New approach optimizes dynamic decisions with side info.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertainty with additional data.
method Combines machine learning with robust optimization.
result Proves asymptotic optimality and achieves significant improvements.
The classical dynamic programming-based optimal stochastic control methods fail to cope with nonseparable dynamic optimization problems as the principle of optimality no longer applies in such situations. Among these notorious nonseparable problems, the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection formulation had posted a…
The paper solves multi-period portfolio selection with constraints using a dynamic factor model.
problem Multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection with constraints.
method Dynamic factor model, dynamic programming, piecewise linear feedback policy.
result Optimal portfolio policies determined by two stochastic processes.
Optimizes multi-period portfolios with tail-risk constraints using neural networks.
problem Maximizing expected return while managing tail-risk constraints over multiple periods.
method Recurrent neural network approach to approximate optimal policy.
result Validated in financial and insurance models, capturing long-term risk dynamics.
Study examines how slight model changes affect multi-period optimization outcomes.
problem Effect of small probabilistic model changes on multi-period optimization problems.
method Adapted Wasserstein distance for measuring changes, explicit first-order approximations proved.
result Explicit first-order approximations for multi-period stochastic optimization and optimal stopping problems.
New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.
problem Optimizing multi-period portfolios with risk and variance objectives.
method Model Predictive Control with Mean-Variance and Risk Parity.
result 30x faster and more robust solutions compared to single period models.
Neural networks enhance linear programming for complex decision-making problems.
problem High-dimensional and combinatorial operations research problems.
method Hybrid solution method combining linear programming and neural networks.
result Neural network value function approximations outperform polynomial approximations in a transportation problem.
Combines MCTS and neural networks for efficient multi-period financial planning.
problem Solving multi-period financial planning models with high transaction costs and regime switching.
method Integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with deep neural networks, using UTC and lookup search.
result Combined approach outperforms individual methods, solving complex models.
Study dynamic Pareto-optimal allocations in multi-period economies with time-consistent risk measures.
problem Optimal allocation in multi-period pure-exchange economies with stochastic endowments and time-consistent risk measures.
method Introduced dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes and derived recursive and comonotone improvement theorems.
result Dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes can be constructed recursively and are comonotone.
Model for multi-period carbon market pricing with allowances.
problem Carbon market pricing with multiple trading periods and compliance times.
method Singular forward-backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs).
result Value function convergence to infinite period model under certain conditions.
Richard Bellman's Principle of Optimality, formulated in 1957, is the heart of dynamic programming, the mathematical discipline which studies the optimal solution of multi-period decision problems. In this paper, we look at the main trading principles of Jesse Livermore, the legendary stock operator whose method was pu…
In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative) and a non-traded underlying (e.g. temperature). The risk preferences are of expo…
The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.
problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.
We consider the estimation of the multi-period optimal portfolio obtained by maximizing an exponential utility. Employing Jeffreys' non-informative prior and the conjugate informative prior, we derive stochastic representations for the optimal portfolio weights at each time point of portfolio reallocation. This provide…
Enhances financial time series forecasting with a multi-period learning framework.
problem Accurate financial time series forecasting requires considering both short-term and long-term trends.
method Proposes a Multi-period Learning Framework (MLF) with three modules: Inter-period Redundancy Filtering, Learnable Weighted-average Integration, and Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching.
result Improves financial time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
New algorithm tackles optimization problems with discontinuous gradients in finance and insurance.
problem Optimization problems with discontinuous stochastic gradients in finance and insurance.
method Langevin dynamics based algorithm e-THεO POULA. result Non-asymptotic error bounds and expected excess risk estimates for e-THεO POULA. Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.
Bayesian filtering optimizes portfolio weights over time with uncertain parameters.
problem Optimizing portfolios over long periods with unknown parameters.
method Bayesian filtering through dynamic linear models for dynamic parameter estimation.
result Bayesian updating improves portfolio performance and is practical.
The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.
problem Hidden dependence of asset pricing models on price and payoff autocorrelations.
method Obtained approximations of the basic pricing equation describing various parameters.
result Valid results for other pricing models like ICAPM and APM.
Stochastic programs simplify complex models with noise and nondeterminism.
problem Handling models with nuisance parameters, noise, and nondeterminism.
method Developed a reference implementation for stochastic probabilistic programs and inference.
result Efficient inference in models with noise and nondeterminism is possible.
New method for optimizing risk in financial models using Fourier transforms.
problem Optimizing risk in financial models with multi-period mean-CVaR.
method Strictly monotone 2D integration scheme via Fourier-trained transition kernels.
result Established robust and accurate optimization method for financial models.
