Complex models are commonly used in predictive modeling. In this paper we present R packages that can be used to explain predictions from complex black box models and attribute parts of these predictions to input features. We introduce two new approaches and corresponding packages for such attribution, namely live and …
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48 results for “model implementation”
Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This differs from the usual approach of defining static betting functions. It is sho…
The rapidly growing demands for powerful AI algorithms in many application domains have motivated massive investment in both high-quality deep neural network (DNN) models and high-efficiency implementations. In this position paper, we argue that a simultaneous DNN/implementation co-design methodology, named Neural Arch…
Unified framework for multi-view autoencoders simplifies model implementation and evaluation.
problem Inconsistent notation and implementation of multi-view autoencoders.
method Unified mathematical framework, documentation, and Python library.
result Comparable or superior performance in benchmarking experiments.
An Analysis of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model: Implementation and Calibration using Matlabq-fin.PR
This paper analyses the implementation and calibration of the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model. We first explain how characteristic functions can be used to estimate option prices. Then we consider the implementation of the Heston model, showing that relatively simple solutions can lead to fast and accurate vanilla o…
Recursive neural networks have widely been used by researchers to handle applications with recursively or hierarchically structured data. However, embedded control flow deep learning frameworks such as TensorFlow, Theano, Caffe2, and MXNet fail to efficiently represent and execute such neural networks, due to lack of s…
XGBoost implements AFT models for survival regression.
problem Survival regression for time-to-event data.
method Loss functions for AFT models in XGBoost.
result XGBoost's AFT model improves generalization and training speed.
De-identification of clinical records is an extremely important process which enables the use of the wealth of information present in them. There are a lot of techniques available for this but none of the method implementation has evaluated the scalability, which is an important benchmark. We evaluated numerous deep le…
This paper improves PPCA robustness using -distributions.
problem Improving robustness of probabilistic PCA.
method Using multivariate -distributions and a hierarchical model.
result Clarified the correct correspondence between the multivariate -PPCA framework and the hierarchical model.
Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a dimensionality reduction technique that can boost efficiency of machine learning models that deal with probability density functions, e.g. Bayesian neural networks. Algorithms that implement adaptive ICA converge slower than their nonadaptive counterparts, however, they are cap…
In this paper we solve the dividend optimization problem for a corporation or a financial institution when the managers of the corporation are facing (regulatory) implementation delays. We consider several cash reservoir models for the firm including two mean-reverting processes, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and square-root proc…
EiNets improve PCs for scalable probabilistic modeling.
problem Scalability issues in training PCs on real-world data.
method Combining einsum operations for speedups and memory savings; simplifying EM for PCs.
result EiNets can scale to large datasets like SVHN and CelebA.
Getting Started with Particle Metropolis-Hastings for Inference in Nonlinear Dynamical Modelsstat.CO
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm …
Development systems for deep learning (DL), such as Theano, Torch, TensorFlow, or MXNet, are easy-to-use tools for creating complex neural network models. Since gradient computations are automatically baked in, and execution is mapped to high performance hardware, these models can be trained end-to-end on large amounts…
Many important schemes in signal processing and communications, ranging from the BCJR algorithm to the Kalman filter, are instances of factor graph methods. This family of algorithms is based on recursive message passing-based computations carried out over graphical models, representing a factorization of the underlyin…
DoubleML implements machine learning for causal inference in R.
problem Estimating causal effects in regression models with high-dimensional data.
method Double machine learning framework with Neyman orthogonality and sample splitting.
result Valid inference on causal parameters using machine learning methods.
Rgtsvm provides a fast and flexible support vector machine (SVM) implementation for the R language. The distinguishing feature of Rgtsvm is that support vector classification and support vector regression tasks are implemented on a graphical processing unit (GPU), allowing the libraries to scale to millions of examples…
Framework simplifies GPs for deep learning models.
problem Inadequate implementations for variations in Gaussian processes.
method Modular system for scalable approximate inference in Gaussian processes.
result Unified interface for multioutput models and convolutional structures.
New software package for scalable DPMM inference on large datasets.
problem Scalability and practical adoption of Dirichlet Process Mixture Models.
method Efficient distributed sampling-based inference on CPUs and GPUs.
result Significant speedups and fitting of larger datasets.
Refined BN-S model improves crude oil hedging with machine learning.
problem Finding optimal hedging strategy for commodity markets.
method Implemented a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with machine learning algorithms.
result The refined model performs better than the classical BN-S model.
The graphics processing unit (GPU) has emerged as a powerful and cost effective processor for general performance computing. GPUs are capable of an order of magnitude more floating-point operations per second as compared to modern central processing units (CPUs), and thus provide a great deal of promise for computation…
The article describe the model, derivation, and implementation of variational Bayesian inference for linear and logistic regression, both with and without automatic relevance determination. It has the dual function of acting as a tutorial for the derivation of variational Bayesian inference for simple models, as well a…
Although optimization is the longstanding algorithmic backbone of machine learning, new models still require the time-consuming implementation of new solvers. As a result, there are thousands of implementations of optimization algorithms for machine learning problems. A natural question is, if it is always necessary to…
A method to improve gradient boosting models using stacking.
problem Improving the performance of gradient boosting models.
method Proposes a stacking algorithm to learn a meta-model for ensembles of gradient boosting models.
result The proposed approach can be extended to differentiable combination models like neural networks.
Quantum computing speeds up risk analysis by efficiently sampling copulas.
problem Efficiently modeling tail dependence and risk measures in financial risk analysis.
method Quantum computing implementation of copula models for risk aggregation.
result The MB11 copula family is suitable for capturing tail dependence structures in risk factors.
