A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a test for model specification using unlabeled data.
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
Survey on efficient counterfactual explanations for various ML models.
Develops a faster model selection method using influence functions.
New method identifies important features and interactions in RF models.
Efron et al. (2001) proposed empirical Bayes formulation of the frequentist Benjamini and Hochbergs False Discovery Rate method (Benjamini and Hochberg,1995). This article attempts to unify the `two cultures' using concepts of comparison density and distribution function. We have also shown how almost all of the existi…
Proposes a new selective regression method using conformal prediction.
Paper presents an algorithm to analyze DGNNs by identifying generative boundaries and sampling.
Concept modulation models unify identifiability and extrapolation in conditional latent variable models.
Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generali…
The mean field methods, which entail approximating intractable probability distributions variationally with distributions from a tractable family, enjoy high efficiency, guaranteed convergence, and provide lower bounds on the true likelihood. But due to requirement for model-specific derivation of the optimization equa…
This article aims to discuss some basics in field of credit modeling, specifically the pricing issue of FtD contract. We demonstrate how the popular copula approach is used in pricing FtD contract, and give a stimulation example of such practice based on SAS 9.1.
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. Despite the many advantages of joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification and computational difficulties when applied to …
Method solves Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs efficiently.
CEFOL uses deep learning for dynamic programming with recursive utility.
Customized-GNN generates model-specific for each graph.
Most previous works usually explained adversarial examples from several specific perspectives, lacking relatively integral comprehension about this problem. In this paper, we present a systematic study on adversarial examples from three aspects: the amount of training data, task-dependent and model-specific factors. Pa…
A new framework for coreset selection in machine learning models.
In this paper, we develop an unsupervised generative clustering framework that combines the Variational Information Bottleneck and the Gaussian Mixture Model. Specifically, in our approach, we use the Variational Information Bottleneck method and model the latent space as a mixture of Gaussians. We derive a bound on th…
Novel estimation methods improve MAR model accuracy for high-dimensional time series.
Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump-diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and the dividend paying stoc…
We consider the problem of learning mixtures of generalized linear models (GLM) which arise in classification and regression problems. Typical learning approaches such as expectation maximization (EM) or variational Bayes can get stuck in spurious local optima. In contrast, we present a tensor decomposition method whic…
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. While there are many advantages to joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that arise from a fixed model specification, and computational difficulties when applie…
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we …
This paper examines the problem of pricing spread options under some models with jumps driven by Compound Poisson Processes and stochastic volatilities in the form of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR) processes. We derive the characteristic function for two market models featuring joint normally distributed jumps, stochastic vol…
Unified framework for estimating high-dimensional conditional factor models.
Although deep learning models have been successfully applied to a variety of tasks, due to the millions of parameters, they are becoming increasingly opaque and complex. In order to establish trust for their widespread commercial use, it is important to formalize a principled framework to reason over these models. In t…
This paper evaluates heterogeneous information fusion using multi-task Gaussian processes in the context of geological resource modeling. Specifically, it empirically demonstrates that information integration across heterogeneous information sources leads to superior estimates of all the quantities being modeled, compa…
We use path integrals to calculate hedge parameters and efficacy of hedging in a quantum field theory generalization of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (HJM) term structure model which parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. We also calculate, within the model specification, the eff…
We resolve the fundamental problem of online decoding with general order ergodic Markov chain models. Specifically, we provide deterministic and randomized algorithms whose performance is close to that of the optimal offline algorithm even when latency is small. Our algorithms admit efficient implementation vi…
Optimal defenses protect FL models from gradient reconstruction attacks.
Develops a method to estimate quantiles in censored data using random forests.
Paper reviews methods for conditional sampling in generative diffusion models.
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of summary statistic, but outside of special cases where the optimal summary statis…
CO-BED optimizes experiments using Bayesian methods and information theory.
We develop a simple and computationally efficient significance test for the features of a machine learning model. Our forward-selection approach applies to any model specification, learning task and variable type. The test is non-asymptotic, straightforward to implement, and does not require model refitting. It identif…
Spectral clustering is one of the most popular methods for community detection in graphs. A key step in spectral clustering algorithms is the eigen decomposition of the graph Laplacian matrix to extract its leading eigenvectors, where is the desired number of clusters among objects. This is pro…
Automates learning of multivariate diffusions for generative models.
Contemporary power grids are being challenged by rapid voltage fluctuations that are caused by large-scale deployment of renewable generation, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. In this context, monitoring the grid's operating conditions in real time becomes increasingly critical. With the emergent large …
Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the context of Bayesian topic models, particularly latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Deri…
Researchers simulate and estimate a market model with a matching engine to understand its impact on order submission and management.
Model shows government incentives boost green bond investment.
Automates finding interactions in GLMs using neural networks.
A new method uses natural gradients for efficient distribution optimization.
Machine Learning models have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, ie. the manipulation of data by a attacker to defeat a defender's classifier at test time. We present a novel probabilistic definition of adversarial examples in perfect or limited knowledge setting using prior probability distributions o…
Archipelago provides interpretable explanations of feature interactions in machine learning models.