Proposes a falsification framework to test algorithmic discriminant validity.
problem Unintended model behavior in predictive algorithms.
method Falsification framework based on statistical tests comparing prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity for some outcomes but not others.
VerifAI toolkit improves neural network-based aircraft taxiing system safety.
problem Improving safety of autonomous aircraft taxiing systems using neural networks.
method Unified approach to formal analysis and retraining of AI systems, including falsification, debugging, and retraining.
result Improved neural network performance and reduced failure cases in aircraft taxiing system.
Algorithm detects unmeasured confounding in observational data.
problem Estimating treatment effects in observational studies with untestable conditions.
method Two-stage procedure that detects dependencies between causal mechanisms.
result Algorithm efficiently detects confounding on simulated and semi-synthetic data.
Proposes a test to ensure predictive algorithms predict intended outcomes better than unintended ones.
problem Unintended model behavior leading to prediction of unintended outcomes.
method Falsification framework using nonparametric hypothesis testing to compare prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but not race in an admissions setting.
This work examines fundamental limits in model falsification without assuming specific distributions.
problem Establishing lower bounds on model class risk in distribution-free settings.
method Model-agnostic fundamental hardness result for constructing lower bounds on test error.
result No positive lower bound on model class risk is possible in certain settings.
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
problem Spurious predictability in financial machine learning models.
method Falsification audit testing predictive workflows against synthetic environments.
result Many apparent financial predictions are artifacts, not genuine.
Study finds no statistically significant trading edge in MNQ futures signals from OHLCV data.
problem Testing intraday momentum signals from OHLCV data in MNQ futures under realistic execution constraints.
method 947 trading days of five-minute data, 14 signal families evaluated, strict institutional criteria applied.
result No signal satisfies all criteria simultaneously, gross edge insufficient to overcome costs.
A new method predicts causal relationships without joint data.
problem Falsifying causal discovery algorithms without ground truth.
method Leave-One-Variable-Out (LOVO) prediction for causal graphs.
result LOVO method correlates prediction error with causal algorithm accuracy.
This paper considers the problem of detection in distributed networks in the presence of data falsification (Byzantine) attacks. Detection approaches considered in the paper are based on fully distributed consensus algorithms, where all of the nodes exchange information only with their neighbors in the absence of a fus…
We information-theoretically reformulate two measures of capacity from statistical learning theory: empirical VC-entropy and empirical Rademacher complexity. We show these capacity measures count the number of hypotheses about a dataset that a learning algorithm falsifies when it finds the classifier in its repertoire …
Efficiently generates models resistant to falsification.
problem Creating models that cannot be disproven by tests.
method Exploits connections between high-dimensional multicalibration and expected variational inequality problems to develop an efficient algorithm.
result First to efficiently produce online outcome indistinguishable generative models resistant to infinite classes of tests.
Tests validity of DML estimators without assumptions.
problem Validating DML estimators without making assumptions.
method Develops tests to falsify assumptions for DML estimators.
result Falsifies assumptions for DML estimators with non-trivial power.
New method falsifies causal discovery results without ground truth.
problem Evaluation of causal discovery algorithms without ground truth data.
method Detects incompatibilities between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables.
result Detection of incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations.
The standard taxonomy of predictive uncertainty is inconsistent with standard measures.
problem Uncertainty taxonomy and measure inconsistency
method Proof of inconsistency
result Uncertainty is not reducible to data collection
The paper argues that machine learning is a falsificationist process.
problem The role of falsification in machine learning is underexplored.
method The paper presents a falsificationist account of artificial neural networks, emphasizing empirical risk minimization and implicit regularization.
result Artificial neural networks can be seen as a falsificationist process, rejecting inadequate prediction rules.
New methods improve robust decision-making under uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Statistical uncertainty and causal considerations in off-policy evaluation.
method Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP), causal bounds.
result Improved robustness and uncertainty quantification in off-policy decision-making.
Causal Bayesian networks interpret actions as interventions to connect models to real-world outcomes.
problem Connecting causal model predictions to real-world outcomes.
method Formal framework to interpret actions as interventions and prove impossibility results.
result No non-circular interpretation exists that satisfies natural desiderata without violating some.
A new metric assesses causal graphs using node permutations to detect inconsistencies.
problem Quantifying the goodness of causal graphs and distinguishing them from random graphs.
method Constructing a baseline through node permutations and comparing inconsistencies.
result The proposed metric can distinguish between true and wrong causal graphs.
Study cyber-attacks on RL algorithms, focusing on cost signal manipulation.
problem Adversarial manipulation of cost signals in reinforcement learning.
method Quantitative analysis of TD(λ) and Q-learning algorithms under manipulation. result Bound on approximation error for TD(λ) and convergence properties for Q-learning under stealthy attacks. There are (at least) three approaches to quantifying information. The first, algorithmic information or Kolmogorov complexity, takes events as strings and, given a universal Turing machine, quantifies the information content of a string as the length of the shortest program producing it. The second, Shannon information…
Survey of algorithms for testing AI-driven CPS safety.
problem Testing AI-driven CPS for safety in complex environments.
method Survey of applied algorithms for safety validation.
result Survey of existing tools and techniques for safety validation.
