Stochastic volatility modelling of financial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparametric methods for estimation of the density of the volatility process. Both models based on discretely sampled continuo…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “model estimation”
Proposes a new cross-validation method to estimate model performance.
problem The standard cross-validation method does not accurately estimate the performance of the recommended model.
method Develops a new random-effects model framework to improve naive cross-validation estimators.
result Proposed estimators outperform conventional and naive methods in estimating model performance.
Novel estimator reduces diffusion model variance.
problem High variance in score function estimation for diffusion models.
method Uses nearest neighbour samples to estimate the score function.
result Significant decrease in variance, leading to improved model performance.
New method estimates model parameters from incomplete data.
problem Estimating model parameters from incomplete data.
method Variational Gibbs Inference (VGI)
result Competitive or better performance compared to existing methods.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
problem Biased estimates of log marginal likelihood in latent variable models.
method Randomized truncation of infinite series for unbiased estimation.
result Models trained with SUMO give better test-set likelihoods than standard methods.
Improved quantile estimation model for VaR.
problem Improving quantile estimation under distribution estimation.
method Develops a compensatory model with a penalty term to control convergence error.
result Significant improvement in VaR performance.
Estimates growth loss in fund models and proposes a shrinkage method.
problem Estimating growth loss in fund models under frequentist and Bayesian estimation.
method Proposes a shrinkage method to target maximal growth with minimal deviation.
result Empirical evidence shows shrinkage gives a stable estimate closer to growth potential.
Paper uses GMM and MAF for probabilistic classification, outperforming simpler models.
problem Classifying data with complex distributions.
method Density estimation using Gaussian Mixture Model and Masked Autoregressive Flow.
result Proposed classifiers outperform simpler models like linear discriminant analysis.
Paper proposes robust LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model, proving consistency and normality.
problem Estimation of parameters in 2D sinusoidal models with outliers or heavy-tailed noise.
method Least absolute deviation (LAD) estimators for robust parameter estimation.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model parameters.
Bayesian model averaging improves causal effect estimation by averaging over multiple models.
problem Estimating causal effects under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs).
method Bayesian model averaging using Gaussian scale mixture distributions for computational efficiency.
result Bayesian model averaging is optimal for causal effect estimation.
The parameter estimation of unnormalized models is a challenging problem. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is computationally infeasible for these models since normalizing constants are not explicitly calculated. Although some consistent estimators have been proposed earlier, the problem of statistical efficienc…
Regularized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Usually the low-dimensional structure is encoded by the presence of the (unknown) parameters in some low-dimensional model subspace. In such settings, it is desirable for est…
New method improves parameter estimation in complex stochastic models.
problem Parameter calibration in stochastic models with unavailable analytical likelihood.
method Gradient-based simulated parameter estimation with multi-time scale stochastic approximation.
result Enhanced estimation accuracy and reduced computational costs.
New method to recover over-parameterized models corrupted during estimation.
problem Recovering statistical models corrupted after initial estimation.
method Robust estimation using over-parameterized models and redundancy.
result Stochastic gradient descent is well-suited for model repair, but sparsity is generally not repairable.
Deep learning used for parameter estimation in hard-to-infer models.
problem Parameter estimation in intractable models like max-stable processes.
method Train deep neural networks on simulated data to estimate parameters.
result Deep learning provides accurate and faster parameter estimation.
Double Machine Learning estimators are asymptotically inadmissible under structure-agnostic models.
problem Minimax estimators may be inadmissible under structure-agnostic models.
method Exhibit second-order (U-statistic) estimators that asymptotically dominate DML estimators.
result Double Machine Learning estimators are asymptotically inadmissible under structure-agnostic models.
RCUKF combines data-driven modeling and Bayesian estimation for accurate system state estimation.
problem Challenges in obtaining reliable process models for complex systems.
method Integrates reservoir computing with unscented Kalman filtering.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on benchmark problems and real-time vehicle trajectory estimation.
This paper presents foundational theoretical results on distributed parameter estimation for undirected probabilistic graphical models. It introduces a general condition on composite likelihood decompositions of these models which guarantees the global consistency of distributed estimators, provided the local estimator…
A fast bootstrap method estimates cross-validation standard error.
problem Uncertainty quantification in cross-validation estimates.
method Random-effects model to estimate variance component.
result Valid confidence intervals for model performance.
Sparse Estimation using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Modelsstat.ML
In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued models, this paper propo…
Method estimates M-matrices in graphical models with improved accuracy.
problem Estimating M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models.
method Adaptive multiple-stage estimation method solving weighted ℓ1-regularized problems.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification.
Paper introduces a new histogram estimator for nonparametric density estimation that improves performance.
problem Smoothness-based nonparametric density estimators are not optimal for all types of data.
method Incorporates a multi-view latent variable model into histogram-style estimators.
result A new histogram estimator converges faster to multi-view models in error.
Proposes modifications to model-based forests for HTE estimation in observational data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational studies with complex outcomes.
method Orthogonalization strategy from Robinson (1988) applied to model-based forests.
result The orthogonalization strategy reduces confounding effects in simulated studies.
Paper develops unbiased gradient estimator for continuous-time models.
problem Estimating unbiased gradient of log-likelihood for continuous-time models.
method Doubly randomized scheme with coupled conditional particle filter (CCPF).
result Unbiased gradient estimate facilitates gradient-based algorithms.
