A monitoring procedure improves machine learning forecasts for digital platforms.
problem Maintaining accurate and stable forecasts for data streams at digital platforms.
method Developed a monitoring procedure to determine when to retrain machine learning algorithms.
result Monitor-based retraining produces accurate forecasts compared to benchmarks.
Develops a monitoring procedure to detect changes in large approximate factor models.
problem Detecting structural changes in large approximate factor models.
method Randomises the test statistic to create a sequence of i.i.d. statistics for monitoring changes.
result Very small probability of false detections and tight detection times of change-points.
Online surveillance detects systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting and monitoring systemic risk in financial markets.
method Online monitoring procedures for multiple series, controlling for false rejections.
result Procedures allow timely detection of financial distress.
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.
Proposes real-time risk monitoring for machine learning systems under unknown shifts.
problem Dynamic distribution shifts challenge real-world machine learning systems' risk assurances.
method Sequential hypothesis testing with 'testing by betting' to detect risk violations.
result Effective real-time risk monitoring under various unknown shifts.
Adaptive activity monitoring framework for wearable sensors.
problem Efficiently monitor human activities with low power consumption.
method Switching Gaussian process model with block circulant embedding and FFT for inference.
result Optimized trade-off between sensor power consumption and prediction performance.
A registration-free framework monitors shape and color in 4D point clouds.
problem Monitoring shape and color changes in complex parts without registration.
method Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties for geometric and color feature capture; combined monitoring scheme for shape and color anomalies.
result Effective detection of shape deformations and color anomalies without registration or mesh reconstruction.
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
This research tackles monitoring machine learning algorithms post-deployment, addressing performativity issues.
problem Monitoring machine learning algorithms after deployment, especially when they affect their own data-generating process.
method Uses causal inference techniques to navigate performativity and compares different monitoring criteria and data sources.
result Different monitoring systems have varying operating characteristics and implications for ML monitoring design.
Bayesian method estimates Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive processes.
problem Estimating Kronecker graphical models from autoregressive Gaussian processes.
method Bayesian approach to estimate Kronecker graphical models.
result Effectiveness demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data application.
Modified PCA algorithm with continual learning preserves features of previous modes for multimode process monitoring.
problem Catastrophic forgetting of previous modes in monitoring models for successive modes.
method Modified PCA algorithm with elastic weight consolidation (EWC) to preserve features of previous modes.
result PCA-EWC algorithm effectively monitors multimode processes without performance decrease.
Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
Improved online classification for manual material handling using wearable sensors.
problem Online monitoring of manual material handling activities using wearable sensors.
method Optimizes dictionary learning to improve sparse representation classification (SRC) accuracy and computational efficiency.
result Proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in accuracy and computational time for online monitoring.
We develop a mixture procedure for multi-sensor systems to monitor data streams for a change-point that causes a gradual degradation to a subset of the streams. Observations are assumed to be initially normal random variables with known constant means and variances. After the change-point, observations in the subset wi…
The paper improves neural network predictions by integrating process knowledge.
problem Improving neural network predictions for process execution data.
method Integrates background process knowledge into neural networks with attention mechanisms.
result Improves prediction accuracy for process execution data.
Detecting aggressive cancer tumors using ctDNA dynamics from few blood samples.
problem Early multi-cancer detection using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels.
method Combines continuous time Markov modelling and Signature theory for efficient testing procedures.
result Correctly addresses the challenge of data scarcity in cancer monitoring.
Procedure confirms covariate balance anytime from unlabeled data.
problem Ensuring covariate balance in sequential data.
method Time-uniform confidence sequences for continuous monitoring.
result Probability of false confirmation controlled.
New method uses Markov chains for cost-optimal healthcare monitoring.
problem Optimizing healthcare monitoring protocols for patient health characteristics.
method Adapts Markov chain approach to account for random shift sizes, repairs, and time intervals.
result Optimal parameters can differ from traditional medical protocols, showing new insights.
A novel bootstrap method improves concept drift detection in predictive models.
problem Detecting changes in predictive relationships (concept drift) in data-driven applications.
method Developed a nested bootstrap procedure to calibrate control limits using the entire initial sample.
result The method yields more accurate baseline models and faster CL setup times.
DeepPhase uses deep learning to recognize surgical phases in cataract surgery videos.
problem Automating surgical workflow analysis for better standardization and post-surgical assessment.
method Deep learning for instrument detection and phase classification in cataract surgery videos.
result DeepPhase models achieve 99% accuracy in instrument detection and 78% in phase recognition.
A new method detects sparse changes in high-dimensional data streams using tailored PCA projections.
problem Detecting sparse changes in high-dimensional data streams.
method Tailored PCA projections for online change detection.
result High efficiency in detecting even very sparse changes in mean, variance, and correlation.
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a multiplicative stochastic evolution, using Wishart and singular multivariate beta distribu…
AI systems that explain their decisions can be monitored for harmful intentions.
problem Monitoring AI systems' decision-making processes for harmful intentions is imperfect and can miss some misbehavior.
method Monitoring the chain of thought (CoT) of AI systems that communicate in human language.
result CoT monitoring is a promising but fragile approach to AI safety.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
problem Lack of credibility intervals in existing estimates.
method Combines Langevin Monte Carlo with Proximal operators.
result Produces credible intervals for reproduction number estimates.
Graph neural networks improve equipment health monitoring from multisensor data.
problem Leveraging complex machinery structure for condition-based maintenance.
method Captured machinery structure as a graph and used graph neural networks (GNNs) to model time-series data.
result GNN-based RUL estimation model outperforms RNNs and CNNs on turbofan engine benchmark.
