Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.
New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.
problem Optimizing multi-period portfolios with risk and variance objectives.
method Model Predictive Control with Mean-Variance and Risk Parity.
result 30x faster and more robust solutions compared to single period models.
The classical dynamic programming-based optimal stochastic control methods fail to cope with nonseparable dynamic optimization problems as the principle of optimality no longer applies in such situations. Among these notorious nonseparable problems, the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection formulation had posted a…
New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.
problem Lack of general agreement on building robust multi-period portfolios.
method Detrended cluster entropy approach to estimate portfolio weights.
result Portfolio weights are estimated reliably from real-world data at varying time horizons.
For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming. However, this assumes a known distribution for the parameters of the financial time se…
The paper solves multi-period portfolio selection with constraints using a dynamic factor model.
problem Multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection with constraints.
method Dynamic factor model, dynamic programming, piecewise linear feedback policy.
result Optimal portfolio policies determined by two stochastic processes.
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear funct…
Robo-advisor uses ML to optimize investment performance.
problem Maximizing investment performance with historical data.
method Inverse optimization and deep reinforcement learning.
result Robo-advisor consistently outperformed S&P 500.
This paper proposes a new method to optimize portfolio allocation with transaction costs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with transaction costs in multi-period settings.
method Wiener chaos expansion approach to represent and solve the optimization problem.
result The proposed method finds an optimal strategy for portfolio allocation with transaction costs.
Optimal capital allocation between different assets is an important financial problem, which is generally framed as the portfolio optimization problem. General models include the single-period and multi-period cases. The traditional Mean-Variance model introduced by Harry Markowitz has been the basis of many models use…
Enhances financial time series forecasting with a multi-period learning framework.
problem Accurate financial time series forecasting requires considering both short-term and long-term trends.
method Proposes a Multi-period Learning Framework (MLF) with three modules: Inter-period Redundancy Filtering, Learnable Weighted-average Integration, and Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching.
result Improves financial time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
RL models outperform traditional methods in certain market conditions.
problem Traditional portfolio management methods rely on accurate forecasts and do not incorporate specific investor preferences.
method Deep reinforcement learning with specific investor preferences incorporated into reward functions, realistic transaction costs modelled.
result RL models can significantly outperform traditional methods in upward trending markets, but not in sideways trending markets.
Optimizes multi-period portfolios with tail-risk constraints using neural networks.
problem Maximizing expected return while managing tail-risk constraints over multiple periods.
method Recurrent neural network approach to approximate optimal policy.
result Validated in financial and insurance models, capturing long-term risk dynamics.
The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.
problem Hidden dependence of asset pricing models on price and payoff autocorrelations.
method Obtained approximations of the basic pricing equation describing various parameters.
result Valid results for other pricing models like ICAPM and APM.
Study examines how slight model changes affect multi-period optimization outcomes.
problem Effect of small probabilistic model changes on multi-period optimization problems.
method Adapted Wasserstein distance for measuring changes, explicit first-order approximations proved.
result Explicit first-order approximations for multi-period stochastic optimization and optimal stopping problems.
Combines MCTS and neural networks for efficient multi-period financial planning.
problem Solving multi-period financial planning models with high transaction costs and regime switching.
method Integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with deep neural networks, using UTC and lookup search.
result Combined approach outperforms individual methods, solving complex models.
Robo-advisors use MPC to create dynamic investment strategies.
problem Static allocation methods limit robo-advisors' effectiveness.
method Combines MPC with Hidden Markov Model and Black-Litterman for dynamic asset allocation.
result MPC-based strategies outperform static approaches in dynamic and risk-budgeting criteria.
We consider a basic model of multi-period trading, which can be used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. We describe a framework for single-period optimization, where the trades in each period are found by solving a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk, transaction cost and h…
In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed a…
Model for multi-period carbon market pricing with allowances.
problem Carbon market pricing with multiple trading periods and compliance times.
method Singular forward-backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs).
result Value function convergence to infinite period model under certain conditions.
Study dynamic Pareto-optimal allocations in multi-period economies with time-consistent risk measures.
problem Optimal allocation in multi-period pure-exchange economies with stochastic endowments and time-consistent risk measures.
method Introduced dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes and derived recursive and comonotone improvement theorems.
result Dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation processes can be constructed recursively and are comonotone.
Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures underpinned by extreme va…
Paper proposes a novel trading strategy combining clustering and reinforcement learning for multi-period portfolio management.
problem Developing an effective trading strategy for multi-period portfolio management.
method The paper integrates clustering techniques with reinforcement learning to categorize and manage stocks across multiple trading periods.
result The proposed strategy outperforms conventional techniques in various metrics, achieving an average return of 151% over 360 trading periods.
Optimal control solves multi-period liability clearing problems.
problem Clearing liabilities among entities over multiple periods.
method Formulated as a convex optimal control problem, solved using convex costs and constraints.
result Solves the problem of clearing liabilities among entities over multiple periods.
Improved algorithms solve multi-period multi-class packing problems with bandit feedback.
problem Optimizing item packing under budget constraints with class-dependent rewards and bandit feedback.
method Developed a new estimator and a closed-form bandit policy for linear contextual multi-class multi-period packing problems.
result The proposed policy achieves sublinear regret in non-degenerate contexts, significantly outperforming benchmarks.