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.
Faster Tsetlin Machines use clause indexing to speed inference and learning.
problem Overfitting and slow inference in Tsetlin Machines.
method Introduced a look-up table that indexes clauses based on feature falsification, enabling faster evaluation of clauses.
result Up to 15 times faster classification and three times faster learning on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST.
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
problem Finding failures in autonomous systems without domain-specific heuristics.
method Adaptive stress testing using go-explore (GE) algorithm.
result GE finds failures in scenarios other RL techniques cannot solve.
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
problem Modeling aggregate claim amount with frequency-severity and joint dependencies.
method Developed three types of BCART models: frequency-severity, sequential, and joint models. Used various distributions for claim severity data.
result Weibull distribution outperforms gamma and lognormal for right-skewed, heavy-tailed claim severity data.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Using model-based trees to partition feature space and create interpretable models.
result Model-based trees generate optimal surrogate models that balance interpretability and performance.
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
problem Improving generative model performance.
method Integrates a learnable Gauge Field into Flow ODEs.
result Gauge Flow Models outperform traditional Flow Models in Flow Matching experiments.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
problem Model predictions may not be robust under model extensions, limiting their applicability.
method The study uses causal ordering to assess robustness of qualitative model predictions and characterizes model extensions that preserve predictions.
result Conditions and techniques are provided to assess robustness of model predictions under model extensions.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
problem Ensemble pre-trained and lightly-finetuned foundation models for improved classification performance.
method Introduces trainable linear classifiers and computationally cheaper model averaging scheme (OMA).
result Ensembled models can better predict on various datasets.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.
problem Model risk in credit portfolio models.
method Demonstrates comprehensive yet easy-to-implement approach to uncertainty in model parameters.
result Comprehensive method to deal with model uncertainties.
The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.
problem Validating stock return models and predicting stock returns.
method Used Fama-French three-factor, four-factor, and five-factor models; also used LSTM model.
result Fama-French five-factor model shows better validity for stock returns.
Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.
problem Challenges in interpreting additive models, particularly neural additive models.
method Review of generalized additive models and discussion of nonidentifiability.
result Challenges in claiming interpretability or suitability for safety-critical applications of additive models.
Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.
problem Real-time diagnosis of complex systems.
method Combines machine learning and physics-based models to create reduced-order models.
result Generated models are two orders of magnitude simpler, improving efficiency.
CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of rich, multimodal models for ranking data.
method Contextual Repeated Selection (CRS) model for multimodal ranking data.
result CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods in various ranking contexts.
Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.
problem Understanding the relationship between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models.
method Exploring the mathematical correspondence between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models, including their geometric and trigonometric/elliptic deformations.
result Sigma models are mathematically equivalent to Gross-Neveu models under certain conditions.
Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…
Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…
Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.
problem Stealing functionality of private ML data by hiding models in a carrier model.
method Parameter sharing approach exploiting the learning capacity of the carrier model.
result Hides a 26x larger secret model or 8 secret models in the carrier model.
Eigen-stratified models reduce model size and improve performance.
problem Large model size in Laplacian-regularized stratified models.
method Formulate eigen-stratified models with linear combinations of bottom eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian.
result Significant reduction in model size with eigen-stratified models.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
This work develops scalable model selection methods with fast update and selection.
problem Efficient model selection for large pools of candidate models.
method Isolated model embedding, which supports asymptotically fast update and selection.
result Standardized Embedder achieves competitive model selection performances.
Paper proposes BMPO to optimize policies using bidirectional models.
problem Model-based reinforcement learning's reliance on forward model accuracy.
method Develops BMPO using both forward and backward models for policy optimization.
result BMPO outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance.
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
This paper distills a complex travel mode choice model into simpler, interpretable models.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models for travel behavior.
method Model distillation combined with market segmentation.
result Generated interpretable models that closely match the predictions of the original complex model.
BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.
problem Improving insurance loss predictions by combining multiple models.
method Pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking, and hierarchical stacking.
result BayesBlend provides a user-friendly way to blend model predictions and estimate weights.
The paper identifies when larger models improve predictions and proposes a switcher model.
problem Understanding when larger models benefit from added complexity.
method Numerical studies on T5 architecture to analyze predictive uncertainty and model performance.
result Large models improve on examples where small models are uncertain, but not on certain examples.
Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.
problem Aggregating models from heterogeneous datasets with shared latent structures.
method Bayesian nonparametrics for identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations.
result Framework successfully aggregates various model types across different applications.