The study establishes lower bounds for testing monotonicity of distributions over posets.
problem Testing monotonicity of distributions over general posets.
method Introducing the bigness property, establishing lower bounds, and providing tools for analyzing sample complexity.
result Lower bounds of Ω(n/ln n) for testing monotonicity over specific posets.
Study online monotone density estimation with expert aggregation and log-optimal calibration.
problem Online monotone density estimation and log-optimal calibration.
method Proposed two online estimators: Grenander estimator and expert aggregation estimator.
result Online estimators achieve O ( n 1 / 3 ) O(n^{1/3}) O ( n 1/3 ) cumulative log-likelihood gap and n log n \sqrt{n\log{n}} n log n pathwise regret bound. New adaptive test for NPIV models controls size and has superior power.
problem Testing inequality and equality restrictions in nonparametric IV models.
method Adaptive hypothesis test based on modified leave-one-out sample quadratic distance.
result Adaptive test attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in L 2 L^{2} L 2 . Near-optimal private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses developed under Gaussian differential privacy.
problem Developing private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses under Gaussian differential privacy.
method A private mean estimator with data-driven clamping bounds, constructing private test statistics.
result Private tests achieve the same asymptotic relative efficiency as non-private most powerful tests.
Kernel-based tests for shape constraints in finance.
problem Enforcing shape relations on latent functions in financial econometrics.
method Kernel-based nonparametric framework for mean-variance optimization.
result Established statistical properties and a joint Wald-type statistic for testing shape constraints.
Monotone adversarial corruptions degrade optimal learning algorithms.
problem Optimal learning algorithms' reliance on exchangeability and independence is challenged.
method Introduces a monotone adversarial corruption model where an adversary adds monotone corruptions to a clean dataset.
result Optimal learning algorithms achieve suboptimal expected error on new test points.
A new method learns proper multiclass losses and probabilities.
problem Learning proper multiclass losses for complex classification tasks.
method Extends monotonicity to multiclass problems using convex functions.
result Consistently outperforms natural multiclass baseline on up to 1,000 class datasets.
Study on MMV in jump-diffusion models resolves MV's non-monotonicity issues.
problem Non-monotonicity and free cash flow stream problems in MV preferences.
method Explicit solution for MMV preferences in jump-diffusion models, proving non-negative potential measures.
result MMV resolves MV's non-monotonicity and free cash flow stream issues.
Sequence-to-sequence models with soft attention have been successfully applied to a wide variety of problems, but their decoding process incurs a quadratic time and space cost and is inapplicable to real-time sequence transduction. To address these issues, we propose Monotonic Chunkwise Attention (MoChA), which adaptiv…
Deep networks show less disorder and more monotonic behavior.
problem Understanding the disorder and monotonicity in deep neural networks.
method Computing frustration and analyzing near-monotonicity in signed graphs of deep networks.
result Deep networks exhibit less disorder and more monotonic behavior than expected.
Optimal regularization can prevent the double descent phenomenon in learning models.
problem The double descent phenomenon in learning models, where test performance is non-monotonic in sample size and model size.
method Theoretical and empirical study of optimal ℓ 2 \ell_2 ℓ 2 regularization for linear regression models and neural networks. result Optimally-tuned ℓ 2 \ell_2 ℓ 2 regularization achieves monotonic test performance for certain models and mitigates the double descent phenomenon for more general models. The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default probabilities ought to present a monotonous function of the ordered rating catego…
Modeling disease progression in brain images using monotonic Gaussian Processes.
problem Disentangling spatio-temporal disease trajectories from brain imaging data.
method Spatio-temporal matrix factorization with anatomically plausible priors, monotonic Gaussian Processes, and sparse codes.
result Monotonic Gaussian Processes model realistic disease trajectories in brain imaging data.
New method identifies causal order without sparsity assumptions.
problem Causal order discovery in observational data.
method Sequential procedure to directly identify causal order.
result Direct identification of causal order without sparsity assumptions.
Avoids resentment in classifier fairness by using monotonic models.
problem Resentment in demographic fairness criteria.
method Monotonic constrained machine learning models.
result Avoids both individual and group resentment.
New insights on bias in multi-armed bandits under conditional sampling.
problem Understanding bias in multi-armed bandits under conditional sampling.
method Characterized the sign of conditional bias of monotone functions of rewards.
result Sign of conditional bias can differ from marginal bias, depending on conditioning events.
