The coefficient of determination, known as , is commonly used as a goodness-of-fit criterion for fitting linear models. is somewhat controversial when fitting nonlinear models, although it may be generalised on a case-by-case basis to deal with specific models such as the logistic model. Assume we are fittin…
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48 results for “model fit”
Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies an…
We propose a data aggregation-based algorithm with monotonic convergence to a global optimum for a generalized version of the L1-norm error fitting model with an assumption of the fitting function. The proposed algorithm generalizes the recent algorithm in the literature, aggregate and iterative disaggregate (AID), whi…
We study a resource utilization scenario characterized by intrinsic fitness. To describe the growth and organization of different cities, we consider a model for resource utilization where many restaurants compete, as in a game, to attract customers using an iterative learning process. Results for the case of restauran…
Study presents MMC model for better fitting multiple choice data.
problem Improving accuracy of latent trait estimates in IRT models.
method Fit autoencoders to MMC model, demonstrating better fit than nominal response model.
result MMC model outperforms traditional IRT models in fit.
Perfectly Fitting CDO Prices Across Tranches: A Theoretical Framework with Efficient Algorithmsq-fin.RM
Paper proposes a perfect-fit model for CDO tranches.
problem Achieving a perfect fit to market prices across all CDO tranches.
method Introduces compatibility levels, derives conditions, constructs copula models.
result Demonstrates efficient verification and construction of perfect-fit models.
Closed form formulas for swaption prices in HJM model are derived. These formulas are used for nonparametric fit of deterministic forward volatility. It is demonstrated that this formula and non-parametric fit works very well and can be used to identify arbitrage opportunities
In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like processes, which is easily applied to a variety of semimartingale models. In each cas…
New robustness test for kernel goodness-of-fit tests.
problem Lack of robustness in existing kernel goodness-of-fit tests.
method Proposes a new robust kernel goodness-of-fit test using kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) balls.
result First robust kernel goodness-of-fit test addressing both qualitative and quantitative robustness.
Smoothed fitness landscape improves protein optimization.
problem Infeasibility of combinatorially large protein sequence space.
method Formulate protein fitness as a graph signal, smooth using Tikunov regularization, and optimize with Gibbs sampling.
result 2.5 fold fitness improvement over training set.
Fitting models for non-Poisson point processes is complicated by the lack of tractable models for much of the data. By using large samples of independent and identically distributed realizations and statistical learning, it is possible to identify absence of fit through finding a classification rule that can efficientl…
Analysis of different Mathematical Models for Different Case Studies Using Statistical Fittingmath.DG
Study evaluates different mathematical models for three case studies using statistical fitting.
problem Estimating outcomes in population dynamics, temperature variations, and market equilibrium.
method Applied various statistical equations (e.g., fractional exponential, sinusoidal) to three case studies.
result Optimal models differ by case study (fractional exponential for population dynamics, sinusoidal for temperature and market equilibrium).
Optimistic estimate predicts best fitting performance of nonlinear models.
problem Evaluating the potential of nonlinear models in fitting.
method Proposes an optimistic estimate to quantify the smallest sample size for fitting nonlinear models.
result Predicts specific subsets of targets that can be fitted at overparameterization.
The accumulation of individual fitness or wealth is modelled as a population game in which pairs of individuals are recurrently and randomly matched to play a game over a resource. In addition, all individuals have random access to a constant background resource, and their fitness or wealth depreciates over time. For b…
A new kernel Stein test assesses fit for variable-length sequential data.
problem Evaluating goodness of fit for varying-dimensional data like text documents of different lengths.
method Extends kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) to variable-dimension settings by identifying appropriate Stein operators and proposing a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test.
result The proposed test performs well on discrete sequential data benchmarks.
New spectral tests assess network model fits efficiently.
problem Determining if network models fit data well and extrapolate.
method Random matrix theory-derived goodness-of-fit tests.
result General approach simplifies parameter selection in network models.
The Bezier simplex fitting is a novel data modeling technique which exploits geometric structures of data to approximate the Pareto front of multi-objective optimization problems. There are two fitting methods based on different sampling strategies. The inductive skeleton fitting employs a stratified subsampling from e…
Interactive visualization helps understand complex machine learning models.
problem Low interpretability of machine learning models.
method Interactive slice visualization of predictor space, using interaction or touring algorithms.
result Enhances understanding and validation of machine learning model fits.
