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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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136273409545 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for mixture density estimation

The paper proposes a method for interpretable mixture density estimation using a tree structure.

problem Complex probability distributions in machine learning models.
method Interpretable tree structure for mixture density estimation with fast inference.
result The method achieves both high speed and interpretability for mixture density estimation.

Paper uses GMM and MAF for probabilistic classification, outperforming simpler models.

problem Classifying data with complex distributions.
method Density estimation using Gaussian Mixture Model and Masked Autoregressive Flow.
result Proposed classifiers outperform simpler models like linear discriminant analysis.

The paper introduces a new method for multivariate density estimation using deep neural mixture models.

problem Multivariate density estimation is a fundamental but underexplored task in machine learning.
method The paper extends Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate Deep Neural Mixture Models (DNMMs) using maximum-likelihood algorithm.
result The DNMMs can model any probability density function to any degree of precision and outperform traditional statistical estimation techniques.

The paper analyzes how a known density function can be deviated by a mixture distribution as more data is collected.

problem Modeling the deviation of a known density function when more data is collected.
method A novel distinguishability notion is used to establish rates of convergence for maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure.
result Rates of convergence for the maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure are established under the Wasserstein metric.

Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.

problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.

This paper studies sparse density estimation via 1\ell_1 penalization (SPADES). We focus on estimation in high-dimensional mixture models and nonparametric adaptive density estimation. We show, respectively, that SPADES can recover, with high probability, the unknown components of a mixture of probability densities an…

2009-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.

problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Algorithm estimates nonparametric mixtures from grouped data.

problem Estimating identifiable nonparametric mixture models from grouped observations.
method Oracle inequality for weighted kernel density estimators and general consistency result.
result Consistent estimation of mixture components from grouped observations.

We consider nonparametric estimation of the state price density encapsulated in option prices. Unlike usual density estimation problems, we only observe option prices and their corresponding strike prices rather than samples from the state price density. We propose to model the state price density directly with a nonpa…

2009-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for private density estimation of high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures.

problem Private density estimation for mixtures of unrestricted high-dimensional Gaussians.
method Exploits list global stability to prove upper bound on sample complexity.
result First upper bound on sample complexity for agnostic private density estimation.

EnEMF uses Epanechnikov kernel for high-dimensional filtering, improving accuracy and robustness.

problem Suboptimal Gaussian mixture kernel density estimates in high-dimensional settings.
method Ensemble Epanechnikov mixture filter (EnEMF) using optimal Epanechnikov kernel.
result EnEMF reduces error per particle on high-dimensional systems like Lorenz '96.

We introduce a balloon estimator in a generalized expectation-maximization method for estimating all parameters of a Gaussian mixture model given one data sample per mixture component. Instead of limiting explicitly the model size, this regularization strategy yields low-complexity sparse models where the number of eff…

2018-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves density estimation for compact domains using hh-lifted KL divergence.

problem Estimating probability density functions on compact domains.
method Introduced hh-lifted Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence for risk minimization.
result Proved O(1/n)\mathcal{O}(1/{\sqrt{n}}) bound on estimation error.

Mixture models are powerful statistical models used in many applications ranging from density estimation to clustering and classification. When dealing with mixture models, there are many issues that the experimenter should be aware of and needs to solve. The MixEst toolbox is a powerful and user-friendly package for M…

2015-07-22abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for estimating density ratios using geodesics on statistical manifolds.

problem Stability of density ratio estimation when distributions are distant.
method Iterative sampling along generalized geodesics on the Riemannian manifold.
result The proposed method outperforms existing incremental mixture methods.