New method tackles adversarial sign-corrupted isotonic regression, estimating monotonic signals under heavy dependence.
problem Estimating monotonic signals when responses are sign-corrupted and adversarially designed to violate monotonicity.
method Developed ASCIFIT, a three-step estimation procedure using PAVA with pre- and post-processing corrections.
result Theoretical guarantees of sharp high probability upper bounds and minimax lower bounds for ASCIFIT.
Adversarial training leads to large generalization gap, decomposed into bias and variance.
problem Understanding the large generalization gap in adversarially trained models.
method Bias-Variance decomposition of test risk as a function of adversarial perturbation radius.
result Bias increases monotonically with adversarial perturbation radius and is dominant in test risk.
Study tests whether trade-off functions are above or below benchmarks using finite samples.
problem Testing trade-off functions between unknown distributions.
method Identifies a condition for nontrivial testing, constructs a test with error guarantees, and inverts the test for confidence bands.
result Finite-sample testing is possible under specific structural assumptions about rejection regions.
Study optimal ridge regularization for out-of-distribution prediction.
problem Optimal ridge regularization for predicting out-of-distribution data.
method Established conditions for optimal regularization under covariate and regression shifts, proving monotonic risk in data aspect ratio.
result Negative regularization can be optimal under shifts, even with isotropic or underparameterized training features.
Testing two potentially multivariate variables for statistical dependence on the basis finite samples is a fundamental statistical challenge. Here we explore a family of tests that adapt to the complexity of the relationship between the variables, promising robust power across scenarios. Building on the distance correl…
Study presents MMC model for better fitting multiple choice data.
problem Improving accuracy of latent trait estimates in IRT models.
method Fit autoencoders to MMC model, demonstrating better fit than nominal response model.
result MMC model outperforms traditional IRT models in fit.
Gradient descent dynamics in quadratic regression models are analyzed, revealing five phases: monotonic, catapult, periodic, chaotic, and divergent.
problem Analyzing the dynamics of gradient descent in quadratic regression models.
method Fine-grained bifurcation analysis of gradient descent dynamics using a cubic map parameterized by the step-size.
result Gradient descent dynamics in quadratic regression models exhibit five distinct phases: monotonic, catapult, periodic, chaotic, and divergent.
A faster EM algorithm for unsupervised Gaussian mixture models.
problem Efficiently determining the number of components in Gaussian mixture models.
method Adaptive Anderson Acceleration (AA) for EM algorithm, with novel monotonicity control and covariance matrix preservation.
result Significantly faster convergence compared to non-accelerated EM, up to 60X in some cases.
Two new methods improve monotonic constraint enforcement in regression and classification trees.
problem Improving monotonic constraints in regression and classification trees.
method Proposed two new methods: one yields better results than LightGBM, the other yields even better results but is slower.
result The best method consistently beats the current implementation of LightGBM, achieving up to 1% loss reduction.
All you need is log
problem Comparing multiple probability distributions
method Characterizing multi-distribution Rényi divergences
result Found a canonical multi-distribution Rényi calculus
DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.
problem Inferring causal direction between continuous and discrete variables from observational data.
method Density Ratio-based Causal Discovery (DRCD) method.
result DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.
Deep neural networks can generalize by reducing high-frequency noise over time, not always following a monotonic learning bias.
problem Understanding the learning dynamics and generalization of over-parameterized DNNs.
method Experimental analysis of deep double descent, focusing on the spectral bias of DNNs.
result The high-frequency components of DNNs diminish over training, leading to a second descent in test error.
Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores
problem Identifying test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate
method Membership-score-based conformal selection
result Finite-sample valid null p-values
We propose three measures of mutual dependence between multiple random vectors. All the measures are zero if and only if the random vectors are mutually independent. The first measure generalizes distance covariance from pairwise dependence to mutual dependence, while the other two measures are sums of squared distance…
Tseytlin has recently proposed that an action functional exists whose gradient generates to all orders in perturbation theory the Renormalization Group (RG) flow of the target space metric in the worldsheet sigma model. The gradient is defined with respect to a metric on the space of coupling constants which is explici…
The paper addresses monotonicity in machine learning models for fairness and accountability.
problem Ensuring fairness and accountability in transparent machine learning models.
method Study of three types of monotonicity (individual, weak pairwise, strong pairwise) and propose monotonic groves of neural additive models.
result Monotonic groves of neural additive models maintain transparency, accountability, and fairness.
