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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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129257386514 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for movement prediction

Taureau uses Twitter sentiment analysis to predict stock market movement.

problem Predicting stock market movement using public opinion on Twitter.
method Obtained historical tweets, filtered and labeled, generated word embeddings, assessed sentiment scores, correlated with stock price movement, designed and evaluated predictive model.
result Taureau can predict stock price movement from lagged sentiment scores.

MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.

problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.

Paper uses CNN to predict stock price movement as an image classification problem.

problem Predicting stock price movement using machine learning.
method CNN-based model for classifying stock price movement based on the first hour of trading.
result The algorithm effectively separated between stock price movement classes and outperformed other strategies.

Enhances stock movement prediction using Higher Order Transformers for multimodal time-series data.

problem Predicting stock movements in financial markets with complex dynamics.
method Introduced Higher Order Transformers, extending self-attention and transformer architecture to capture complex market dynamics. Employed low-rank tensor decomposition and kernel attention to manage computational complexity. Integrated technical and fundamental analysis from historical prices and tweets.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the method on the Stocknet dataset, improving stock movement prediction.

This paper predicts weekly stock market movements using machine learning and introduces a new benchmark.

problem Predicting stock market movements using daily data and various ML models.
method Focuses on weekly movements, introduces random traders as a benchmark, uses additional features, and adjusts training datasets.
result Trained models, especially MLP, show good performance across different trends.

Enhances LLMs for predicting stock movements by considering news dissemination and context.

problem Lack of consideration for news dissemination and insufficient contextual data in LLMs for stock price prediction.
method Clusters news for reach assessment, enriches prompts with specific data and instructions, fine-tunes an LLM using the dataset.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 8% compared to existing methods.

ChatGPT struggles in predicting stock movements, underperforming traditional methods.

problem Predicting stock market movements using ChatGPT.
method Zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT's multimodal stock prediction capabilities.
result ChatGPT underperforms traditional methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting stock movements.

The study models market price movement based on investors' expectations.

problem Understanding the dynamics of investors' expectations and market price movement.
method Developed a non-linear evolutionary equation linking investors' expectations and market asset price movement.
result Model predictions co-integrated with asset time series, suggesting potential for price movement forecasting.

Proposes a multi-modal attention network for better stock price prediction.

problem Predicting future stock movements using historical records and social media.
method Extracts semantic information from social media, estimates credibility, and integrates with numeric features.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy and trading profits compared to previous methods.

Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement pred…

2019-10-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves stock movement prediction using multimodal data.

problem Inaccurate stock movement prediction due to incomplete multimodal data integration.
method Introduces MSGCA framework for robust multimodal fusion.
result MSGCA framework outperforms existing methods by 21.7% on multimodal datasets.

Machine learning struggles to predict binary options movements due to randomness.

problem Predicting binary options movements using machine learning.
method Tested multiple machine learning models (RF, LR, GB, kNN) and neural networks (MLP, LSTM) on EUR/USD currency pairs.
result None of the models surpassed the ZeroR baseline accuracy, indicating randomness in binary options.

GCNET predicts stock price movements using graph convolutional networks.

problem Predicting stock price movements using interrelated stocks data.
method GCNET models stock relations as an influence network, uses graph convolutional networks for prediction.
result GCNET significantly improves prediction accuracy and MCC measures.

QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.

problem Predicting stock market movement in uncertain economic conditions.
method Used LSTM and QLSTM models on monthly data of economic indicators.
result QLSTM provided more accurate predictions of KSE 100 index values.

Predict stock price movements using financial data and news articles with LLMs.

problem Predicting stock price movements using financial data and news articles.
method Combining financial data and news articles, employing pre-trained LLMs, and using retrieval augmentation techniques.
result Predicted stock price movements with a weighted F1-score of 58.5% and 59.1%.

News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.

problem Drivers of the excess bond premium (EBP).
method News attention to 180 topics captures up to 80% of EBP variation and forecasts macroeconomic movements.
result News attention to financial intermediaries and crises drives up the EBP and predicts macroeconomic downturns.

Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.

problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.

Predict stock movement by considering cross effects among stocks.

problem Challenges in predicting stock price movement due to cross effects among stocks.
method Multi-GCGRU framework combining GCN and GRU, encoding cross effects from financial domain knowledge and data-driven relationships.
result Our model outperforms other baselines in predicting stock movement.

A new framework predicts stock movements using news sentiment and relational data.

problem Predicting stock prices from textual information is challenging due to market uncertainty and natural language complexity.
method Multi-Graph Recurrent Network (MGRN) combining textual sentiment from financial news and relational data.
result The model outperforms benchmarks in predicting stock movements.

This study evaluates LLMs for sentiment analysis in stock price prediction.

problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using LLMs for news sentiment analysis.
method Compared 3 LLMs (DeBERTa, RoBERTa, FinBERT) for sentiment-driven stock prediction.
result DeBERTa outperforms other models with 75% accuracy, and ensemble model increases accuracy to 80%.

Mid-price movement prediction based on limit order book (LOB) data is a challenging task due to the complexity and dynamics of the LOB. So far, there have been very limited attempts for extracting relevant features based on LOB data. In this paper, we address this problem by designing a new set of handcrafted features …

2019-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

DanSmp predicts stock movement using a hybrid-relational MKG and dual attention networks.

problem Predicting stock price trends in volatile financial markets.
method Constructs a bi-typed MKG with hybrid-relations and uses DanSmp, a dual attention network, to learn momentum spillover signals.
result DanSmp improves stock prediction accuracy using the MKG.

This paper improves traffic actor movement predictions using GANs and a differentiable rasterizer.

problem Predicting future movements of traffic actors for safe autonomous driving.
method A novel raster-based conditional GAN architecture with a differentiable rasterizer.
result The proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art GAN-based baselines.

Study earnings calls to predict stock price movements, finding them more predictive than traditional data.

problem Improving investment decisions by analyzing earnings calls for stock price predictions.
method Graph Neural Network based approach to process and analyze earnings call transcripts.
result Earnings call transcripts are more predictive of stock price movements than traditional hard data.

PreBit predicts Bitcoin price movements using social media and financial data.

problem Predicting extreme price movements of Bitcoin due to its volatility and speculative trading.
method Hybrid model combining FinBERT embeddings of Twitter content with candlestick data and technical indicators.
result The hybrid model can predict significant market movements with a profitable trading strategy.

Study predicts stock price direction on earnings announcement days using multi-modal deep learning.

problem Predicting stock price movements during earnings announcements is challenging due to market noise and discontinuities.
method Constructed a multi-modal feature space combining fundamental metrics, technical indicators, and sentiment scores from financial news articles. Evaluated LSTM and Transformer models against a baseline.
result Transformer model outperforms LSTM in identifying volatile movements, achieving higher macro F1-score.

MDGNN predicts stock prices by capturing multifaceted relations over time.

problem Challenges in predicting stock prices due to dynamic and intricate relations.
method MDGNN uses a discrete dynamic graph and Transformer structure to capture multifaceted relations and temporal evolution.
result MDGNN achieves the best performance in public datasets compared to SOTA methods.

Ploutos predicts stock movements with financial LLM, improving interpretability.

problem Combining textual and numerical data for stock prediction and lack of interpretability.
method Proposes Ploutos framework combining PloutosGen and PloutosGPT for interpretable predictions.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy and interpretability.