We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractab…

2013-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

We address two shortcomings in online travel time estimation methods for congested urban traffic. The first shortcoming is related to the determination of the number of mixture modes, which can change dynamically, within day and from day to day. The second shortcoming is the wide-spread use of Gaussian probability dens…

2018-04-22abs ↗pdf ↗

In the modal approach to clustering, clusters are defined as the local maxima of the underlying probability density function, where the latter can be estimated either non-parametrically or using finite mixture models. Thus, clusters are closely related to certain regions around the density modes, and every cluster corr…

2020-02-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian models combine experts with a flexible gating mechanism for complex data.

problem Theoretical properties of Bayesian mixture-of-experts models with softmax gating remain unexplored.
method Investigated asymptotic behavior of posterior distribution for density estimation, parameter estimation, and model selection.
result Established posterior contraction rates for density estimation and parameter estimation, providing insights for practical model design.

The thesis evaluates and compares extreme mixture models in finance and insurance.

problem Estimating tail risk measures in finance and insurance.
method Extreme mixture models and methods, including kernel density estimation and GARCH preprocessing.
result Kernel density estimation-based models do not outperform others in tail risk estimation.

New insights into the top-K sparse softmax gating function for deep learning.

problem Understanding the theoretical effects of the top-K sparse softmax gating function on density and parameter estimations.
method Using a Gaussian mixture of experts, novel loss functions, and theoretical analysis.
result The convergence rates of density and parameter estimations are parametric under certain conditions, but slow under over-specified models.

New method for summarizing Bayesian mixture models using sliced Wasserstein distances.

problem Estimating the mixing measure in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models.
method Decision-theoretic approach using sliced Wasserstein distances for Gaussian mixtures.
result Effective estimation of the mixing measure and mixture density.

Novel approach for estimating joint probability densities using tensor decompositions and dictionaries.

problem Estimating joint probability densities of mixed discrete and continuous variables.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition combined with dictionary learning.
result Better classification and lower error rates compared to existing methods.

The two most extended density-based approaches to clustering are surely mixture model clustering and modal clustering. In the mixture model approach, the density is represented as a mixture and clusters are associated to the different mixture components. In modal clustering, clusters are understood as regions of high d…

2016-09-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a method to partition univariate data into unimodal subsets.

problem Partitioning univariate multimodal data into unimodal subsets.
method Recursive splitting around valley points of the data density using properties of critical points on the convex hull of the ecdf plot.
result Obtains a hierarchical statistical model of the initial dataset as a mixture of UMMs.

Solves challenges in estimating parameters of softmax gating Gaussian mixture models.

problem Identifiability issues and complex interactions in Gaussian mixture of experts.
method Proposes novel Voronoi loss functions and establishes convergence rates of MLE.
result Connects convergence rate of MLE to a solvability problem of polynomial equations.

In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a data-driven staged mixture modeling technique for building density, regression, and classification models. Our basic approach is to sequentially add components to a finite mixture model using the structural expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm. We show that our technique i…

2012-12-12abs ↗pdf ↗

A neural network method estimates densities from characteristic functions.

problem Estimating fixed-horizon probability densities from empirical characteristic functions.
method Data-driven Fourier-mixture neural-network method trained in Fourier space.
result Competitive performance and clear gains on heavy-tailed targets.

Normalized compound random measures are flexible nonparametric priors for related distributions. We consider building general nonparametric regression models using normalized compound random measure mixture models. Posterior inference is made using a novel pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler for normalized comp…

2016-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved density estimation for mixed discrete-continuous data.

problem Inconsistent density estimation for mixtures of continuous and discrete data.
method Modification of existing nonparametric density estimation methods to handle mixed discrete-continuous data.
result Improved consistency and empirical performance for mixed discrete-continuous data.

Bayesian approach learns nonparametric mixture components from heterogeneous data.

problem Realistic modeling of heterogeneous data populations with nonparametric mixture components.
method Bayesian nonparametric modeling using Dirichlet process mixture priors.
result Posterior contraction rates for component densities are nearly polynomial, improving over deconvolution methods.

Low-rank MPPCA improves importance sampling in high dimensions.

problem Estimating full-rank GMM covariance matrices in high dimensions is numerically unstable.
method Use MPPCA mixtures as low-rank proposals for importance sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
result Consistent gains in sample efficiency and quality of failure distribution characterization.