This paper is a step-by-step tutorial for fitting a mixture distribution to data. It merely assumes the reader has the background of calculus and linear algebra. Other required background is briefly reviewed before explaining the main algorithm. In explaining the main algorithm, first, fitting a mixture of two distribu…
We consider a particular instance of a common problem in recommender systems: using a database of book reviews to inform user-targeted recommendations. In our dataset, books are categorized into genres and sub-genres. To exploit this nested taxonomy, we use a hierarchical model that enables information pooling across a…
We present techniques for effective Gaussian process (GP) modelling of multiple short time series. These problems are common when applying GP models independently to each gene in a gene expression time series data set. Such sets typically contain very few time points. Naive application of common GP modelling techniques…
HAR model outperforms ML in stock forecasting with correct fitting schemes.
problem Realized volatility forecasting using machine learning techniques.
method Investigated the role of fitting schemes in HAR model performance, focusing on training window and re-estimation frequency.
result HAR model consistently outperforms ML models when using a correctly specified fitting approach.
Proposes -table for statistical SHAP explanations in regression models.
problem Lack of clear directional summaries, uncertainty, and fidelity in SHAP feature importance.
method SHAP importance selection, fitting a standardized linear surrogate, reporting coefficients, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
result Extends SHAP into a statistical global explanation with direction, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
Computational models in fields such as computational neuroscience are often evaluated via stochastic simulation or numerical approximation. Fitting these models implies a difficult optimization problem over complex, possibly noisy parameter landscapes. Bayesian optimization (BO) has been successfully applied to solving…
We present a new variable selection method based on model-based gradient boosting and randomly permuted variables. Model-based boosting is a tool to fit a statistical model while performing variable selection at the same time. A drawback of the fitting lies in the need of multiple model fits on slightly altered data (e…
Paper shows how SFA fits into FBM framework for time series separation.
problem Identifying time series decomposition in flow-based models.
method Combining SFA and FBM to make time series decomposition identifiable.
result Time series decomposition becomes identifiable using SFA and FBM.
GRASP tests goodness-of-fit for binary classifiers without parametric assumptions.
problem Assessing the fit of a binary classifier to the underlying conditional law of labels given features.
method Formulates a tolerance hypothesis testing problem and proposes a novel test called GRASP.
result Proposes GRASP and Model-X GRASP tests for assessing goodness-of-fit in finite sample settings.
The log-periodic power law (LPPL) is a model of asset prices during endogenous bubbles. If the on-going development of a bubble is suspected, asset prices can be fit numerically to the LPPL law. The best solutions can then indicate whether a bubble is in progress and, if so, the bubble critical time (i.e., when the bub…
New NMF algorithms improve topic model fits.
problem Improving topic model fits for large datasets.
method Leveraging recent NMF optimization methods to fit topic models efficiently.
result Better topic model fits and faster computation times.
The first step to realize automatic experimental data analysis for fusion plasma experiments is fitting noisy data of temperature and density spatial profiles, which are obtained routinely. However, it has been difficult to construct algorithms that fit all the data without over- and under-fitting. In this paper, we sh…
The paper fits cash management models to data using stochastic and linear programming.
problem Cash flow probability distribution assumptions in cash management models are relaxed.
method Stochastic and linear programming to fit models to data.
result A small random sample of data is sufficient to fit bound-based models.
The balance property is crucial for insurance pricing, ensuring total actuarial price equals loss. Maximum likelihood GLMs fulfill it, but Lindholm-Wüthrich suggests three methods, with constrained GLM being superior.
problem Ensuring the balance property in insurance pricing models
method Using constrained GLM fitting
result Constrained GLM fitting is superior to the two previously discussed balance correction methods
The paper introduces a method for fitting complex models using simulation and optimization.
problem Fitting models with intractable likelihood or moments.
method Sequential sampling and local smoothing, combining global and local search phases.
result The proposed method outperforms alternative approaches in fitting complex models.