Bayesian SPLDAstat.ML
In this document we are going to derive the equations needed to implement a Variational Bayes estimation of the parameters of the simplified probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (SPLDA) model. This can be used to adapt SPLDA from one database to another with few development data or to implement the fully Bayesian…
NoMoPy models noise as HMM/FHMM in Python.
problem Modeling noise in data.
method Approximate and exact EM algorithms, cross-validation, confidence region estimation.
result Validated on example problems.
The paper presents a method for detecting jump sizes in crude oil prices.
problem Detecting jump sizes in crude oil price data.
method Sequential hypothesis testing using infinitesimal generators and super-solutions.
result The method improves the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for derivative and commodity market analysis.
We introduce the C++ application and R package ranger. The software is a fast implementation of random forests for high dimensional data. Ensembles of classification, regression and survival trees are supported. We describe the implementation, provide examples, validate the package with a reference implementation, and …
Scalable Bayesian dynamic covariance modeling with variational Wishart and inverse Wishart processesstat.ML
We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and inverse Wishart processes are constructed from i.i.d. Gaussian processes, existing var…
CleverHans is a software library that provides standardized reference implementations of adversarial example construction techniques and adversarial training. The library may be used to develop more robust machine learning models and to provide standardized benchmarks of models' performance in the adversarial setting. …
Nested Chinese Restaurant Process (nCRP) topic models are powerful nonparametric Bayesian methods to extract a topic hierarchy from a given text corpus, where the hierarchical structure is automatically determined by the data. Hierarchical Latent Dirichlet Allocation (hLDA) is a popular instance of nCRP topic models. H…
Due to their prevalence, time series forecasting is crucial in multiple domains. We seek to make state-of-the-art forecasting fast, accessible, and generalizable. ES-RNN is a hybrid between classical state space forecasting models and modern RNNs that achieved a 9.4% sMAPE improvement in the M4 competition. Crucially, …
ESN models predict intraday stock returns efficiently.
problem Intraday stock return prediction using machine learning.
method Echo State Network (ESN) models with random parameters.
result ESN models achieve strong forecasting performance efficiently.
New algorithms for approximating stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Finding accurate finite approximations for stochastic processes.
method Develops new algorithms and fast implementations for approximating stochastic processes.
result Efficient approximations for stochastic processes can be found.
NPE improves scalability and efficiency for ERGMs.
problem Scalability and efficiency issues in Bayesian ERGM estimation.
method Neural posterior estimation (NPE) for ERGMs using neural network density estimation.
result NPE provides more efficient and scalable inference for ERGMs.
This research simplifies lending pools in decentralized finance for better understanding and security.
problem Complexity and lack of executable models make lending pools hard to understand and predict.
method Developed a formal model to reflect common features of lending pools and proved general properties.
result Proved correct handling of funds and described vulnerabilities and attacks.
We present CYCLADES, a general framework for parallelizing stochastic optimization algorithms in a shared memory setting. CYCLADES is asynchronous during shared model updates, and requires no memory locking mechanisms, similar to HOGWILD!-type algorithms. Unlike HOGWILD!, CYCLADES introduces no conflicts during the par…
Trivalent -stratifolds are a generalization of -manifolds in that there are disjoint simple closed curves where three sheets meet. We develop operations on their associated labeled graphs that will effectively construct from a single vertex all graphs that represent -connected -stratifolds. We describe an i…
New metrics quantify implementation risk in portfolio backtesting, revealing systematic differences in engine implementations.
problem Systematic divergence in backtested portfolio metrics due to differences in engine implementations.
method Formalized implementation risk, proposed four metrics, executed 15 strategies through five engines, analyzed source-code defects.
result Implementation risk introduces measurable ambiguity in performance attribution, but does not alter investment decisions.
Efficient numerical method for time-fractional Black-Scholes model.
problem Solving time-fractional Black-Scholes equations for European options.
method Crank-Nicolson discretization for time, exponential B-spline for space.
result The proposed method is unconditionally stable and superior to existing approaches.
It takes skill to build a meaningful predictive model even with the abundance of implementations of modern machine learning algorithms and readily available computing resources. Building a model becomes challenging if hundreds of terabytes of data need to be processed to produce the training data set. In a digital adve…
Study shows depth improves generalization in deep learning models.
problem Understanding why and when depth improves generalization in deep learning.
method Implementation-agnostic state-transition model to analyze depth and generalization.
result Identifies geometric and semigroup mechanisms that keep entropy contribution saturated or polynomial, clarifying depth's statistical advantage.
We present efficient differentiable implementations of second-order multi-hop reasoning using a large symbolic knowledge base (KB). We introduce a new operation which can be used to compositionally construct second-order multi-hop templates in a neural model, and evaluate a number of alternative implementations, with d…
Paper presents quantum algorithms for pricing financial derivatives using complex models.
problem Implementing complex financial models like local volatility on quantum computers.
method Developed two quantum circuit implementations for local volatility model.
result Demonstrated reduced qubit requirements for local volatility model.
Ultra-low latency recurrent neural network inference on FPGAs for physics applications with hls4mlcs.LG
Paper presents FPGA implementation for efficient recurrent neural networks.
problem Implementing recurrent neural networks on FPGAs for low latency.
method Developed hls4ml framework to implement LSTM and GRU layers.
result Demonstrated effective designs for both small and large models.
Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are powerful machine learning models, but learning and some kinds of inference in the model require sampling-based approximations, which, in classical digital computers, are implemented using expensive MCMC. Physical computation offers the opportunity to reduce the cost of sampling …
DoubleML is a Python library for causal inference using machine learning.
problem Estimating causal parameters in complex models with machine learning.
method Double machine learning framework for valid statistical inference.
result High flexibility and easy extension for various model specifications.