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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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121243364485 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for mixture probability measure

Finite mixture models are statistical models which appear in many problems in statistics and machine learning. In such models it is assumed that data are drawn from random probability measures, called mixture components, which are themselves drawn from a probability measure P over probability measures. When estimating …

2015-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian approach to robust risk measures under model uncertainty.

problem Representing robust risk measures as a single probability measure.
method Introducing two types of risk measures and analyzing their relation to robust risk measures.
result Robust risk measures can be represented by a mixture probability measure, a Bayesian approach.

Study on recovering supports of multiple sparse vectors from mixed linear measurements.

problem Recovering supports of multiple sparse vectors from a mixture of linear measurements.
method Developed algorithms to identify the support of all component vectors using polynomial and quasi-polynomial number of measurements.
result Polynomial and quasi-polynomial number of measurements sufficient for recovering the supports of all component vectors.

The paper calculates ruin probabilities for insurers with phase-type distributed claims.

problem Calculating ruin probabilities for insurers with specific claim distributions.
method Change-of-measure technique applied to phase-type distributed claim amounts.
result The mixture of Erlangs best fits real-world loss data, improving risk assessment.

New algorithm for fitting Gaussian mixtures using Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao geometry.

problem Hard problem of fitting Gaussian mixture models to data computationally.
method Gradient descent over Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao geometry for probability measures.
result Established convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithm.

A new method for steering large agent populations efficiently.

problem Controlling the configuration of a swarm of identical, interacting cooperative agents.
method Mean-Field Schrodinger Bridges with Gaussian Mixture Models.
result A highly efficient parameterization to approximate optimal solutions of the MFSB problem in closed form.

The paper proposes a new framework for accurate uncertainty representation and propagation.

problem Inaccurate representation and propagation of uncertainty in measurement systems.
method The paper introduces a comprehensive framework using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for representing and propagating quantitative attributes in measurement systems.
result GMMs offer improved accuracy in representing and propagating measurement uncertainty compared to traditional Gaussian methods, while maintaining computational tractability.

NPMLE estimator automatically chooses the right model complexity for Gaussian mixtures.

problem Learning mixture models and empirical Bayes estimation with non-convex likelihoods.
method Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) using complex-analytic techniques.
result NPMLE solution has O(logn)O(\log n) atoms with high probability, improving model complexity.

Paper introduces CWDAE for better synthetic data generation.

problem Measuring discrepancy between generative and ground-truth distributions.
method Introduces mixture Cramer-Wold distance for joint and marginal distributional learning.
result CWDAE shows remarkable performance in generating synthetic data.

It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with the same weights of Expected Shortfalls of the same risk positions. In this shor…

2019-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.

problem Finding the minimum number of finite Gaussian mixtures for best approximation.
method Local moment matching for upper bound and spectral analysis for lower bound.
result Corrects a previous lower bound in the case of Gaussian mixing distributions.

New tools for estimating and inferring Wasserstein distance in topic models.

problem Estimating and inferring the Wasserstein distance between mixing measures in topic models.
method New canonical interpretation and tools for inference on Wasserstein distance in topic models.
result First minimax lower bounds and fully data-driven inferential tools for the Wasserstein distance in topic models.

The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…

2012-09-15abs ↗pdf ↗

This work examines consistency issues in Gaussian Mixture Model reduction algorithms.

problem Consistency issues in Gaussian Mixture Model reduction algorithms.
method Discussion of the importance of dissimilarity measure choice and consistency of GMR algorithms.
result Most existing GMR algorithms are not consistent with a unique measure, leading to suboptimal reduced GMs.

Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.

problem Approximating probability functions of non-spherical Gaussian mixtures.
method Bayesian decomposition, spherical radial decomposition, random sampling.
result Established differentiability and integral representation of gradient for probability functions.

Bayesian approach learns nonparametric mixture components from heterogeneous data.

problem Realistic modeling of heterogeneous data populations with nonparametric mixture components.
method Bayesian nonparametric modeling using Dirichlet process mixture priors.
result Posterior contraction rates for component densities are nearly polynomial, improving over deconvolution methods.

Motivated by a recent result of Daskalakis et al. 2018, we analyze the population version of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the case of \textit{truncated} mixtures of two Gaussians. Truncated samples from a dd-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians $\frac{1}{2} \mathcal{N}(\vecμ, \vecΣ)+ \frac{1}{2} \mathca…

2019-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a Gaussian mixture model for Hilbert-space-valued data.

problem Challenges in characterizing probability measures for infinite-dimensional random objects.
method Gaussian mixture framework based on kernel mean embeddings.
result The proposed algorithm yields a dense class of approximations in infinite-dimensional spaces.

Theoretical analysis of entropy approximation for Gaussian mixtures.

problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for entropy approximation of Gaussian mixtures.
method Theoretical analysis of the error between true and approximate entropy.
result The error converges to zero as the ratios of means to variances tend to infinity, providing a guarantee for high-dimensional problems.

This paper optimizes Gaussian mixture model learning with optimal sampling complexity.

problem Learning the number of components and mixing distribution in 1D Gaussian mixtures.
method Fourier-based approach to estimate model order and mixing distribution.
result The proposed method matches the optimal sampling complexity and outperforms conventional techniques.

New method for summarizing Bayesian mixture models using sliced Wasserstein distances.

problem Estimating the mixing measure in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models.
method Decision-theoretic approach using sliced Wasserstein distances for Gaussian mixtures.
result Effective estimation of the mixing measure and mixture density.

We investigate the class of σσ-stable Poisson-Kingman random probability measures (RPMs) in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. This is a large class of discrete RPMs which encompasses most of the the popular discrete RPMs used in Bayesian nonparametrics, such as the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor p…

2014-07-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Many generative models have to combat missing modes\textit{missing modes}. The conventional wisdom to this end is by reducing through training a statistical distance (such as ff-divergence) between the generated distribution and provided data distribution. But this is more of a heuristic than a guarantee. The statistical distanc…

2019-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.

problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.

We derive relations between theoretical properties of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs), popular machine learning models which form the building blocks of deep learning models, and several natural notions from discrete mathematics and convex geometry. We give implications and equivalences relating RBM-representable …

2012-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.

problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.

Paper tackles MSDA with GMMs and OT, improving over prior art.

problem Adapting multiple heterogeneous source measures to a target measure.
method Optimal Transport between Gaussian Mixture Models, with novel barycenter calculation.
result Improves image classification and fault diagnosis benchmarks.

This paper considers the problem of measuring the credit risk in portfolios of loans, bonds, and other instruments subject to possible default under multi-factor models. Due to the amount of the portfolio, the heterogeneous effect of obligors, and the phenomena that default events are rare and mutually dependent, it is…

2017-11-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Normalized compound random measures are flexible nonparametric priors for related distributions. We consider building general nonparametric regression models using normalized compound random measure mixture models. Posterior inference is made using a novel pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler for normalized comp…

2016-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A method models continuous-time glucose distributions in children with diabetes.

problem Capturing subtle temporal changes in glucose distributions.
method Probabilistic framework using Gaussian mixtures and neural ODEs.
result Detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics.

In binary-transaction data-mining, traditional frequent itemset mining often produces results which are not straightforward to interpret. To overcome this problem, probability models are often used to produce more compact and conclusive results, albeit with some loss of accuracy. Bayesian statistics have been widely us…

2012-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel approach for estimating joint probability densities using tensor decompositions and dictionaries.

problem Estimating joint probability densities of mixed discrete and continuous variables.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition combined with dictionary learning.
result Better classification and lower error rates compared to existing methods.