A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian symbolic regression automates model discovery from data.
Saliency maps are often used in computer vision to provide intuitive interpretations of what input regions a model has used to produce a specific prediction. A number of approaches to saliency map generation are available, but most require access to model parameters. This work proposes an approach for saliency map gene…
Recent success in deep reinforcement learning for continuous control has been dominated by model-free approaches which, unlike model-based approaches, do not suffer from representational limitations in making assumptions about the world dynamics and model errors inevitable in complex domains. However, they require a lo…
Unified approach to learn interpretable concepts from data.
Paper evaluates CNN-based facial landmark detection methods.
VB approach for dynamic network models improves efficiency and accuracy.
New approach for prudent risk evaluation using model aggregation.
Q-Ensembles are a model-free approach where input images are fed into different Q-networks and exploration is driven by the assumption that uncertainty is proportional to the variance of the output Q-values obtained. They have been shown to perform relatively well compared to other exploration strategies. Further, mode…
Extends batch active learning to non-differentiable models.
We propose a novel approach to model selection for simulator-based statistical models. The proposed approach defines a mixture of candidate models, and then iteratively updates the weight coefficients for those models as well as the parameters in each model simultaneously; this is done by recursively applying Bayes' ru…
This paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) for operational risk and recommends maintaining Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA).
Kernel-based machine learning approaches are gaining increasing interest for exploring and modeling large dataset in recent years. Gaussian process (GP) is one example of such kernel-based approaches, which can provide very good performance for nonlinear modeling problems. In this work, we first propose a grey-box mode…
A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known score-and-search approach. However, selecting a single model (i.e., the best scoring BN) can b…
We present a new mixture model-based discriminant analysis approach for functional data using a specific hidden process regression model. The approach allows for fitting flexible curve-models to each class of complex-shaped curves presenting regime changes. The model parameters are learned by maximizing the observed-da…
Paper proposes an alternative method to price American options using HJM approach.
Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a complete e…
This paper reviews and analyzes various modeling approaches for financial index tracking.
Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to posterior densities on model parameters. In this note, we review the main variants of …
Machine learning models have been widely used in security applications such as intrusion detection, spam filtering, and virus or malware detection. However, it is well-known that adversaries are always trying to adapt their attacks to evade detection. For example, an email spammer may guess what features spam detection…
We construct default-free interest rate models in the spirit of the well-known Markov funcional models: our focus is analytic tractability of the models and generality of the approach. We work in the setting of state price densities and construct models by means of the so called propagation property. The propagation pr…
This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high rel…
Enforces physical constraints in GP regression models.
There have been rapid developments in model-based clustering of graphs, also known as block modelling, over the last ten years or so. We review different approaches and extensions proposed for different aspects in this area, such as the type of the graph, the clustering approach, the inference approach, and whether the…
A salient approach to interpretable machine learning is to restrict modeling to simple models. In the Bayesian framework, this can be pursued by restricting the model structure and prior to favor interpretable models. Fundamentally, however, interpretability is about users' preferences, not the data generation mechanis…
We review some approaches to the understanding of fluctuations in some models used to describe socio and economic systems. Our approach builds on the development of a simple Langevin equation that characterises stochastic processes. This provides a unifying approach that allows first a straightforward description of th…
A RL approach dynamically assigns and updates weights of ensemble models for better time series forecasting.
New approach combines likelihood and adversarial losses for better precipitation predictions.
A new approach switches between simple and complex models to handle concept drifts in regression tasks.
This paper proposes an EM approach to reduce inference latency in NAR sequence generation.
In this article, we review the construction and properties of some popular approaches to modeling LIBOR rates. We discuss the following frameworks: classical LIBOR market models, forward price models and Markov-functional models. We close with the recently developed affine LIBOR models.
Finite mixture models have been used for unsupervised learning for some time, and their use within the semi-supervised paradigm is becoming more commonplace. Clickstream data is one of the various emerging data types that demands particular attention because there is a notable paucity of statistical learning approaches…
Three approaches for personalized models in machine learning.
In this paper we consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits. We consider two pricing approaches, the classical risk-neutral approach and the benchmark approach, and we examine the associated static and optimal behaviors of both the investor and insurer. The first model …
In this work, we develop Gaussian process regression (GPR) models of hyperelastic material behavior. First, we consider the direct approach of modeling the components of the Cauchy stress tensor as a function of the components of the Finger stretch tensor in a Gaussian process. We then consider an improvement on this a…
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
Study proposes a new approach for deep hedging using artificial market simulations.
This paper introduces a novel mixture model-based approach for simultaneous clustering and optimal segmentation of functional data which are curves presenting regime changes. The proposed model consists in a finite mixture of piecewise polynomial regression models. Each piecewise polynomial regression model is associat…
Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome this limitation by using likelihood-free inference approaches (also known as App…
We propose a general framework for solving statistical mechanics of systems with finite size. The approach extends the celebrated variational mean-field approaches using autoregressive neural networks, which support direct sampling and exact calculation of normalized probability of configurations. It computes variation…
It is oftentimes impossible to understand how machine learning models reach a decision. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how a learning model makes individual decisions, they cannot provide users with ability to inspect a learning model as a complete entity. In…
Study compares model-free valuation to actual financial outcomes, finds it slightly conservative.
New method tests tree models without causing computational pressure.
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
A new uplift modeling approach uses binary treatment indicators more efficiently.
This study compares microscopic and macroscopic models for commodity index derivatives pricing.
The paper proposes a new approach to model risk measurement based on the Wasserstein distance between two probability measures. It formulates the theoretical motivation resulting from the interpretation of fictitious adversary of robust risk management. The proposed approach accounts for equivalent and non-equivalent p…
We study inference and learning based on a sparse coding model with `spike-and-slab' prior. As in standard sparse coding, the model used assumes independent latent sources that linearly combine to generate data points. However, instead of using a standard sparse prior such as a Laplace distribution, we study the applic…
For an unknown (new) classification dataset, choosing an appropriate deep learning architecture is often a recursive, time-taking, and laborious process. In this research, we propose a novel technique to recommend a suitable architecture from a repository of known models. Further, we predict the performance accuracy of…