A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Efficient algorithms find optimal monotone transforms for calibration under strictly convex losses.
problem Calibrating estimations to improve performance with monotone transforms.
method Proposed linear-time and space algorithm for finding optimal monotone transforms for specific loss functions. Also proposed an anytime algorithm with linear space and pseudo-linearithmic time complexity.
result Optimal monotone transforms are unique and can be found efficiently for various strictly convex loss functions.
The paper examines the unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives in large portfolios.
problem Understanding the unexpected losses and risk ratios for large portfolios with co-monotonic alternatives.
method Analyzes the asymptotic behavior of unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives using monotone cash-additive risk measures and Choquet insurance premia.
result Unexpected losses of large weighted portfolios are of order o(nλn), where λn is the average weight.
Extends conformal prediction for controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
problem Controlling expected risk of monotone loss functions.
method Generalizes split conformal prediction with coverage guarantee, extending to distribution shift, quantile risk, multiple, adversarial, and expectations of U-statistics.
result Tight up to an O(1/n) factor, with worked examples in computer vision and natural language processing.
Gradient descent on neural nets often operates at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is complex but loss decreases over time.
problem Understanding the optimization dynamics of neural networks at the Edge of Stability.
method Empirical demonstration of gradient descent behavior in neural network training.
result Gradient descent on neural networks typically occurs at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is non-monotonic but loss decreases over time.
This paper benchmarks monotone-constrained models for credit PD across datasets and finds constraints are mostly costless.
problem Aligning machine learning model behavior with domain knowledge in credit risk.
method Benchmarked monotone-constrained versus unconstrained gradient boosting models across five datasets and three libraries, defining the Price of Monotonicity (PoM) as the relative change in AUC.
result Monotonicity constraints are almost costless on large datasets and most costly on smaller datasets, with PoM ranging from essentially zero to about 2.9 percent.
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is a central tool in machine learning. We prove that SGD converges to zero loss, even with a fixed (non-vanishing) learning rate - in the special case of homogeneous linear classifiers with smooth monotone loss functions, optimized on linearly separable data. Previous works assumed eit…
Curriculum Learning - the idea of teaching by gradually exposing the learner to examples in a meaningful order, from easy to hard, has been investigated in the context of machine learning long ago. Although methods based on this concept have been empirically shown to improve performance of several learning algorithms, …
The information dynamics in finance and insurance applications is usually modeled by a filtration. This paper looks at situations where information restrictions apply such that the information dynamics may become non-monotone. A fundamental tool for calculating and managing risks in finance and insurance are martingale…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have great expressive power, which can even memorize samples with wrong labels. It is vitally important to reiterate robustness and generalization in DNNs against label corruption. To this end, this paper studies the 0-1 loss, which has a monotonic relationship with an empirical adversary (r…
We examine gradient descent on unregularized logistic regression problems, with homogeneous linear predictors on linearly separable datasets. We show the predictor converges to the direction of the max-margin (hard margin SVM) solution. The result also generalizes to other monotone decreasing loss functions with an inf…
Given two networks with the same training loss on a dataset, when would they have drastically different test losses and errors? Better understanding of this question of generalization may improve practical applications of deep networks. In this paper we show that with cross-entropy loss it is surprisingly simple to ind…
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit risk, for instance, where joint defaults are a major cause of concern. Often, the d…
We provide a detailed study on the implicit bias of gradient descent when optimizing loss functions with strictly monotone tails, such as the logistic loss, over separable datasets. We look at two basic questions: (a) what are the conditions on the tail of the loss function under which gradient descent converges in the…
This paper considers a cross-layer adaptive modulation system that is modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). We study how to utilize the monotonicity of the optimal transmission policy to relieve the computational complexity of dynamic programming (DP). In this system, a scheduler controls the bit rate of the m-qu…