We study robust stochastic optimization problems in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. The strategies in the multi-period-case are restricted to those taking values in a discrete set. The optimization problems under consideration are not concave. We provide conditions under which a maximizer exists. The class of …
In this article, inspired by Shi, et al. we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark, and portfolio constraints. We test …
We consider a basic model of multi-period trading, which can be used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. We describe a framework for single-period optimization, where the trades in each period are found by solving a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk, transaction cost and h…
In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed a…
Optimizes electric aircraft deployment for Canadian aviation to reduce emissions.
problem Limited fleet capacity and operational structure hinder electric aircraft transition.
method Multi-period mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework.
result Electric aircraft can reduce emissions by over 70% within five years.
New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.
problem Lack of general agreement on building robust multi-period portfolios.
method Detrended cluster entropy approach to estimate portfolio weights.
result Portfolio weights are estimated reliably from real-world data at varying time horizons.
Generalising the idea of the classical EM algorithm that is widely used for computing maximum likelihood estimates, we propose an EM-Control (EM-C) algorithm for solving multi-period finite time horizon stochastic control problems. The new algorithm sequentially updates the control policies in each time period using Mo…
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures underpinned by extreme va…
Paper proposes a novel trading strategy combining clustering and reinforcement learning for multi-period portfolio management.
problem Developing an effective trading strategy for multi-period portfolio management.
method The paper integrates clustering techniques with reinforcement learning to categorize and manage stocks across multiple trading periods.
result The proposed strategy outperforms conventional techniques in various metrics, achieving an average return of 151% over 360 trading periods.
Optimal control solves multi-period liability clearing problems.
problem Clearing liabilities among entities over multiple periods.
method Formulated as a convex optimal control problem, solved using convex costs and constraints.
result Solves the problem of clearing liabilities among entities over multiple periods.
We improve optimization for data with varying variance.
problem Optimizing data with varying variance.
method Generalized learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven optimization.
result Asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for stochastic programs.
A new method for efficient inference in probabilistic programs with mixed support.
problem Challenges in inference for programs with both continuous and discrete latent variables.
method Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Outperforms existing composing inference baselines and works almost as well as inference in marginalized versions.
Improved algorithms solve multi-period multi-class packing problems with bandit feedback.
problem Optimizing item packing under budget constraints with class-dependent rewards and bandit feedback.
method Developed a new estimator and a closed-form bandit policy for linear contextual multi-class multi-period packing problems.
result The proposed policy achieves sublinear regret in non-degenerate contexts, significantly outperforming benchmarks.
New method solves nonseparable stochastic control problems.
problem Nonseparable and non-monotonic stochastic control problems.
method Scenario-decomposition solution framework using progressive hedging algorithm.
result Extends reach of stochastic optimal control.
Bayesian approach for policy search in stochastic domains.
problem Policy search in stochastic domains.
method Nested probabilistic programs, Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) adaptation.
result Similar quality policies learned with simpler algorithm.
Evaluating AI investment strategies
problem Auditing a black-box algorithmic decision-maker
method Exact decomposition of cumulative regret
result Cumulative regret equals sum of per-period covariances
A new method speeds up community detection in graphs.
problem Efficiently detecting communities in large graphs.
method Subsampled semidefinite programming for faster clustering.
result Statistical limits of sketching for community detection established.
A neural network approach solves optimal decumulation problems for pension plans.
problem Optimal asset allocation and withdrawal strategies for DC pension holders.
method Data-driven neural network optimization with customized activation functions.
result The neural network approach learns near-optimal solutions comparable to HJB PDE methods.
Method solves complex optimization problems with high probability bounds.
problem Nonlinear equality constrained stochastic optimization problems.
method Step-search sequential quadratic programming method.
result High-probability bound on iteration complexity for first-order stationarity.
This paper considers the optimal portfolio selection problem in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with regime switching. The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with an absolute coefficient of risk aversion which changes with the regime. The market model is incomplete and there are two risky asset…
Improves logistic regression performance with nonconvex programming.
problem Stochastic generalized linear regression with chance constraints.
method Nonconvex programming techniques, clustering, quantile estimation.
result Over 1 to 2 percent improvement in model performance.
In this paper, we introduce a new stochastic approximation (SA) type algorithm, namely the randomized stochastic gradient (RSG) method, for solving an important class of nonlinear (possibly nonconvex) stochastic programming (SP) problems. We establish the complexity of this method for computing an approximate stationar…
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
Optimal asset allocation strategy outperforms stochastic benchmark.
problem Achieving higher terminal wealth than a stochastic benchmark.
method Data-driven Neural Network optimization framework for dynamic asset allocation.
result Optimal adaptive strategy outperforms benchmark with higher median and right-skewed terminal wealth.
Unified framework for learning flexible probabilistic programs using DPP and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Learning and generalizing from complex probabilistic models.
method Unified DPP representation and PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic programs.
result Improved performance and generalization prediction using flexible DPP model representations and learned complexity measures.
Bayesian method approximates intractable stochastic programs with chance constraints.
problem Designing systems with stochastic constraints and chance constraints.
method Variational Bayesian approach to approximate posterior predictive integral.
result The solution set converges to the true solution set as the number of observations increases.