arXiv research

The paper analyzes MACD using operator theory.

This paper analyzes the skewness of momentum trading strategies.

One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering problem. We design a family of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) recursions,…

High fidelity behavior prediction of intelligent agents is critical in many applications. However, the prediction model trained on the training set may not generalize to the testing set due to domain shift and time variance. The challenge motivates the adoption of online adaptation algorithms to update prediction model…

We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence measurement noise) via techniques borrowed from random matrix theory. We calculate…

Popular graph neural networks implement convolution operations on graphs based on polynomial spectral filters. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional layer inspired by the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) filter that, compared to polynomial ones, provides a more flexible frequency response, is more …

Have you ever felt miserable because of a sudden whipsaw in the price that triggered an unfortunate trade? In an attempt to remove this noise, technical analysts have used various types of moving averages (simple, exponential, adaptive one or using Nyquist criterion). These tools may have performed decently but we show…

Graph neural networks leverage graph filters to learn from network data.

The paper optimizes portfolios using MACD signals derived from price history.

This article proposes and evaluates a technique to predict the level of interference in wireless networks. We design a recursive predictor that estimates future interference values by filtering measured interference at a given location. The predictor's parameterization is done offline by translating the autocorrelation…

We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the concentrated covariant matrix of the moving average process. Under GLS the likelihood …

New moving average adapts weight dynamically based on polynomial and wavefunction.

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density in which skewness and ku…

We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal, nonparametric-window moving-average filter, a construction that we show to be equivalent to …

This study uses moving average cluster entropy to analyze financial market dynamics.

tl;dr: no, it cannot, at least not on average on the standard archive problems. We assess whether using six smoothing algorithms (moving average, exponential smoothing, Gaussian filter, Savitzky-Golay filter, Fourier approximation and a recursive median sieve) could be automatically applied to time series classificatio…

Dynamic trading strategies, in the spirit of trend-following or mean-reversion, represent an only partly understood but lucrative and pervasive area of modern finance. Assuming Gaussian returns and Gaussian dynamic weights or signals, (e.g., linear filters of past returns, such as simple moving averages, exponential we…

In this note we discuss the mathematical tools to define trend indicators which are used to describe market trends. We explain the relation between averages and moving averages on the one hand and the so called exponential moving average (EMA) on the other hand. We present a lot of examples and give the definition of t…

In the paper, we introduce a new measure of correlation between possibly non-stationary series. As the measure is based on the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA), we label it as the DMCA coefficient $ρ_{DMCA}(λ)$ with a moving average window length $λ$. We analytically show that the coefficient…

The Hurst exponent $H$ of long range correlated series can be estimated by means of the Detrending Moving Average (DMA) method. A computational tool defined within the algorithm is the generalized variance $σ_{DMA}^2={1}/{(N-n)}\sum_i [y(i)-\widetilde{y}_n(i)]^2\:$, with $\widetilde{y}_n(i)= {1}/{n}\sum_{k}y(i-k)$ the…

The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with respect to its own moving average. We consider a number of tests for various models…

We propose a method for pricing American options whose pay-off depends on the moving average of the underlying asset price. The method uses a finite dimensional approximation of the infinite-dimensional dynamics of the moving average process based on a truncated Laguerre series expansion. The resulting problem is a fin…

Paper predicts cryptocurrency bull and bear phases using Bitcoin's moving averages.

A new model captures irregularly spaced high-frequency prices and their volatility.

This paper studies an intelligent ultimate technique for health-monitoring and prognostic of common rotary machine components, particularly bearings. During a run-to-failure experiment, rich unsupervised features from vibration sensory data are extracted by a trained sparse auto-encoder. Then, the correlation of the ex…

A new QHR model extends HR model with a quadratic variance function.

We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …

New method predicts spatio-temporal data with short and long-range dependence.

Efficient method for pricing Bermudan moving average options using GPR-GHQ.

In this paper we consider backward stochastic differential equations with time-delayed generators of a moving average type. The classical framework with linear generators depending on $(Y(t),Z(t))$ is extended and we investigate linear generators depending on $(\frac{1}{t}\int_0^tY(s)ds, \frac{1}{t}\int_0^tZ(s)ds)$. We…

WaveCycleGAN has recently been proposed to bridge the gap between natural and synthesized speech waveforms in statistical parametric speech synthesis and provides fast inference with a moving average model rather than an autoregressive model and high-quality speech synthesis with the adversarial training. However, the …

Machine learning models outperform traditional technical analysis in Bitcoin trading.

Enhances trading signals using image analysis and weighted moving averages.

Model reduction methods aim to describe complex dynamic phenomena using only relevant dynamical variables, decreasing computational cost, and potentially highlighting key dynamical mechanisms. In the absence of special dynamical features such as scale separation or symmetries, the time evolution of these variables typi…

On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …

In stochastic multi-armed bandits, the reward distribution of each arm is assumed to be stationary. This assumption is often violated in practice (e.g., in recommendation systems), where the reward of an arm may change whenever is selected, i.e., rested bandit setting. In this paper, we consider the non-parametric rott…

Deep CNN model predicts stock prices with high accuracy.

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement with them. It suggests how to construct trading strategies which imply a capital g…

A new method corrects bias in machine learning for trading by filtering out non-executable prices.

BEMA reduces bias in EMA, leading to faster convergence and better performance.

New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.

We derive an explicit formula for likelihood function for Gaussian VARMA model conditioned on initial observables where the moving-average (MA) coefficients are scalar. For fixed MA coefficients the likelihood function is optimized in the autoregressive variables $Φ$'s by a closed form formula generalizing regression c…

The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to quantify the long-term correlations of non-stationary time series and the long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter $θ$ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop multifractal detrending moving a…

Variational inference has had great success in scaling approximate Bayesian inference to big data by exploiting mini-batch training. To date, however, this strategy has been most applicable to models of independent data. We propose an extension to state space models of time series data based on a novel generative model…

STORM-PG uses momentum for faster policy gradient updates.

Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.

We propose an explicit recursive method to approximate a power-law with a finite sum of weighted exponentials. Applications to moving averages with long memory are discussed in relationship with stochastic volatility models.

Optimal weight windows are found by projecting the origin onto a convex polytope.