Paper solves a control problem with robust methods.
problem Monotone mean-variance problems with stochastic coefficients.
method Finding saddle point through BSDEs with unbounded coefficients.
result Optimal control and value match mean-variance problems.
In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative) and a non-traded underlying (e.g. temperature). The risk preferences are of expo…
We consider the estimation of the multi-period optimal portfolio obtained by maximizing an exponential utility. Employing Jeffreys' non-informative prior and the conjugate informative prior, we derive stochastic representations for the optimal portfolio weights at each time point of portfolio reallocation. This provide…
A new ratio, the Hansen ratio, simplifies mean-variance portfolio theory.
problem Simplifying mean-variance portfolio theory.
method Introducing the Hansen ratio and extending mean-variance theory.
result The Hansen ratio provides a parsimonious description of the mean-variance efficient frontier.
We present a general approach to the pricing of products in finance and insurance in the multi-period setting. It is a combination of the utility indifference pricing and optimal intertemporal risk allocation. We give a characterization of the optimal intertemporal risk allocation by a first order condition. Applying t…
New results on financial equilibria in markets with general semimartingales.
problem Existence and uniqueness of mean-variance equilibria in semimartingale markets.
method Analysis of dynamic mean-variance hedging and fixed-point problems.
result First results allowing for general semimartingales and both discrete and continuous time.
New method for portfolio management learns from past wealth evolution.
problem Optimizing portfolio selection based on past performance.
method Simulated annealing clustering for asset selection, considering past wealth evolution.
result Strategy effectively learns from past performance and performs well in practice.
The paper solves MMV and MV problems with random coefficients and finds shared optimal strategies.
problem Optimal trading strategies with random market coefficients.
method Backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) to find optimal strategies.
result MMV and MV problems share the same optimal portfolio and value under random coefficients.
The paper analyzes optimal investment strategies for life insurance contracts using mean-variance optimization.
problem Optimal portfolio choice for equity holders in life insurance contracts.
method Mean-variance optimization, explicit formulas, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, numerical analysis.
result Equity holders increase investment in risky assets during economic downturns.
New method solves continuous time mean-variance model for consistent investment strategy.
problem Time-consistent optimal strategy for continuous time mean-variance model.
method Developed a new Bellman principle method.
result Obtained a time-consistent dynamic optimal strategy.
In the paper, we consider three quadratic optimization problems which are frequently applied in portfolio theory, i.e, the Markowitz mean-variance problem as well as the problems based on the mean-variance utility function and the quadratic utility.Conditions are derived under which the solutions of these three optimiz…
The paper characterizes optimal dynamic portfolios for a modified mean-variance utility.
problem Optimal dynamic portfolio choice for a modified mean-variance utility.
method Complete characterization under minimal assumptions, no restrictions on asset return moments.
result Maximal MMV utility is linked to the monotone Sharpe ratio, with global squared MSR as the nominal yield.
The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a classical learning task that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. However, standard formulations do not take into account {\em risk}. In online decision making systems, risk is a primary concern. In this regard, the mean-variance risk measure is one of the most co…
We solve a multi-period portfolio optimization problem using D-Wave Systems' quantum annealer. We derive a formulation of the problem, discuss several possible integer encoding schemes, and present numerical examples that show high success rates. The formulation incorporates transaction costs (including permanent and t…
This paper optimizes portfolio selection by penalizing tracking error, improving Sharpe ratio.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with a penalty for deviation from a reference portfolio.
method Formulated as a McKean-Vlasov control problem, provides explicit solutions and asymptotic expansions.
result The penalized portfolio strategy outperforms standard mean-variance and reference portfolios in most cases.
The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.
problem Nonparametric robust control under dependence uncertainty in multi-period stochastic systems.
method Nonparametric adaptive robust control framework using stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm.
result The controller benefits from knowing more about the uncertain model.
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial Information. The underlying asset price process follows a continuous semimartingale and strategies have to be constructed when only part of the information in the market is available. We show that the initial mean variance hedging problem is equivalent to a ne…
Risk management in dynamic decision problems is a primary concern in many fields, including financial investment, autonomous driving, and healthcare. The mean-variance function is one of the most widely used objective functions in risk management due to its simplicity and interpretability. Existing algorithms for mean-…
Study of discrete-time mean-variance model using reinforcement learning.
problem Discrete-time model with more general return distribution assumptions.
method Entropy-based exploration cost, reinforcement learning algorithm design.
result Optimal investment strategy with Gaussian density function.
The paper identifies the minimum mean-variance spanning set and its importance in asset evaluation.
problem Estimating the minimum subset of assets that span the efficient frontier.
method Established identification conditions and developed a novel procedure for MSS estimation and inference.
result The MSS estimator accurately covers the true MSS and converges to it at any desired confidence level.
In this paper we derive the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility function under return predictability. It is assumed that the asset returns depend on predictable variables and that the joint random process of the asset returns and the predictable variables follow a vect…
Study finds equivalence between MMV and MV preferences with conic constraints.
problem Monotone mean-variance portfolio selection under conic constraints.
method Closed-form solutions for optimal strategies under MMV and MV preferences.
result Optimal strategies coincide with and without the conic constraint.