A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider an impulse control problem in infinite horizon applied with switching technology. We suppose that the firm decides at certain moments (impulse moments) to switch technology, leading to a jump of the firm value. We show that the value function for such problems satisfies a dynamic programming principle versi…
New algorithm for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with natural policy gradients.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with downside risk constraints.
method Introduce a new Bellman equation to estimate the lower partial moment of returns, use natural policy gradients, and extend Reward Constrained Policy Optimization.
result Sample-efficient estimation of partial moments and effective risk-sensitive control.
We prove explicit upper and lower bounds for the L1-moment spectra for the Brownian motion exit time from extrinsic metric balls of submanifolds Pm in ambient Riemannian spaces Nn. We assume that P and N both have controlled radial curvatures (mean curvature and sectional curvature, respectively) as view…
We develop DTs for PDE models using KL-NN and TL, analyzing TL's moment equations and one-shot learning for exactness.
problem Creating accurate digital twins for systems governed by PDEs under changing conditions.
method We use KL-NN surrogate models and transfer learning to construct DTs, analyzing the moment equations and proposing one-shot and few-shot learning methods.
result For linear PDEs, one-shot TL is exact; for nonlinear PDEs, some parameters can be transferred with minimal error.
Optimal control of reserve assets for stablecoins to maintain peg stability.
problem Balancing immediate liquidity and yield on reserve assets for stablecoin peg maintenance.
method Developed a stochastic model predictive control framework with moment closure for event intensities, incorporating a soft-thresholding structure for rebalancing.
result Optimal policy shifts predictably toward cash as expected outflows intensify or windows lengthen, preserving most bill carry in calm markets and quickly building cash during stress.
Paper tackles online control of linear systems with unbounded noise.
problem Online control of linear systems under unbounded noise with unknown convex cost functions.
method Developed an algorithm achieving ildeO(T) high-probability regret under unbounded noise, and established O(mpoly(logT)) regret bound for strongly convex costs and sub-Gaussian noise.
result Achieved ildeO(T) high-probability regret under unbounded noise, and O(mpoly(logT)) regret bound for specific noise and cost conditions.
Instrumental variable analysis is a powerful tool for estimating causal effects when randomization or full control of confounders is not possible. The application of standard methods such as 2SLS, GMM, and more recent variants are significantly impeded when the causal effects are complex, the instruments are high-dimen…
A moment constraint that limits the number of dividends in the optimal dividend problem is suggested. This leads to a new type of time-inconsistent stochastic impulse control problem. First, the optimal solution in the precommitment sense is derived. Second, the problem is formulated as an intrapersonal sequential dyna…
New bounds on generalization error using information density moments.
problem Bounding the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms.
method Derives bounds on average and tail probabilities of generalization error using mth central moments of the information density.
result Explicit bounds on generalization error are derived, showing better dependence on confidence level with higher-order information density moments.
We describe a general framework -- compressive statistical learning -- for resource-efficient large-scale learning: the training collection is compressed in one pass into a low-dimensional sketch (a vector of random empirical generalized moments) that captures the information relevant to the considered learning task. A…
This paper analyzes and improves the effectiveness of BN techniques in controlling Internal Covariate Shift.
problem The effectiveness of BN techniques in reducing Internal Covariate Shift (ICS) is limited, especially for high-dimensional outputs and noise.
method The paper introduces a measure for ICS using the Earth Mover (EM) distance, derives bounds for this measure, and proposes a unitization algorithm to further bound ICS.
result The unitization algorithm effectively bounds ICS, especially for low-dimensional outputs and small noise, and can be tuned to control ICS.
This paper concerns an optimal dividend distribution problem for an insurance company whose risk process evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments). The management of the company is assumed to control timing and size of dividend payments. The objective is to maximize the sum of …
We propose some machine-learning-based algorithms to solve hedging problems in incomplete markets. Sources of incompleteness cover illiquidity, untradable risk factors, discrete hedging dates and transaction costs. The proposed algorithms resulting strategies are compared to classical stochastic control techniques on s…
Suppose k centers are fit to m points by heuristically minimizing the k-means cost; what is the corresponding fit over the source distribution? This question is resolved here for distributions with p≥4 bounded moments; in particular, the difference between the sample cost and distribution cost decays with $…
We consider a connected compact Lie group K acting on a symplectic manifold M such that a moment map m exists. A pull-back function via m Poisson commutes with all K-invariants. Guillemin-Sternberg raised the problem to find a converse. In this paper, we solve this problem by determining the Poisson commutant of the al…
We propose a framework for modeling and estimating the state of controlled dynamical systems, where an agent can affect the system through actions and receives partial observations. Based on this framework, we propose the Predictive State Representation with Random Fourier Features (RFFPSR). A key property in RFF-PSRs …
Fast risk assessment for autonomous vehicles using learned agent futures.
problem Risk assessment for autonomous vehicles given probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures.
method Non-sampling based methods using deep neural networks for probabilistic predictions, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models for agent positions and controls.
result Effective risk assessment for low probability events using learned models of agent futures.
We compute the first Dirichlet eigenvalue of a geodesic ball in a rotationally symmetric model space in terms of the moment spectrum for the Brownian motion exit times from the ball. This expression implies an estimate as exact as you want for the first Dirichlet eigenvalue of a geodesic ball in these rotationally symm…
The paper analyzes stability of random matrix products with Markovian noise.
problem Analyzing stability of random matrix products with Markovian noise.
method Using a super-Lyapunov drift condition and controlled growth of matrix-valued functions, the paper provides an exponential stability result for the p-th moment of random matrix product.
result Finite-time p-th moment bounds for linear stochastic approximation and TD learning algorithms.