Optimizes profit in targeted marketing across multiple markets with varying marketing expenditures.
problem Maximizing profit in a sequential marketing strategy with multiple markets and varying marketing costs.
method Near-optimal algorithms in an adversarial bandit setting, proving regret bounds for different demand curve types.
result Proved near-optimal regret bounds for the profit-maximization problem in targeted marketing.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
problem Investigates non-monotonicity in Value of Information for a price-setting monopolist.
method Uses a Bayesian inverse problem with Kalman-Bucy-Stratonovich filter in a dynamic discrete model.
result Non-monotonic relationship between signal variance and Value of Information.
The study examines when large trades are considered news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
problem Understanding when large trades are news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
method A sequential competitive limit order book model with asymmetric information and Student-t tails for liquidity demand.
result Heavy-tailed liquidity demand flattens and concavifies price impact, delaying price discovery.
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Develops methods for dynamic pricing in incomplete data settings.
problem Incomplete historical data makes optimal pricing difficult.
method Nonparametric partial identification framework for offline dynamic pricing.
result Pessimistic and opportunistic policies with regret bounds.
New adaptive test for NPIV models controls size and has superior power.
problem Testing inequality and equality restrictions in nonparametric IV models.
method Adaptive hypothesis test based on modified leave-one-out sample quadratic distance.
result Adaptive test attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in L2. The paper studies price impacts in asset liquidation markets.
problem Understanding price impacts in asset liquidation markets.
method Equilibrium formulation and analysis of price impacts.
result Existence and uniqueness of clearing prices for portfolio liquidation.
In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal …
RPO uses past and future state-action info for better policy optimization.
problem Sample inefficiency in on-policy reinforcement learning methods.
method Reflective Policy Optimization (RPO) integrates past and future state-action info for policy improvement.
result RPO improves policy performance and contracts the solution space, leading to faster convergence.
Study analyzes how discounts affect train ticket purchases and rescheduling in Switzerland.
problem Understanding how discounts influence train ticket buying and rescheduling behavior.
method Machine learning techniques, including causal machine learning, to analyze survey data.
result Increasing a discount rate by 1% increases the rescheduled trip share by 0.16% among always buyers.
The paper addresses monotonicity in machine learning models for fairness and accountability.
problem Ensuring fairness and accountability in transparent machine learning models.
method Study of three types of monotonicity (individual, weak pairwise, strong pairwise) and propose monotonic groves of neural additive models.
result Monotonic groves of neural additive models maintain transparency, accountability, and fairness.
Trend and Value are pervasive anomalies, common to all financial markets. We address the problem of their co-existence and interaction within the framework of Heterogeneous Agent Based Models (HABM). More specifically, we extend the Chiarella (1992) model by adding noise traders and a non-linear demand of fundamentalis…
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
Modeling shared mobility demand considering supply limitations.
problem Inaccurate demand predictions due to limited supply.
method Censored Gaussian Processes for demand modeling.
result Taking supply limitations into account improves demand predictions.
The paper tackles non-monotonic learning performance and proposes algorithms to make models more monotone.
problem Non-monotonic learning performance where more data does not always improve model quality.
method Proposes three algorithms to make supervised learning models more monotone, proving consistency and monotonicity with high probability.
result The algorithm MT-HT reduces less than 1% non-monotonic decisions on MNIST while maintaining competitive error rates.
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
problem Challenges in inferring true demand from aggregate, censored data.
method Combines Tobit likelihood with graph diffusion process in Gaussian Processes.
result The new model produces more accurate out-of-sample predictions.
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is the problem of learning the preferences of an agent from the observations of its behavior on a task. While this problem has been well investigated, the related problem of {\em online} IRL---where the observations are incrementally accrued, yet the demands of the application often…
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
problem Estimating conditional mean functions for binary outcomes with monotonicity constraints.
method Proposes a new BART variant that incorporates monotonicity constraints for binary outcomes.
result Allows for more precise estimation of monotonic functions in binary outcome models.
Monotone neural networks can approximate and interpolate functions efficiently.
problem Understanding the efficiency and expressiveness of monotone neural networks.
method Solving the monotone interpolation problem using depth-4 networks and comparing size bounds with arbitrary networks.
result Monotone neural networks can approximate and interpolate functions efficiently, but may require exponential size in high dimensions.
Improves k-NN for monotonic data with robustness against noise.
problem Class noise in real-life data violates monotonic constraints in k-NN.
method Monotonic Fuzzy k-NN (MonFkNN) with new fuzzy membership calculation.
result Significant accuracy improvements and robustness against monotonic noise.
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
problem Cross-modal ripple effects in urban transportation demand.
method Transfer learning and stacked LSTM models for cross-modal demand prediction.
result Transfer learning models outperform unimodal models in cross-modal demand prediction.
Study examines explainable machine learning for monotonic models, finding Integrated gradients better for strong monotonicity.
problem Applying explainable machine learning to science-informed models.
method Proposed axioms for monotonicity, tested Shapley value and Integrated gradients methods.
result Integrated gradients provides better explanations for strong monotonicity.
A new metric optimizes forecasts for lumpy, intermittent demand.
problem Inaccurate demand forecasts lead to suboptimal logistics and production.
method Developed a novel metric that considers both statistical and business aspects.
result The new metric yields more accurate predictions for lumpy and intermittent demand.
Paper develops deep models for forecasting intermittent demand.
problem Forecasting intermittent demand with sporadic occurrences.
method Uses deep neural networks to model conditional interdemand time and size distributions.
result Empirical validation of deep models for intermittent demand forecasting.
