datasets from various domains.
result Characterisation and performance evaluation of datasets.
Multidimensional time series are sequences of real valued vectors. They occur in different areas, for example handwritten characters, GPS tracking, and gestures of modern virtual reality motion controllers. Within these areas, a common task is to search for similar time series. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a common di…
theft package simplifies feature extraction for time series analysis in R.
problem Lack of a unified access point and methodological pipelines for feature-based time series analysis.
method theft package provides a unified framework for computing features from six open-source time series feature sets.
result theft enables comprehensive quantification and interpretation of time series structure.
SOEM clusters time series data with improved accuracy.
problem Clustering non-aligned time series data.
method Generalizes SOFM to matrix input using approximate joint diagonalisation of covariance structures.
result SOEM produces valid topological clustering of time series data.
Dilated CNN improves multivariate time series classification.
problem Multivariate time series classification.
method Transformed multivariate time series into image-like style, applied dilated and strided convolutions.
result Automatic features extracted by dilated CNN are as effective as hand-crafted features.
Method summarizes and predicts time series data for COVID-19 cases and deaths.
problem Summarizing and predicting time series data for multiple related time series.
method Hierarchical algorithm generating shapelets for centroids, nearest neighbor search for labeling, dynamic time warping for non-uniform lengths.
result Predictive model for individual time series based on aggregated statistics.
Research into the classification of time series has made enormous progress in the last decade. The UCR time series archive has played a significant role in challenging and guiding the development of new learners for time series classification. The largest dataset in the UCR archive holds 10 thousand time series only; w…
AR model forecasts partially observed dynamical time series by estimating evolution function and imputing missing variables.
problem Forecasting dynamical time series with missing variables.
method Autoregressive with slack time series (ARS) model.
result ARS model forecasts future time series with time-invariant and linear assumptions.
The paper analyzes online learning of smooth functions in both single and multi-variable settings.
problem Online learning of smooth functions with known smoothness properties.
method Analyzes classes of absolutely continuous functions and their properties, proving bounds and exact results.
result Sharp bounds and exact results for optimal prediction errors in various classes of smooth functions.
New deep probabilistic model handles missing data in time series forecasting.
problem Handling missing data in time series forecasting.
method Combination of deep learning and probabilistic methods.
result Advantage in forecasting and novelty detection with missing data.