A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Novel concentration inequalities are obtained for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We derive distribution-free deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass and improve the results of Berend and Kontorovich (2013) and Yari Saeed…
We are concerned with obtaining novel concentration inequalities for the missing mass, i.e. the total probability mass of the outcomes not observed in the sample. We not only derive - for the first time - distribution-free Bernstein-like deviation bounds with sublinear exponents in deviation size for missing mass, but …
In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the outcomes that have not been seen in a given sample which is an important quantity…
Given n samples from a population of individuals belonging to different types with unknown proportions, how do we estimate the probability of discovering a new type at the (n+1)-th draw? This is a classical problem in statistics, commonly referred to as the missing mass estimation problem. Recent results by Ohannes…
This paper shows that one cannot learn the probability of rare events without imposing further structural assumptions. The event of interest is that of obtaining an outcome outside the coverage of an i.i.d. sample from a discrete distribution. The probability of this event is referred to as the "missing mass". The impo…
GT estimator shows convergence for Markov samples, improving i.i.d. results.
problem Estimating missing mass in Markov samples.
method Analyzed convergence of Good-Turing estimator for Markov samples, considering spectral properties of transition matrices.
result The convergence of the GT estimator for Markov samples depends on the spectral properties of the transition matrices, leading to a new minimax rate of 1/(nβ5) for rank-2 Markov chains.
We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates pathologies in existing adaptive methods. ITs adaptively sample from hierarchica…
The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take …
We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and on the Good-Turing missing mass estimator. We prove two different regret bounds on t…
Research on nearest-neighbor methods tends to focus somewhat dichotomously either on the statistical or the computational aspects -- either on, say, Bayes consistency and rates of convergence or on techniques for speeding up the proximity search. This paper aims at bridging these realms: to reap the advantages of fast …
We prove directly without using a density theorem that (i) the ADM mass defined in the usual way on an asymptotically flat manifold is equal to the mass defined intrinsically using Ricci tensor; (ii) the Hamiltonian formulation of center of mass and the center of mass defined intrinsically using Ricci tensor are the sa…
On asymptotically flat and asymptotically hyperbolic manifolds, by evaluating the total mass via the Ricci tensor, we show that the limits of certain Brown-York type and Hawking type quasi-local mass integrals equal the total mass of the manifold in all dimensions.