We consider the problem of undirected graphical model inference. In many applications, instead of perfectly recovering the unknown graph structure, a more realistic goal is to infer some graph invariants (e.g., the maximum degree, the number of connected subgraphs, the number of isolated nodes). In this paper, we propo…
This paper explores the information-theoretic limitations of graph property testing in zero-field Ising models. Instead of learning the entire graph structure, sometimes testing a basic graph property such as connectivity, cycle presence or maximum clique size is a more relevant and attainable objective. Since property…
The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.
problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.
The paper tackles non-monotonic learning performance and proposes algorithms to make models more monotone.
problem Non-monotonic learning performance where more data does not always improve model quality.
method Proposes three algorithms to make supervised learning models more monotone, proving consistency and monotonicity with high probability.
result The algorithm MT-HT reduces less than 1% non-monotonic decisions on MNIST while maintaining competitive error rates.
ECCIT improves conditional independence tests by calibrating for miscalibration.
problem Inaccurate frequentist guarantees in CITs, especially in small samples and misspecified models.
method Empirically Calibrated Conditional Independence Tests (ECCIT) that optimize and correct for miscalibration.
result ECCIT achieves valid FDR with higher power than existing calibration strategies.
In financial time series there are periods in which the value increases or decreases monotonically. We call those periods elemental trends and study the probability distribution of their duration for the indices DJIA, NASDAQ and IPC. It is found that the trend duration distribution often differs from the one expected u…
Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
problem Estimating conditional mean functions for binary outcomes with monotonicity constraints.
method Proposes a new BART variant that incorporates monotonicity constraints for binary outcomes.
result Allows for more precise estimation of monotonic functions in binary outcome models.
The paper proposes a method to align AI models using conformal risk control.
problem Aligning AI models to meet end-user requirements in non-generative settings.
method Post-processing a pre-trained model to better align with a subset of functions using conformal risk control.
result A probabilistic guarantee that the resulting conformal interval around a model contains a function approximately satisfying a desired property.
Monotone neural networks can approximate and interpolate functions efficiently.
problem Understanding the efficiency and expressiveness of monotone neural networks.
method Solving the monotone interpolation problem using depth-4 networks and comparing size bounds with arbitrary networks.
result Monotone neural networks can approximate and interpolate functions efficiently, but may require exponential size in high dimensions.
This work uses ANOVA to understand how different factors contribute to test error in machine learning models.
problem Understanding why overparametrized models generalize well despite potentially fitting noise.
method Analysis of variance (ANOVA) to decompose test error into components of variance.
result The interaction between training samples and initialization can dominate variance, and there are phase transitions in variance behavior.
Improves k-NN for monotonic data with robustness against noise.
problem Class noise in real-life data violates monotonic constraints in k-NN.
method Monotonic Fuzzy k-NN (MonFkNN) with new fuzzy membership calculation.
result Significant accuracy improvements and robustness against monotonic noise.
Framework for online resource allocation using social welfare functions.
problem Optimal allocation of resources over time steps in a population.
method Confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF.
result Achieves near-optimal regret of i l d e O ( n + n k T ) ilde{O}(n+\sqrt{nkT}) i l d e O ( n + nk T ) for SWF-agnostic algorithm SWF-UCB. A new family of multi-distribution divergences is characterized for fairness and other problems.
problem Comparing more than two probability distributions in a consistent way.
method Characterized a new family of multi-way coincidence divergences.
result The new family of multi-distribution Rényi divergences is necessary and arises from several independent routes.
EXAGREE selects a stakeholder-aligned model to reduce conflicting explanations in machine learning.
problem Conflicting explanations from different attribution methods limit the adoption of machine learning models in safety-critical domains.
method EXAGREE is a two-stage framework that selects a Stakeholder-Aligned Explanation Model (SAEM) from a set of similar-performing models, maximizing Stakeholder-Machine Agreement (SMA).
result EXAGREE achieves simultaneous gains in faithfulness, plausibility, and fairness over baselines while preserving task accuracy.
Over-parameterized CNNs show U-shaped test risk with depth increase.
problem Understanding the impact of depth on test risk in over-parameterized CNNs.
method Empirical image classification experiments and linear regression framework.
result Test risk is U-shaped with increasing depth in over-parameterized CNNs.
Study examines explainable machine learning for monotonic models, finding Integrated gradients better for strong monotonicity.
problem Applying explainable machine learning to science-informed models.
method Proposed axioms for monotonicity, tested Shapley value and Integrated gradients methods.
result Integrated gradients provides better explanations for strong monotonicity.