This paper considers a multiple regression model and compares, under full model hypothesis, analytically as well as by simulation, the performance characteristics of some popular penalty estimators such as ridge regression, LASSO, adaptive LASSO, SCAD, and elastic net versus Least Squares Estimator, restricted estimato…
Estimates natural parameters of p-tensor Ising models efficiently.
problem Estimating natural parameters of p-tensor Ising models from a single sample.
method Maximum pseudo-likelihood (MPL) method.
result MPL estimate is sqrt(N)-consistent under various conditions.
ASEs use surrogate estimation to efficiently evaluate model performance with minimal labels.
problem Efficient model evaluation with limited labels.
method Surrogate-based estimation and active learning.
result ASEs offer greater label-efficiency than current methods for deep neural networks.
Developed moment estimators for affine stochastic volatility models.
problem Estimating parameters of affine stochastic volatility models.
method Introduced recursive equations for moments and proposed moment estimators.
result Established a central limit theorem and derived asymptotic covariance matrix.
Improved likelihood estimation for singular distributions using deep models.
problem Estimating singular distributions using deep generative models.
method Data perturbation to avoid singularity issues in likelihood estimation.
result Consistent estimation of target distribution with desirable rates.
Paper bridges score estimation to parameter and density estimation in DDPMs.
problem Efficiently estimating scores for generative models.
method Introduces a framework linking score estimation to parameter and density estimation.
result Denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient for parameter estimation.
InfoBridge uses diffusion bridges to estimate mutual information accurately.
problem Estimating mutual information between random variables.
method Formulated mutual information estimation as a domain transfer problem using diffusion bridge models.
result Demonstrated unbiased estimator for various data types.
Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models for Regression Discontinuity/Kink under Sharp and Fuzzy Designsstat.ML
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
problem Estimating causal effects in sharp and fuzzy RD/RK designs.
method Hierarchical Gaussian Process models for regression and classification.
result Hierarchical GP models improve precision and coverage of RD/RK estimations.
Hallucinations in models are mislinked estimates, not errors.
problem Hallucinations in generative models as failures to link estimates to plausible causes.
method Formalized hallucinations, showed even optimal estimators hallucinate, provided a general lower bound on hallucinate rate, reframed hallucination as structural misalignment, and experimentally supported theory.
result Hallucinations are structural misalignments between loss minimization and human-acceptable outputs, leading to estimation errors.
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
Algorithm estimates nonparametric mixtures from grouped data.
problem Estimating identifiable nonparametric mixture models from grouped observations.
method Oracle inequality for weighted kernel density estimators and general consistency result.
result Consistent estimation of mixture components from grouped observations.
Optimistic estimate predicts best fitting performance of nonlinear models.
problem Evaluating the potential of nonlinear models in fitting.
method Proposes an optimistic estimate to quantify the smallest sample size for fitting nonlinear models.
result Predicts specific subsets of targets that can be fitted at overparameterization.
Study improves estimation of rare language model outputs.
problem Estimating probabilities of rare outputs in language models.
method Importance sampling vs. activation extrapolation for low probability estimation.
result Importance sampling outperforms activation extrapolation.
Feature importance estimates that inform users about the degree to which given inputs influence the output of a predictive model are crucial for understanding, validating, and interpreting machine-learning models. However, providing fast and accurate estimates of feature importance for high-dimensional data, and quanti…
New estimators improve Rasch model item parameter estimation for sparse data.
problem Estimating item parameters in sparse Rasch model data.
method Random pairing maximum likelihood estimator (RP-MLE) and its bootstrapped variant (MRP-MLE).
result RP-MLE and MRP-MLE are minimax optimal and provide precise item parameter estimates.
Double Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Average Treatment Effects: A Comparative Studystat.ME
New methods combine machine learning with doubly robust estimators for better treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating average treatment effects from observational data.
method Doubly robust methods using machine learning techniques.
result Machine learning improves the performance of doubly robust estimators.
A fast model estimates future prices from orderbook data.
problem Estimating future prices from orderbook data.
method Hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework for fast estimation.
result Demonstrated robust estimate of future prices.
Roundtrip uses deep generative models for flexible density estimation.
problem Density estimation in statistics and machine learning.
method Roundtrip is a deep generative neural density estimator that uses flexible mappings.
result Roundtrip achieves state-of-the-art performance in density estimation tasks.
DeepBayes uses neural networks to efficiently estimate parameters in complex dynamical models.
problem Estimating parameters in stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models is challenging.
method DeepBayes leverages deep recurrent neural networks to learn an estimator that minimizes mean-squared error.
result DeepBayes achieves asymptotically equivalent performance to Bayesian estimation methods.
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.
Improved estimator reduces bias in statistical learning models.
problem Asymptotic bias in classic WDRO estimator.
method Adjusted Wasserstein distributionally robust estimator.
result Asymptotic unbiased estimator with smaller MSE.
Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to combine imputation techniques with estimators for unnormalized models including no…
Proposes ML methods for robust price-sensitivity estimation in dynamic pricing.
problem Estimating price elasticities robustly in the presence of feature-dependent sensitivity.
method Poisson semi-parametric model with two-stage estimation: first-stage ML for observed purchases, second-stage Bayesian GLM for price-sensitivity.
result Reduces estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25% to 4%.
The Kalman filter and Heston model are used to estimate asset prices and trading performance.
problem Estimating asset prices using stochastic models.
method Kalman filter applied to mean-reverting processes and Heston model with method of moments.
result The Kalman filter and Heston model provide effective methods for estimating asset prices and trading performance.