arXiv research

Study dynamic Pareto-optimal allocations in multi-period economies with time-consistent risk measures.

Enhances financial time series forecasting with a multi-period learning framework.

Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.

Optimizes multi-period portfolios with tail-risk constraints using neural networks.

The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.

Study examines how slight model changes affect multi-period optimization outcomes.

New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.

Combines MCTS and neural networks for efficient multi-period financial planning.

We consider a basic model of multi-period trading, which can be used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. We describe a framework for single-period optimization, where the trades in each period are found by solving a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk, transaction cost and h…

In the present paper, we derive a closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function with and without a riskless asset. All results are derived under weak conditions on the asset returns. No assumption on the correlation structure between different time points is needed a…

Model for multi-period carbon market pricing with allowances.

New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.

Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures underpinned by extreme va…

Paper proposes a novel trading strategy combining clustering and reinforcement learning for multi-period portfolio management.

Optimal control solves multi-period liability clearing problems.

The present paper provides a multi-period contagion model in the credit risk field. Our model is an extension of Davis and Lo's infectious default model. We consider an economy of n firms which may default directly or may be infected by other defaulting firms (a domino effect being also possible). The spontaneous defau…

Improved algorithms solve multi-period multi-class packing problems with bandit feedback.

In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative) and a non-traded underlying (e.g. temperature). The risk preferences are of expo…

We consider the estimation of the multi-period optimal portfolio obtained by maximizing an exponential utility. Employing Jeffreys' non-informative prior and the conjugate informative prior, we derive stochastic representations for the optimal portfolio weights at each time point of portfolio reallocation. This provide…

We present a general approach to the pricing of products in finance and insurance in the multi-period setting. It is a combination of the utility indifference pricing and optimal intertemporal risk allocation. We give a characterization of the optimal intertemporal risk allocation by a first order condition. Applying t…

The classical dynamic programming-based optimal stochastic control methods fail to cope with nonseparable dynamic optimization problems as the principle of optimality no longer applies in such situations. Among these notorious nonseparable problems, the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection formulation had posted a…

Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.

We solve a multi-period portfolio optimization problem using D-Wave Systems' quantum annealer. We derive a formulation of the problem, discuss several possible integer encoding schemes, and present numerical examples that show high success rates. The formulation incorporates transaction costs (including permanent and t…

The paper tackles robust control with uncertain dependence using data-driven methods.

Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.

In this paper we derive the exact solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for an exponential utility function under return predictability. It is assumed that the asset returns depend on predictable variables and that the joint random process of the asset returns and the predictable variables follow a vect…

In this work we study the Lebesgue property for convex risk measures on the space of bounded càdlàg random processes ($\mathcal{R}^\infty$). Lebesgue property has been defined for one period convex risk measures in \cite{Jo} and earlier had been studied in \cite{De} for coherent risk measures. We introduce and study th…

Study quantifies model risk in dynamic portfolio selection using KL divergence.

Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.

Paper develops MMOT framework for financial applications with neural acceleration.

For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming. However, this assumes a known distribution for the parameters of the financial time se…

We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replicatio…

Optimizes trading strategy considering alpha decay and transaction costs.

Richard Bellman's Principle of Optimality, formulated in 1957, is the heart of dynamic programming, the mathematical discipline which studies the optimal solution of multi-period decision problems. In this paper, we look at the main trading principles of Jesse Livermore, the legendary stock operator whose method was pu…

RL models outperform traditional methods in certain market conditions.

Paper proposes a framework for token economy simulation and wealth distribution.

Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.

Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.

We discuss a Pareto macro-economy (a) in a closed system with fixed total wealth and (b) in an open system with average mean wealth and compare our results to a similar analysis in a super-open system (c) with unbounded wealth. Wealth condensation takes place in the social phase for closed and open economies, while it …

The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.

We study the competitive equilibrium of large random economies with linear activities using methods of statistical mechanics. We focus on economies with $C$ commodities, $N$ firms, each running a randomly drawn linear technology, and one consumer. We derive, in the limit $N,C\to\infty$ with $n=N/C$ fixed, a complete de…

New method for optimizing risk in financial models using Fourier transforms.

Robo-advisor uses ML to optimize investment performance.

Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.

We study robust stochastic optimization problems in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. The strategies in the multi-period-case are restricted to those taking values in a discrete set. The optimization problems under consideration are not concave. We provide conditions under which a maximizer exists. The class of …

In this article, inspired by Shi, et al. we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark, and portfolio constraints. We test …

In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…

Market economy closely connects aspects to all walks of life. The stock forecast is one of task among studies on the market economy. However, information on markets economy contains a lot of noise and uncertainties, which lead economy forecasting to become a challenging task. Ensemble learning and deep learning are the…