Formula proves monotonicity for anisotropic minimal hypersurfaces.
problem Understanding anisotropic minimal hypersurfaces.
method Proved a monotonicity formula under a sign assumption on the Minkowski norm.
result Monotonicity formula for anisotropic minimal hypersurfaces.
The paper develops algorithms to restore monotonicity in non-monotone functions.
problem Non-monotone solutions from heuristic algorithms need to be corrected.
method Develops algorithms to restore monotonicity with limited queries.
result Restores monotonicity while degrading the function value by at most ε.
New example of manifolds with monotonic heat kernels found.
problem Understanding monotonicity of heat kernels on manifolds.
method Analyzing new examples and classifying flat tori.
result Generic metrics fail monotonicity at large times.
Statistical arbitrageurs have inelastic demand, contrary to classical models.
problem Understanding the demand elasticity of statistical arbitrageurs.
method Thirteen models from the literature and a quantitative equilibrium model.
result Aggregate demand remains inelastic even with statistical arbitrageurs.
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) factorizes a non-negative matrix into product of two non-negative matrices, namely a signal matrix and a mixing matrix. NMF suffers from the scale and ordering ambiguities. Often, the source signals can be monotonous in nature. For example, in source separation problem, the source…
In [S. Basu, A. Gabrielov, N. Vorobjov, Semi-monotone sets. arXiv:1004.5047v2 (2011)] we defined semi-monotone sets, as open bounded sets, definable in an o-minimal structure over the reals, and having connected intersections with all translated coordinate cones in R^n. In this paper we develop this theory further by d…
COMET learns monotonic neural networks by incorporating counterexamples.
problem Enforcing monotonicity constraints in neural networks for real-world tasks.
method Counterexample-guided learning technique for ReLU neural networks.
result COMET achieves state-of-the-art results and improves model quality.
Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the nature of the tail of the distribution based on the randomness in the supply and…
Monotonic differentiable sorting networks improve upon previous methods.
problem Non-monotonicity in differentiable sorting networks.
method Relaxation of conditional swap operations using sigmoid functions to ensure monotonicity.
result Monotonic differentiable sorting networks improve upon previous methods.
We prove three new monotonicity formulas for manifolds with a lower Ricci curvature bound and show that they are connected to rate of convergence to tangent cones. In fact, we show that the derivative of each of these three monotone quantities is bounded from below in terms of the Gromov-Hausdorff distance to the neare…
Proves monotonicity of parabolic frequency on all manifolds without curvature assumptions.
problem Monotonicity of parabolic frequency on manifolds.
method Analyzes parabolic frequency function on manifolds, proving monotonicity without curvature assumptions.
result Monotonicity of parabolic frequency on all manifolds, no curvature assumption needed.
Paper introduces algorithms for explaining monotonic classifiers.
problem Need for explanations of monotonic classifiers.
method Polynomial algorithms for formal explanations of monotonic classifiers.
result Efficient model-agnostic algorithm for enumerating explanations.
Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is high-dimensional and our priors are weak about which particular covariates are important. How…
Recommending the right products is the central problem in recommender systems, but the right products should also be recommended at the right time to meet the demands of users, so as to maximize their values. Users' demands, implying strong purchase intents, can be the most useful way to promote products sales if well …
Develops monotone tree-based GAMI models using XGBoost.
problem Incorporating monotonicity into GAMI models based on boosted trees.
method Adapting XGBoost algorithm to fit monotone GAMI-Tree models, filtering interactions, and parsing results.
result Fits monotone GAMI-Tree models that are directly interpretable and visualizable.
The paper evaluates the importance of monotonicity in AI fairness across various fields.
problem Ensuring fairness in AI applications across criminology, education, health care, and finance.
method Theoretical reasoning, simulation, and extensive empirical analysis of monotonic neural additive models (MNAMs).
result Monotonicity is essential for fairness in AI ethics and society, especially in criminology, education, health care, and finance.
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
problem Accurate hourly forecasting of residential heating and electricity demand.
method Probabilistic deep learning models trained on gas-heated region data.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to NREL's ResStock model.
Two neural network models analyze bus system efficiency and demand.
problem Identify service gaps and quantify demand in public transportation.
method Two neural network models considering demographic data and metrics.
result Models can generalize to other cities' bus systems.
We introduce large scale analogues of topological monotone and light maps, which we call coarsely monotone and coarsely light maps respectively. We show that these two classes of maps constitute a factorization system on the coarse category. We also show how coarsely monotone maps arise from a reflection in a similar w…
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decom…
Study on biharmonic map heat flow with monotonicity formula.
problem Properties of biharmonic heat kernel and extrinsic biharmonic map heat flow.
method Derived an entropy type quantity exhibiting monotonicity behaviors.
result Monotonicity formula for extrinsic biharmonic map heat flow.
Proposes a new model for more accurate demand forecasting considering dynamic contextual information.
problem Traditional methods fail to capture spatio-temporal and dynamic contextual dependencies in demand forecasting.
method Integrates temporal, relational, spatial, and dynamic contextual dependencies using a Context Integrated Graph Neural Network (CIGNN).
result CIGNN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in multi-step ahead demand forecasting.
A local monotonicity formula for the Yang-Mills-Higgs flow on G-bundles over Rn (n>4) is proved. It is shown that the monotone quantity coïncides on certain self-similar solutions with that appearing in existing non-local monotonicity formulæ for the Yang-Mills and Yang-Mills-Higgs flows.