New model learns relative importance of multiple seasonal patterns in time series data.
problem Complex seasonal patterns in business time series data.
method Mixed hierarchical seasonality (MHS) model using Stan.
result Significant improvements in prediction error and predictive density compared to existing models.
A new distance for mixed-variable, hierarchical datasets with meta variables.
problem Heterogeneous datasets limit generalizability and performance in machine learning and optimization.
method Developed a modeling framework for mixed-variable and hierarchical domains with meta variables, and a novel distance function.
result The novel distance function allows comparison of heterogeneous datasets, improving model performance.
This work analyzes Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models without dimensionality constraints.
problem Analyzing convergence properties of Gibbs samplers for Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Using Bayesian asymptotics and total variation mixing times, the study provides dimension-free convergence results.
result Dimension-free convergence results for Gibbs samplers targeting hierarchical models under random data-generating assumptions.
New MMM captures hierarchical marketing effects and sign restrictions.
problem Measuring effectiveness of marketing activities with hierarchical structure and sign constraints.
method Proposes a constrained maximum likelihood approach using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm.
result Demonstrates superior performance on real datasets compared to multi-stage methods.
New method uses dendrograms for better mixture model selection and clustering.
problem Selecting the correct number of components in finite mixture models.
method Hierarchical clustering tree derived from overfitted latent mixing measures.
result Consistently selects the true number of mixing components and optimal convergence rate for parameter estimation.
Study improves maize yield prediction using BNs with mixed-effects models.
problem Limited causal inference in agronomic data models.
method Integrates random effects into Bayesian networks, leveraging hierarchical data structure.
result Significantly reduces maize yield prediction error from 28% to 17%.
Paper develops federated GLMM algorithms for analyzing hierarchical data.
problem Analyzing hierarchical data with non-independent observations in a federated setting.
method Developed two federated GLMM algorithms using Laplace and Gaussian Hermite approximations.
result Federated GLMM can handle hierarchical data and achieve comparable or superior performance.
We define a family of kernels for mixed continuous/discrete hierarchical parameter spaces and show that they are positive definite.
A new method for blind source separation using hierarchical structure and KL divergence.
problem Blind source separation of complex interacting signals.
method Hierarchical log-linear model with KL divergence minimization.
result Superior performance compared to existing techniques on images and time series data.
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is possible to predict the outcome of cricket matches. The target competition was t…
CSP improves time-series forecasting without training, outperforming DeepNPTS in speed and accuracy.
problem Improving probabilistic time-series forecasting without training.
method Mixing empirical and residual draws around a seasonal naive forecast.
result CSP significantly outperforms DeepNPTS on CRPS, normalized mean quantile loss, and coverage metrics.
New method optimizes mixed integer optimization for hierarchical modeling of clustered and longitudinal data.
problem Optimizing subset selection in hierarchical models with clustered and longitudinal data.
method Distribution-free mixed-integer optimization approach for cluster-aware regression.
result The method efficiently solves problems within minutes and outperforms traditional models in generating sparse solutions with high predictive power.
Advanced travel information and warning, if provided accurately, can help road users avoid traffic congestion through dynamic route planning and behavior change. It also enables traffic control centres mitigate the impact of congestion by activating Intelligent Transport System (ITS) proactively. Deep learning has beco…
OMERF extends random forest for hierarchical data and ordinal responses.
problem Analyzing hierarchical data and ordinal responses using tree-based methods.
method Ordinal Mixed-Effects Random Forest (OMERF) that preserves flexibility and hierarchical structure.
result OMERF identifies discriminating student characteristics and estimates school effects.
A new method clusters qualitative data with mixed variables, improving interpretability.
problem Clustering qualitative data with context and high-dimensional mixed datasets.
method Hierarchical Qualitative Clustering (HQC) using Maximum Mean Discrepancy.
result HQC maintains interpretability of qualitative information and clusters effectively.
Paper tackles NAS problem by modeling it as a sparse supernet.
problem Neural Architecture Search (NAS) problem, particularly Mixed-Path Search.
method Model NAS as a sparse supernet with sparsity constraints. Use hierarchical accelerated proximal gradient algorithm for optimization.
result Proposed method finds compact, general, and powerful neural architectures.
Novel algorithm SAODE improves high-dimensional stream classification in seasonal data.
problem Handling seasonal concept drift in high-dimensional stream classification.
method SAODE classifier that includes time as a super parent to handle seasonal drift.
result SAODE consistently outperforms other methods in stream and concept drift classification.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
A scalable Bayesian inference method for mixed-effects models in systems biology.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference for complex hierarchical mixed-effects models in systems biology.
method Constructing amortized approximations of likelihood and posterior distributions, refined for each individual dataset.
result Our method is both fast and competitive in statistical accuracy compared to exact pseudomarginal Bayesian inference.
Bayesian models that mix multiple Dirichlet prior parameters, called Multi-Dirichlet priors (MD) in this paper, are gaining popularity. Inferring mixing weights and parameters of mixed prior distributions seems tricky, as sums over Dirichlet parameters complicate the joint distribution of model parameters. This paper s…
Novel ML approach solves complex warehouse routing problem.
problem Efficiently routing pickers in mixed-shelves warehouses.
method Hierarchical and parallel multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result State-of-the-art performance in solution quality and inference speed.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
We propose a mixed deep neural network strategy, incorporating parallel combination of Convolutional (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), cascaded with deep autoencoders and fully connected layers towards automatic identification of imagined speech from EEG. Instead of utilizing raw EEG channel data, we compute t…
metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.
problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.