Develops an anytime-valid framework for optimal policy identification from logged contextual bandit data.
problem Selecting the optimal policy from a candidate policy class while monitoring evidence continuously.
method Constructs a time-indexed set that retains the true optimal policy set uniformly over time.
result The procedure allows the analyst to monitor policy values, eliminate clearly suboptimal policies, and stop at data-dependent times without invalidating inference.
Novel hybrid bilinear model improves epilepsy diagnosis accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in epilepsy diagnosis and treatment.
method Hybrid bilinear deep learning network using sEEG and audiovisual monitoring.
result Obtained F1-scores of 97.4% and 97.2% on two seizure datasets.
Study detects spoofing in high-frequency trading using micro-structural analysis.
problem Challenges in detecting spoofing due to complex electronic platforms and high-frequency trading.
method Micro-structural study in a simplified setting, optimization of spoofing strategy, monitoring with Wasserstein distance.
result Optimal spoofing strategy and its impact on market imbalance quantified.
Shapelet transform improves time series classification for earthquake, wind, and wave events.
problem Autonomous detection of specific events from large time series datasets in civil engineering.
method Shapelet transform for local similarity in time series subsequences, combined with machine learning.
result Shapelet transform yields a new feature representation for time series signals in civil engineering.
There are no known exact formulas for the valuation of a number of exotic options, and this is particularly true for options under discrete monitoring and for American style options. Therefore, one usually recourses to a Monte Carlo Simulation approach, amongst other numerical methods, to estimate the value of these op…
VSCOUT detects anomalies in high-dimensional data using a hybrid VAE approach.
problem Challenges in classical SPC for high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data.
method Hybrid VAE architecture with ARD prior, ensemble filtering, and changepoint detection.
result VSCOUT achieves superior sensitivity to special-cause structure and controlled false alarms.
Simple online monitor detects unsafe LLM outputs.
problem LLMs generate unsafe outputs despite training.
method Thresholding external verifier signal to decide alarms.
result Simple design competitive with advanced methods.
New numerical method for pricing barrier options with continuous monitoring.
problem Pricing barrier options with continuous monitoring of underlying asset.
method Developed a numerical scheme to calculate fluctuation identities for exponential Lévy processes.
result Error analysis shows continuous monitoring limits discretely monitored scheme's accuracy.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
Tensor analysis improves structural health monitoring of complex aerospace systems.
problem Highly redundant and correlated sensor data in structural health monitoring.
method Tensor-based learning for multi-way structural data analysis.
result Tensor-based approach successfully detects damage in aeroservoelastic models.
PITMonitor monitors model calibration over time with formal error guarantees.
problem Fixed-sample tests applied to models over time can lead to false alarms.
method PITMonitor uses mixture e-processes to detect distributional shifts in probability integral transforms.
result PITMonitor achieves competitive detection rates on river's FriedmanDrift benchmark.
The paper adds explanation to predictive process monitoring.
problem Equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities.
method Used game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations.
result First time explanations given in predictive business process monitoring.
A new method monitors unstructured 3D shapes without registration.
problem Error-prone registration and mesh reconstruction steps in PCD monitoring.
method Intrinsic geometric properties of shapes, using Laplacian and geodesic distances.
result Effective monitoring of defects without registration and mesh reconstruction.
IDS algorithm optimizes sequential decisions in various monitoring settings.
problem Optimizing sequential decisions in complex monitoring scenarios.
method Information-directed sampling (IDS) algorithm for linear partial monitoring.
result IDS achieves nearly worst-case rate optimality in finite-action games.
Focuses on monitoring and explaining models in real-world applications.
problem Ensuring high quality machine learning services in production environments.
method Statistical techniques for model performance and data monitoring, explanations of predictions.
result Challenges and solutions for implementing monitoring and explanation in production models.
Runtime neuron activation monitoring warns of decisions not supported by training data.
problem Ensuring neural network decisions are backed by training data in safety-critical applications.
method Create a monitor by storing neuron activation patterns from training data. In operation, compare new inputs to monitor for similar patterns.
result Monitors can detect a significant portion of misclassifications not supported by training data with a low false-positive rate.
Surveying low-cost sensors for air quality monitoring and calibration.
problem Limited spatial resolution due to expensive environmental monitoring stations.
method Low-cost sensors with machine learning for calibration.
result Machine learning improves sensor accuracy over time.
Neural system optimizes glucose levels in diabetics.
problem Limited research on continuous glucose maintenance devices.
method Differential predictive control with neural policy and differentiable modeling.
result Improves glucose level optimization in real-time.
Optimal probing framework for scalable network monitoring.
problem Efficiently monitor growing cloud networks with limited budgets.
method A- and E-optimal experimental designs, Frank-Wolfe algorithm approximations.
result Significant reduction in probing budget with low estimation errors.
The paper proposes a method to create efficient remote monitoring models.
problem Large and complex machine learning models are unsuitable for remote monitoring on edge devices.
method Decompose the model into a simple local monitoring function and a complex correction term evaluated on the server.
result The proposed framework learns monitoring models with significantly reduced complexity that maintain safety.
New CUSUM method detects changes in Hawkes networks efficiently.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks.
method Efficient online recursive implementation of CUSUM statistic.
result Proposed CUSUM method outperforms existing methods.
Unsupervised methods detect faults in industrial systems with limited data.
problem Challenges in training data-driven fault detection models with scarce or unavailable data.
method Proposes five approaches: baseline, incremental learning, fleet comparison, and UFAN.
result UFAN outperforms other methods in detecting faults in dissimilar units.
Risk monitoring detects when TTA models degrade at test time.
problem Detecting when TTA models degrade at test time.
method Extended risk monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of TTA monitoring framework across various datasets and methods.