New rules reduce SLOPE model fitting time by screening out irrelevant variables.
problem Expensive tuning of regularization parameter in penalized regression models.
method Strong screening rules for group-based SLOPE models.
result Significant acceleration of fitting process for Group SLOPE and sparse-group SLOPE.
Better subset regressionstat.ME
To find efficient screening methods for high dimensional linear regression models, this paper studies the relationship between model fitting and screening performance. Under a sparsity assumption, we show that a subset that includes the true submodel always yields smaller residual sum of squares (i.e., has better model…
Graphical lasso may fail to fit models when data points are insufficient.
problem When does graphical lasso fail to select and fit a graphical model?
method Computational experiments with graphical lasso.
result Graphical lasso may fail when the number of data points is less than the maximum likelihood threshold.
Kernel Multigrid accelerates Back-fitting for additive Gaussian Processes.
problem Slow convergence of Back-fitting in training additive Gaussian Processes.
method Kernel Packets (KP) and Sparse Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to enhance Back-fitting.
result Kernel Multigrid reduces the required iterations to .
Neural networks fit fewer samples than their parameters suggest in practice.
problem Understanding the practical limitations of neural network flexibility.
method Examination of neural network optimization, parameter efficiency, and loss surfaces.
result Neural networks can only fit training sets with significantly fewer samples than their parameters suggest.
CEDA improves understanding of data fit to models.
problem Real-world data often deviates from theoretical models.
method Categorical Exploratory Data Analysis (CEDA) to highlight deviations.
result CEDA reveals where and how data fits or deviates from models.
OccamNet finds interpretable symbolic fits to data efficiently.
problem Complex neural models extrapolate poorly and are hard to interpret.
method Samples functions, biases towards better fits, and uses cross-entropy matching.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art symbolic regression methods on real-world datasets.
The statistical description and modeling of volatility plays a prominent role in econometrics, risk management and finance. GARCH and stochastic volatility models have been extensively studied and are routinely fitted to market data, albeit providing a phenomenological description only. In contrast, the field of econop…
Paper provides exponential convergence guarantees for Iterative Markovian Fitting.
problem Addressing the Schrödinger Bridge problem in computational optimal transport and generative modeling.
method Develops non-asymptotic exponential convergence guarantees for Iterative Markovian Fitting.
result First non-asymptotic exponential convergence guarantees for IMF under mild structural assumptions.
In regression modelling approach, the main step is to fit the regression line as close as possible to the target variable. In this process most algorithms try to fit all of the data in a single line and hence fitting all parts of target variable in one go. It was observed that the error between predicted and target var…
Sliced kernelized Stein discrepancy improves goodness-of-fit tests and model learning in high dimensions.
problem The curse-of-dimensionality in kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD).
method Sliced Stein discrepancy and its scalable variants using optimal one-dimensional projections.
result Significantly outperforms KSD and baselines in goodness-of-fit tests and improves model learning.
We present the use of the fitted Q iteration in algorithmic trading. We show that the fitted Q iteration helps alleviate the dimension problem that the basic Q-learning algorithm faces in application to trading. Furthermore, we introduce a procedure including model fitting and data simulation to enrich training data as…
Optimal unimodal fitting for linear loss functions in a sequential, efficient manner.
problem Optimal unimodal transformation of univariate model scores under linear loss functions.
method Proposes a sequential approach to estimate the optimal rectangular fit for observed samples with each new sample.
result Sequential approach achieves optimal efficiency with logarithmic time complexity per iteration.
Multi-Purpose Binomial Model: Fitting all Moments to the Underlying Geometric Brownian Motionq-fin.PR
We construct a binomial tree model fitting all moments to the approximated geometric Brownian motion. Our construction generalizes the classical Cox-Ross-Rubinstein, the Jarrow-Rudd, and the Tian binomial tree models. The new binomial model is used to resolve a discontinuity problem in option pricing.
A new method improves fitting neural data with spiking network models.
problem Fitting spiking network models to neural activity does not produce realistic data.
method Augment log-likelihood with dissimilarity terms measured by summary statistics and optimized via back-propagation.
result The new method generates more realistic neural activity statistics and improves network connectivity inference.