HANET combines LSTM and attention mechanisms for better financial forecasting.
problem Lack of distinct macroeconomic regimes in financial datasets.
method Hierarchical Cross-Attention mechanism integrating long-run macro contexts with high-frequency market dynamics.
result HANET outperforms neural forecasters, especially during turbulent periods.
Framework improves resilience in operations through joint long-term and short-term decision-making.
problem Resilient operations in global markets require adaptive decision rules.
method Developed a two-timescale hierarchical reinforcement learning framework.
result Framework increases mean profit by 9.2% under joint demand-supply shocks and 11.8% under prolonged shocks.
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
Neural models improve GLMMs for complex data.
problem Nonlinear relationships in grouped data.
method Replaced linear function with neural networks.
result Improved performance on synthetic and real-world data.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and five different specifications of the seasonality pattern are proposed. We calcula…
LSTM-MSNet forecasts time series with multiple seasonal patterns using a unified model.
problem Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal cycles.
method Decomposition-based, unified prediction framework using LSTM.
result LSTM-MSNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various datasets.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston volatility process that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. First, we give conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined. These conditions appear to be rather mild. Second, we…
New model detects anomalies robustly in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series.
problem Detecting anomalies in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series data.
method Proposes Robust Seasonal Multivariate Generative Adversarial Network (RSM-GAN).
result Improves robustness and precision in detecting anomalies.
Decomposing complex time series into trend, seasonality, and remainder components is an important task to facilitate time series anomaly detection and forecasting. Although numerous methods have been proposed, there are still many time series characteristics exhibiting in real-world data which are not addressed properl…
Robust algorithm detects season length without parameters.
problem Automatic detection of season length in time series.
method Interpolating, filtering, detrending followed by autocorrelation analysis.
result Outperforms existing algorithms in practical applications.
Unified framework for modeling hierarchical spaces in design problems.
problem Challenges in modeling hierarchical, conditional, heterogeneous, or tree-structured domains.
method Unified framework combining feature modeling and graph theory, introducing meta and partially-decreed variables.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on complex system design problems, including neural networks and green-aircraft.
Deep model forecasts correlated multivariate time series.
problem Forecasting correlated multivariate time series.
method Deep learning structural model using CNN-LSTM architecture.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various time series data sets.
Study introduces a probabilistic framework for air-sea fluxes using neural networks.
problem Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes for understanding interactions and improving weather/climate models.
method Gaussian distributions conditioned on input variables, artificial neural networks, eddy-covariance data, minimizing negative log-likelihood loss.
result Trained neural networks provide alternative mean flux estimates and quantify uncertainty.
Modeling daily river flow distribution with seasonal and long-term trends.
problem Capturing both seasonal and gradual long-term changes in environmental variables.
method Distributional regression using GAMLSS framework to estimate daily distribution of river flows.
result Model successfully captures seasonal variation and long-term trends in river flow data.
Paper improves Bayesian network learning from related data sets.
problem Learning from heterogeneous data sets with different probabilistic structures.
method Mixed-effects models to pool information across related data sets.
result Mixed-effects models outperform traditional methods in accuracy.
New Krylov subspace methods speed up mixed-effects models with crossed random effects.
problem Slow computations for high-dimensional crossed random effects in mixed-effects models.
method Krylov subspace-based methods for generalized mixed-effects models with cross effects.
result Speedups by factors of up to 10,000 in computations for mixed-effects models.
This paper proposes a new approach to Transformers by integrating hierarchical associative memory with MetaFormers.
problem Theoretical framework for Transformers and MLP-Mixers remains underdeveloped.
method Integrating hierarchical associative memory with MetaFormers to create a parallelized MLP-Mixer.
result Symmetry-breaking effects improve the performance of the MLP-Mixer in image recognition tasks.
New RDPC dissimilarity measure improves time series clustering.
problem Improving time series clustering methods for diverse data.
method Combining weighted Pearson correlation with largest element-wise differences.
result RDPC outperforms existing methods in complex datasets.
ST-MTM models complex time series by decomposing and masking seasonal and trend components.
problem Forecasting complex time series with intricate temporal variations.
method Seasonal-Trend Decomposition with Masking and Contrastive Learning.
result ST-MTM achieves superior forecasting performance compared to existing methods.
Deep learning models perform variably across continents/seasons in land cover mapping.
problem Variability in deep learning model performance across different continents/seasons.
method Clustering techniques on satellite imagery from different continents.
result Model performance varies significantly between different continents/seasons.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
We propose an exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and its associated mixture models (Teh et al., 2006). Although there are existing MCMC algorithms for sampling from the HDP, a slice sampler has been missing from the literature. Slice sampling is well-known for its desirable properties includin…
Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.
problem Lack of robust seasonal predictions due to limited historical records and computational constraints.
method Combines variational inference with transformer models trained on climate model output.
result Method provides skilful predictions beyond climate change-induced trends in various regions.