A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes profit in targeted marketing across multiple markets with varying marketing expenditures.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
The study examines when large trades are considered news or liquidity shocks in a market model.
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Develops methods for dynamic pricing in incomplete data settings.
New adaptive test for NPIV models controls size and has superior power.
The paper studies price impacts in asset liquidation markets.
In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal …
RPO uses past and future state-action info for better policy optimization.
Study analyzes how discounts affect train ticket purchases and rescheduling in Switzerland.
The paper addresses monotonicity in machine learning models for fairness and accountability.
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
Trend and Value are pervasive anomalies, common to all financial markets. We address the problem of their co-existence and interaction within the framework of Heterogeneous Agent Based Models (HABM). More specifically, we extend the Chiarella (1992) model by adding noise traders and a non-linear demand of fundamentalis…
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is the problem of learning the preferences of an agent from the observations of its behavior on a task. While this problem has been well investigated, the related problem of {\em online} IRL---where the observations are incrementally accrued, yet the demands of the application often…
Monotone neural networks can approximate and interpolate functions efficiently.
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly…
Improves k-NN for monotonic data with robustness against noise.
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
Study examines explainable machine learning for monotonic models, finding Integrated gradients better for strong monotonicity.
A new metric optimizes forecasts for lumpy, intermittent demand.
Formula proves monotonicity for anisotropic minimal hypersurfaces.
New example of manifolds with monotonic heat kernels found.
Learning performance can show non-monotonic behavior. That is, more data does not necessarily lead to better models, even on average. We propose three algorithms that take a supervised learning model and make it perform more monotone. We prove consistency and monotonicity with high probability, and evaluate the algorit…
The paper develops algorithms to restore monotonicity in non-monotone functions.
Statistical arbitrageurs have inelastic demand, contrary to classical models.
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) factorizes a non-negative matrix into product of two non-negative matrices, namely a signal matrix and a mixing matrix. NMF suffers from the scale and ordering ambiguities. Often, the source signals can be monotonous in nature. For example, in source separation problem, the source…
In [S. Basu, A. Gabrielov, N. Vorobjov, Semi-monotone sets. arXiv:1004.5047v2 (2011)] we defined semi-monotone sets, as open bounded sets, definable in an o-minimal structure over the reals, and having connected intersections with all translated coordinate cones in R^n. In this paper we develop this theory further by d…
COMET learns monotonic neural networks by incorporating counterexamples.
Implementing a set of microeconomic criteria, we develop price dynamics equations using a function of demand/supply with key symmetry properties. The function of demand/supply can be linear or nonlinear. The type of function determines the nature of the tail of the distribution based on the randomness in the supply and…
Monotonic differentiable sorting networks improve upon previous methods.
We prove three new monotonicity formulas for manifolds with a lower Ricci curvature bound and show that they are connected to rate of convergence to tangent cones. In fact, we show that the derivative of each of these three monotone quantities is bounded from below in terms of the Gromov-Hausdorff distance to the neare…
Paper introduces algorithms for explaining monotonic classifiers.
Develops monotone tree-based GAMI models using XGBoost.
The paper evaluates the importance of monotonicity in AI fairness across various fields.
Recommending the right products is the central problem in recommender systems, but the right products should also be recommended at the right time to meet the demands of users, so as to maximize their values. Users' demands, implying strong purchase intents, can be the most useful way to promote products sales if well …
Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is high-dimensional and our priors are weak about which particular covariates are important. How…
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
Two neural network models analyze bus system efficiency and demand.
We introduce large scale analogues of topological monotone and light maps, which we call coarsely monotone and coarsely light maps respectively. We show that these two classes of maps constitute a factorization system on the coarse category. We also show how coarsely monotone maps arise from a reflection in a similar w…
Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decom…
Study on biharmonic map heat flow with monotonicity formula.
A local monotonicity formula for the Yang-Mills-Higgs flow on -bundles over () is proved. It is shown that the monotone quantity coïncides on certain self-similar solutions with that appearing in existing non-local monotonicity formulæ for the Yang-Mills and Yang-Mills-Higgs flows.
Intermittent demand, where demand occurrences appear sporadically in time, is a common and challenging problem in forecasting. In this paper, we first make the connections between renewal processes, and a collection of current models used for intermittent demand forecasting. We then develop a set of models that benefit…
Proposes a new model for more accurate demand forecasting considering dynamic contextual information.
This paper benchmarks monotone-constrained models for credit PD across datasets and finds constraints are mostly costless.